By Abiola Olawale
In a significant boost, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook to 4.4%, reflecting a growing confidence in the country’s mid-term economic recovery.
According to the January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, this revision marks a 0.2 percentage point increase from previous projections. The Fund cited a combination of aggressive macroeconomic stabilization, sustained reform momentum, and improved security in oil-producing regions as the primary drivers behind the optimistic shift.
The IMF’s decision to raise its expectations is rooted in the “shaking off” of previous trade disruptions and the positive impact of domestic policy shifts. Key sectors such as telecommunications, financial services, and agriculture have shown remarkable resilience.
The IMF said Nigeria’s improved outlook mirrors a broader pickup across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is projected to reach 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027. The Fund attributed the regional performance to “macroeconomic stabilisation and continued reform efforts” across key economies.
At the global level, the IMF projected growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, noting that the world economy remains resilient despite persistent uncertainties. The outlook, the Fund said, reflects a “balancing of divergent forces,” as the negative effects of changing trade policies are being offset by rising investment in technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
For Nigeria, the IMF identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook. The Fund projected that “energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026,” largely due to weak global demand.
