. APC Steers Soaring Lead in 3 LGAs, PDP Tops in 2…
By Hamilton Nwosa( Head, The New Diplomat’s Poll Trackers)
With just 12 days to the November 16 Bayelsa State Governorship election, the two leading political parties in the polls, the All Progressives Congress(APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) are going for broke over who wins Yenagoa, the local government with the highest number of registered voters( 199,895 registered voters, and 180,263 have already collected their PVCs ). The battle over Yenagoa between APC’s governorship candidate ,Chief David Lyon and PDP’s Senator Douye Diri shows both candidates are locked in an intense too-close-call electoral war with both candidates still holding firmly to their traditional political strongholds.
The New Diplomat ‘s findings show that APC’s governorship candidate, Chief Lyon is consolidating very firmly in Southern Ijaw,( with 165,449 registered voters and 164,844 with PVCs), Nembe (92,717 registered voters, and 89,866 with PVCs), and Brass (with 67,804 registered voters , and 65,900 already with their PVCs) while Ogbia( former President Goodluck Jonathan’s LGA with 109.903 registered voters and 108,069 with PVCs) is tilting progressively towards APC. In Ekeremor ( with 125,189 registered voters, and 123,562 already with their PVCs), the APC is reported to be recording serious political gains with the likes of Rt Hon Peremobowei, Ebebi, a two-time former Deputy Governor of Bayelsa State, two-time Speaker of the State House of Assembly and Director- General of Chief Timi Alaibe’s( Alaibe was the Jonathans preferred candidate and acknowledged best choice for PDP) Campaign Organization, and foundation member of PDP, decamping to the APC.
The New Diplomat gathered that the PDP is equally throwing all its arsenal into the battle for the soul of Bayelsa State with Governor Henry Seriake Dickson practically going down on his knees, reaching out to Bukola Saraki and Atiku Abubakar to plead with Mrs Patience Jonathan(the former First Lady is perceived as the real politician while her husband, former President Jonathan is regarded more as a Statesman), Chief Timi Alaibe and Chief Turner, Jonathan’s key ally, to forgive him for his alleged political slips. As at last count, The New Diplomat checks reveal that the PDP gubernatorial candidate, Senator Douye Diri, has consolidated his hold quitely strongly in Sagbama ( with 109 registered voters, and 105,705 with their PVCs), and Kolokuma|Opokuma( with 52,765 registered voters, and 50,477 with their PVCs) while battling to record statistical gains in Yenagoa. An insider confided in The New Diplomat that the situation in Kolokuma|Opokuma is curiously hazy with the likelihood that it could oscillate either PDP or APC. He said: “ The situation as at today is very dicey . As I speak with you, even Kolokuma|Opokuma, which is Senator Douye Diri’s home base is being threatened because that is the political fortress of Chief Alaibe…And that LGA may go either way(PDP or APC) depending on which side Alaibe swings the pendulum…In Ogbia, It’s still not clear if Mrs Patience Jonathan can forgive Governor Dickson after subjecting her husband to political humiliation by arrogating all powers to produce both the governorship candidate and his running mate all to himself . Dickson was told by the Jonathans to allow Alaibe have the PDP ticket because he was the best choice for PDP. So the situation in Ogbia is still that it’s leaning towards APC on a daily basis.”
Going by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s figures, 867,088 eligible voters are expected to cast their votes in the election with a total of 33,874 registered voters still yet to collect their PVCs as at today.
The New Diplomat learnt that in the case of Yenagoa LGA, it’s still a too-close-to call, terrific race between APC and PDP candidates with their supporters fighting tooth-and-nail to gain dominance. The result is that both parties are still projected to amass 48% (PDP) and 48% (APC), respectively in Yenagoa. Investigations show that The New Diplomat’s last survey findings, which indicated both APC and PDP cresting in a head-and-head electoral war with existing political dynamics tipping the scales progressively in APC’s favour with a projected 55% votes triumph over PDP’s estimated 41% votes haven’t changed. Most people also believe the November 16 governorship poll symbolizes an epic battle between the APC being led by Minister of State for Petroleum and former Bayelsa State Governor, Chief Timipre Sylva and the PDP which is under the leadership of Bayelsa State Governor, Hon Henry Seriake Dickson .
The New Diplomat checks reveal that though both APC and PDP are currently locked in a neck-and-neck battle over Yenagoa LGA, the APC is still coasting home with strong statistical and political consolidation in Southern Ijaw, (Lyon), Brass(Sylva), Nembe(Amange) while Ogbia(Jonathans), and Ekeremor(Ebebi) are leaning progressively toward the APC. In contrast, the PDP is currently holding firmly only to Sagbama(Dickson) and Kolokuma|Opokuma (Diri|Alaibe), while throwing all its arsenal into Yenagoa to make impressive political nad statistical gains. As at today, Yenagoa is precisely up in the air!
NB: The New Diplomat would be updating its survey in the coming days as we move closer to the November 16 governorship polls. The New Diplomat Inc’s Poll Tracking team will aggregate all field data from across all the eight LGAs in Bayelsa State, and officially released polling data by INEC, including number of registered voters, expected voters with PVCs, population figures by both NPC and NBS, voting strength of various LGAs, etc. Our Poll Tracking Team would then develop a Hybrid Poll tracking methodology that would combine different survey methods to arrive at a verdict. The Hybrid approach include sampled respondents, focus groups interviews, coding, field questionnaires, telephone interviews, reputation audit, etc.
