By Obinna Uballa
Femi Otedola, billionaire businessman and chairman of First Bank Holdings has projected that the naira could appreciate to below N1,000 to the United States dollar before the end of 2026, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
Otedola made the projection in a post on X on Thursday while congratulating Aliko Dangote on the refinery’s milestone, describing the development as transformational for Nigeria and the African continent.
According to market sources, the naira, which has gained strength in recent weeks, was trading at about N1,354 to the dollar at the official foreign exchange market on Thursday and between N1,430 and N1,440 at the parallel market, its strongest levels in more than two years.
Otedola noted that the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily would significantly alter Nigeria’s energy outlook and conserve scarce foreign exchange previously used for fuel imports.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he said.
“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach.”
Beyond the current output, Otedola revealed that Dangote is embarking on an additional $12 billion expansion project to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will also include plans to produce 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of linear alkyl benzene, a key ingredient used in detergent production.
He added that work on the expansion had already commenced.
The refinery’s achievement comes amid ongoing efforts by authorities to stabilise Nigeria’s volatile foreign exchange market. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently introduced measures aimed at improving liquidity and narrowing the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates.
