OPEC+ is inclined to restart output hikes from April following a first-quarter pause.
The group’s demand outlook sharply exceeds the IEA’s more cautious forecast for 2026.
Low global inventories and geopolitical tensions are supporting prices ahead of the March 1 meeting.
Ahead of the monthly meeting on March 1, the OPEC+ alliance is leaning toward resuming production increases from April following a pause in the first quarter, Reuters reported on Friday, quoting sources within the group.
Early this month, the eight OPEC+ members that have been implementing cuts since 2023 – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – reaffirmed the decision to pause monthly increments during the first quarter of the year.
The decision was first taken in November 2025 and was confirmed at two consecutive meetings in December and January.
The group has decided to wait out the first quarter of the year, typically the weakest quarter for demand of any year. So far this quarter, geopolitical flare-ups have supported oil prices. These include, so far, the new oil order in Venezuela, the situation in Iran, and the pace of Russian supply amid the U.S. sanctions on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil and the EU ban on imports of oil products processed from Russian crude.
But ahead of the meeting on March 1, OPEC+ producers are inclined to re-launch the hikes, although no decision has been taken yet, according to Reuters’ sources.
Reports of a potential increase come days after OPEC reiterated in its monthly report earlier this week that global oil demand will grow by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026—an estimate that’s well ahead of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) freshly-reduced forecast of 850,000 bpd growth.
Last month, Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi oil giant Aramco, dismissed the glut narrative saying that forecasts of a massive oil glut are seriously exaggerated as demand keeps rising and global stocks are below the five-year average.
Global oil stocks are low, while the amassed barrels in floating storage on tankers are mostly sanctioned supplies, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm and top crude exporter said at the end of January.
Credit: Oilprice.com
