Western leaders pivot to China as US tariffs fuel trade uncertainty

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By Obinna Uballa

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer has become the latest Western leader to seek closer trade ties with China, reflecting growing unease over US tariff volatility under Donald Trump and a desire to secure investment and market access.

Starmer’s visit to Beijing this week, aimed at promoting “pragmatic co-operation,” follows similar moves by the leaders of Canada, Ireland, France, and Finland, many of whom were visiting China for the first time in years, according to AFP report.

Analysts describe the pattern as a race among Western governments to strengthen ties with Beijing ahead of upcoming China-US summits in February and April.

“There is a veritable race among European heads of government to meet Xi Jinping,” Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy told AFP. “It is driven by internal rivalry to secure investments and market access before the China-US summits.”

The shift toward China comes alongside other major trade developments. On Tuesday, India and the European Union finalized a long-awaited Free Trade Agreement, and Vietnam and the EU also agreed to deepen cooperation on trade, technology, and security. Analysts note that emerging markets like India and South America are too small to fully support Europe’s export-dependent economies, leaving China as a critical partner despite ongoing human rights concerns and accusations of economic coercion.

“Half of economic growth is generated by either the United States or China,” Lee-Makiyama said. “The United States is hardly opening up, and Trump’s unpredictable tariffs signal that it is no longer a reliable trading partner,” added William Alan Reinsch of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

During his talks in Beijing, Starmer emphasised the importance of strengthening UK-China relations, while Xi called for deeper ties to navigate current geopolitical headwinds. Britain and China enjoyed a “Golden Era” of trade a decade ago, but relations deteriorated after Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong in 2020. Still, China remains the UK’s third-largest trading partner, and Starmer’s government is eager to boost economic growth.

European leaders have also pressed China on trade imbalances, which currently exceed $350 billion to the EU’s disadvantage. Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin advocated “open trade,” while French President Emmanuel Macron raised concerns about the deficit during a December visit.

Meanwhile, China and India are exploring strategies to counter US tariffs aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng warned at the World Economic Forum that the global trading system cannot revert to a “law of the jungle” dominated by self-interest.

Canada has also moved toward Beijing, with Prime Minister Mark Carney describing a “new strategic partnership” and signing a preliminary trade deal to cut tariffs on Chinese goods, including reducing tariffs on canola seed from 84% to around 15%, while importing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles under preferential rates. Analysts caution, however, that such moves could be misinterpreted as a softening stance on China’s national and economic security risks.

Reinsch of CSIS noted that the recent agreements are largely traditional trade negotiations on tariffs and non-tariff barriers, but warned that the US risks being left behind, making its unpredictable policies the true outlier in global trade.

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