By Obinna Uballa
The United States recorded a $1.45bn goods trade surplus with Nigeria in the first 10 months of 2025, marking a dramatic reversal from a deficit position a year earlier, as American exports to Nigeria surged while imports from Nigeria declined, according to the latest US trade data.
Figures released by the US Census Bureau show that between January and October 2025, the US exported $5.94bn worth of goods to Nigeria and imported $4.49bn, resulting in a $1.447bn surplus in America’s favour.
This represents a sharp turnaround from the same period in 2024, when the US ran a $1.367bn trade deficit with Nigeria.
In October 2025 alone, the US posted a $162m surplus, exporting $532m worth of goods to Nigeria and importing $369m. This was higher than the $116m surplus recorded in September, reflecting a month-on-month improvement of nearly 40 per cent, largely driven by falling imports rather than rising exports.
Between September and October, US imports from Nigeria fell by $171m (31.7 per cent), while exports to Nigeria declined by $124m (18.9 per cent). The sharper contraction in imports widened the surplus despite weaker export volumes.
A year-on-year comparison highlights the scale of the shift. In October 2024, the US recorded a $103m trade deficit with Nigeria, exporting $295m and importing $398m. By October 2025, that position had flipped to a $162m surplus.
Over the same period, US exports to Nigeria jumped by $237m, or 80.3 per cent, while imports from Nigeria fell by $29m, or 7.3 per cent, underscoring that the turnaround was driven mainly by stronger US export performance.
On a cumulative basis, US exports to Nigeria rose from $3.71bn in the first 10 months of 2024 to $5.94bn in 2025 — an increase of $2.23bn, or 60.2 per cent. Meanwhile, imports from Nigeria declined from $5.07bn to $4.49bn, down $582m, or 11.5 per cent.
Nigeria’s trade reversal played a notable role in reshaping US–Africa trade dynamics in 2025. While the US still posted a year-to-date goods trade deficit of $3.74bn with Africa as a whole, Nigeria stood out as one of the few major economies on the continent where the US recorded a sizeable surplus.
Total US exports to Africa reached $34.08bn in the first 10 months of 2025, compared with imports of $37.82bn. Nigeria alone absorbed $5.94bn of US exports, about 17.4 per cent of the total, while supplying $4.49bn worth of goods, or 11.9 per cent of US imports from Africa.
In October, Nigeria accounted for 15.6 per cent of US exports to Africa and 12.8 per cent of imports. More significantly, it contributed roughly 31 per cent of Africa’s total US trade surplus for the month, highlighting its growing importance to America’s improving trade position on the continent.
Without Nigeria’s $1.447bn year-to-date surplus, the US trade deficit with Africa would have widened to about $5.18bn, meaning Nigeria offset nearly 28 per cent of America’s shortfall with the rest of the continent.
Among key African partners, only Egypt recorded a larger US trade surplus. The US posted a $5.43bn surplus with Egypt in 2025, exporting $7.88bn and importing $2.44bn. Nigeria ranked second, ahead of Algeria and South Africa, both of which remained in deficit positions.
South Africa continued to be the largest drag on US–Africa trade, with a year-to-date deficit of $9.22bn, as the US imported $14.67bn worth of goods while exporting just $5.45bn. Algeria recorded a $1.09bn deficit, while other African countries combined posted a $299m deficit.
The broader African picture also improved month-on-month. In October 2024, the US recorded a $467m trade deficit with Africa. By October 2025, this had shifted to a $523m surplus, representing a $990m swing within a year, again driven mainly by reduced imports.
The changing trade patterns have unfolded against the backdrop of renewed US protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies associated with President Donald Trump, which have influenced global sourcing decisions and trade flows.
While the US trade report does not directly attribute Nigeria’s figures to tariffs, the surplus coincided with Washington’s implementation of a “reciprocal” tariff regime, under which Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The order, issued in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025.
Although crude oil exports were largely exempted, the higher duty applies to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand both before and after the policy took effect.
Reacting earlier, President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria would remain resilient despite US trade policies, arguing that rising non-oil revenues would cushion external shocks. “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side,” he said.
Similarly, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would not be rushed into retaliatory measures. “Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu,” she said, adding that non-oil exports grew by 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.
Economists and trade stakeholders have also urged Nigeria to see the tariffs as an opportunity to diversify markets, deepen AfCFTA engagement, and expand partnerships with countries such as Brazil, China, Japan and the UAE, while reducing dependence on the US market.
