By Obinna Uballa
The escalating conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States is rapidly reshaping global energy dynamics, triggering a surge in demand for refined petroleum products across Africa and placing the Dangote Refinery at the centre of the continent’s fuel supply response.
As tensions in the Gulf region intensify, crude oil prices have climbed sharply, nearing $120 per barrel, while disruptions to key shipping routes – particularly the Strait of Hormuz – have tightened global supply chains. The resulting pressure has forced African countries to increasingly rely on local refining capacity, with the Lagos-based Dangote facility emerging as a critical stabilising force.
Reflecting the shifting market conditions, the refinery on Friday announced a fresh increase in its ex-depot petrol price from N1,175 to N1,245 per litre, while its coastal price rose to N1,606,518 per metric tonne. The new pricing, which took effect from midnight on March 21, was attributed to rising crude costs and heightened geopolitical risks.
President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, described the situation as volatile and unpredictable.
“It’s a crazy situation right now,” he said, noting that the ongoing crisis is likely to sustain upward pressure on prices. “And I think it will continue for a while.”
The refinery, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day – the largest in Africa – has seen demand spike sharply from across the continent as countries scramble to secure fuel supplies.
“People are ready to pay anything now,” Dangote revealed, underscoring the intensity of competition for available products amid tightening supply.
The development highlights the growing strategic importance of the refinery, which has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products while easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves. According to Dangote, the facility has become indispensable to the country’s economic stability.
“Nigeria would have been at a standstill now without the refinery,” he said.
Beyond immediate supply concerns, Dangote framed the refinery as a cornerstone of Africa’s broader industrial future, stressing the need for self-reliance in critical sectors.
“If we Africans don’t lead in the industrialisation of Africa, Africa will never industrialise,” he said, calling for increased local investment in infrastructure and manufacturing.
The refinery’s scale and integrated design – featuring extensive storage, a dedicated port, and even an airstrip under development – have made it one of the most ambitious private-sector projects on the continent.
“Actually we are building a runway there. Nobody believes something like this exists in Africa,” Dangote added.
The ongoing crisis has further amplified the facility’s relevance, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz – through which a significant portion of global oil shipments passes – remains under threat. Disruptions in the corridor have not only affected crude supplies but also fertiliser and petrochemical trade, areas where the Dangote complex is also active.
Looking ahead, Dangote signalled plans to expand refining capacity and list a portion of the business on both the Nigerian and international capital markets, including the London Stock Exchange. He also outlined ambitions to use gas from the complex to power nearby industries, potentially transforming the surrounding area into a major industrial hub.
The group’s expansion plans extend beyond Nigeria. It has announced investments in fertiliser production in Ethiopia, as well as cement, power, and mining projects across several African countries, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Despite the scale of these ambitions, Dangote expressed scepticism about the ability of other African nations to replicate such projects.
“I can’t see any African country today building a refinery,” he said. “Even when they have the capital, they are scared to invest. We are not.”
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to shape the global outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that Washington may be nearing the end of its military campaign against Iran, signalling a possible shift in strategy.
“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East,” Trump said, adding that the U.S. had significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities.
He also called on countries that depend on the Strait of Hormuz to take greater responsibility for securing the vital shipping route.
“The United States does not [need to police it],” he said. “If asked, we will help… but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
Trump, however, criticised members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for failing to support U.S. operations, describing them as “cowards” in a social media post.
“Without the USA, NATO is a paper tiger,” he wrote, accusing allies of complaining about high oil prices while avoiding military involvement.
Amid the tensions, the United Kingdom has authorised the U.S. to use its military bases to carry out strikes on Iranian missile sites targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, further underscoring the global stakes of the conflict.
