By Obinna Uballa
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell sharply to 1.31 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, a 10.7 percent decline from 1.45 million bpd the previous month, according to the latest data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The decline comes at a time when global oil prices have surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude briefly crossing $100 per barrel on March 9 – the highest since July 2022 – before easing to around $87 the following day.
Analysts warn that Nigeria’s reduced output could limit the country’s ability to capitalise on the rising oil prices, even as domestic consumers continue to face higher fuel costs.
OPEC’s monthly report, released on Wednesday, showed that Nigeria fell short of its 1.5 million bpd production quota by approximately 190,000 bpd. Despite the drop, the country maintained its position as Africa’s largest oil producer, slightly ahead of Libya, which produced 1.28 million bpd.
The oil alliance said its figures were sourced directly from Nigerian authorities, noting that OPEC typically relies on both direct communication with member states and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms. Secondary data placed Nigeria’s February output at 1.46 million bpd, representing a smaller decline of 0.68 percent from 1.47 million bpd in January.
OPEC also reported that total crude production among member nations averaged 42.72 million bpd in February, up 445,000 bpd month-on-month.
On March 2, OPEC and allied producers agreed to raise output by 206,000 bpd starting in April to help stabilise global markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Industry observers note that Nigeria’s declining output could weigh heavily on government revenues and foreign exchange earnings, preventing the country from fully benefiting from the global price rally.
With oil revenue accounting for a significant portion of Nigeria’s budget, the production shortfall underscores ongoing challenges in maintaining consistent crude output amid technical, infrastructural, and security constraints.
