By Obinna Uballa
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied about 92 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol in February 2026 as the Federal Government halted the issuance of import licences for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), signalling a major shift in the country’s fuel supply structure.
However, despite a recent reduction in the refinery’s ex-depot price, petrol continued to sell above N1,200 per litre at filling stations across parts of the country on Tuesday.
Multiple sources within the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and among oil marketing firms confirmed that no licence for petrol importation has been issued so far this year.
According to officials of the regulator, the decision reflects the growing capacity of domestic refineries to meet Nigeria’s fuel needs.
“It’s correct that we’ve not issued import licences this year. Local production is currently sufficient to meet national demand, so there is no need for imports,” an NMDPRA official said.
Data contained in the regulator’s February 2026 fact sheet shows that local refineries supplied about 36.5 million litres of petrol per day during the month, while imports accounted for just three million litres daily.
This brought the country’s average daily supply to about 39.5 million litres, with domestic refining accounting for roughly 92 per cent of the total supply.
Industry data indicate that the Dangote facility is currently the only refinery producing petrol in the country, while several modular refineries focus largely on the production of diesel.
The figures mark a sharp departure from Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on imported fuel. In January 2026, for instance, petrol imports averaged 24.8 million litres per day, while domestic refineries supplied 40.1 million litres daily, pushing total supply to 64.9 million litres per day.
But by February, imports dropped dramatically, leading to a sharp decline in overall supply. According to the NMDPRA, petrol supply fell by 25.4 million litres per day month-on-month due largely to the collapse of imports.
The regulator noted in its report that the reduction reflected a “significant drop in imports” as domestic refining capacity increased.
Historical data also illustrate the scale of the shift.
In December 2025, petrol imports averaged 42.2 million litres per day compared to 32 million litres supplied locally, bringing total daily supply to about 74.2 million litres.
Imports also peaked at 52.1 million litres per day in November 2025 when demand surged.
But the ramp-up of local production by the Dangote refinery towards the end of 2025 began to reverse the trend, with domestic output rising significantly in recent months.
Industry analysts say the development could reshape Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector by reducing the demand for foreign exchange used for fuel imports and strengthening local refining.
However, some stakeholders have raised concerns that the growing dominance of a single refinery could create monopolistic tendencies in the market.
An oil industry operator, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the issue, warned that the absence of imports could weaken competition.
“The regulator has not issued any licence for petrol imports this year. Dangote is gradually enjoying a monopoly in the downstream sector, and monopolies are rarely healthy for any industry,” Punch Newspaper quoted the operator as saying.
He added that previous reports suggested imported petrol had sometimes been cheaper than locally refined products.
“The concern is that if competition disappears completely, consumers could ultimately bear the consequences,” he noted.
Meanwhile, the Dangote refinery on Tuesday reduced its petrol gantry price by N100, from N1,175 to N1,075 per litre.
Despite the adjustment, retail prices remained largely unchanged at filling stations.
A survey across parts of Lagos, Ogun and the Federal Capital Territory showed petrol selling between N1,200 and N1,330 per litre as marketers delayed passing the reduction on to consumers.
The price adjustment followed a decline in global oil prices as Brent crude dropped below $90 per barrel after briefly exceeding $100 earlier in the week.
According to industry reports, global oil prices surged initially due to tensions linked to the conflict involving the United States and Iran, before retreating amid hopes of a diplomatic resolution.
The refinery said the new pricing structure reflected the drop in international crude prices and demonstrated its commitment to fair pricing.
The company explained that its refined products are priced based on global crude benchmarks and prevailing foreign exchange rates, noting that the crude supplied under the government’s naira-for-crude arrangement is also priced according to international market standards.
Despite the current price pressures, the refinery assured Nigerians that fuel supply would remain stable and adequate for domestic consumption.
The company also noted that in 2025 it reduced its petrol price several times while raising it only twice, describing the policy as part of its commitment to supporting the Nigerian economy and improving energy security.
