By Obinna Uballa
As Anambra residents go to the polls on Saturday, November 8, 2025, the political momentum appears to tilt in favour of the incumbent governor, Prof. Chukwuma Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), who is seeking a second term. While 16 candidates are on the ballot, political permutations, party structures, and local dynamics suggest that Soludo holds a significant advantage going into the election.
A major factor working in his favour is Anambra’s longstanding zoning arrangement. Since 2006, a rotation principle informally agreed among political stakeholders has guided the governorship seat across the three senatorial districts: North, South and Central.
Soludo, who hails from Anambra South, has served one term. The understanding among influential groups in Anambra Central – home to the state’s largest voting bloc – is that supporting Soludo’s return in 2025 ensures that the governorship shifts to their zone in 2029. Electing a new governor from the South would reset the rotation and delay the Central’s turn until 2033.
“For me, and for many of us from the Central, Soludo should be supported to complete the turn of the South so that power will shift to the Central,” said Chidi Nwafor, a business owner and political observer in Awka.
“I believe that Soludo will win. Yes, he has his issues. He has angered a lot of people, but he has a lot going for him. If you watch closely, top political figures from other zones are quietly backing him too. Osita Chidoka, who is from the Central, has since joined APGA, hoping to contest after Soludo completes second term . That’s how it works. That what Soludo did when Obiano was running for second term.”
Observers say this calculation is expected to shape voting patterns. Although Soludo’s main challengers – Nicholas Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), George Moghalu of Labour Party (LP), and John Nwosu (African Democratic Congress (ADC) – are also from the South, the fear of disrupting the zoning balance is likely to consolidate support in favour of the incumbent.
Meanwhile, the Young Progressives Party’s Paul Chukwuma, from Anambra North, judging by feedback from voters, is expected to perform strongly in his home base but lacks wider statewide reach.
Beyond zoning, APGA’s entrenched political machinery remains a key advantage. The party has held the governorship for nearly two decades and maintains deep grassroots networks across all 21 local government areas. Political analysts say APGA’s ward structures are robust, well-funded, and coordinated, an advantage especially in mobilising turnout in a state where voter apathy has historically been high.
This organisational strength also ties into concerns raised by opposition parties regarding vote buying. Critics accuse the Soludo campaign of using financial incentives to drive voter mobilisation, an allegation APGA strongly denies, insisting its strategy is focused on encouraging participation and preventing the “complacency of the majority.”
Still, in an election where turnout may again determine the winner, financial capacity is likely to play a decisive role, and APGA is widely regarded as having the deepest war chest.
Soludo’s relationship with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has also softened partisan edges in the run-up to the election. APGA is aligned with the ruling APC at the federal level, and both men have maintained cordial working relations. This has encouraged a level of cooperation among federal agencies and reduced expectations of hostile federal interference during the vote, an advantage in a region where fears of security disruptions often influence turnout.
Security agencies, led by the police, have deployed 45,000 personnel statewide, while INEC has promised early movement of materials to 5,718 polling units. However, observers say the credibility of the process will depend heavily on curbing vote buying and ensuring that security operatives act impartially.
With strong party structure, incumbent advantage, strategic zoning sentiment, financial capacity, and a stabilising relationship with Abuja, the odds appear to favour Soludo securing a second term. Yet, the final outcome rests with voter turnout, the variable that has shaped every recent election in Anambra.
