By Obinna Uballa
Nigeria has missed out on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, as countries such as Benin Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda continue to dominate the continent’s growth landscape.
The IMF’s Director of African Department, Abebe Selassie, made the disclosure on Thursday during the presentation of the Fund’s Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. He said the five nations are now among the world’s top-performing economies, driven by robust fiscal reforms, macroeconomic stability, and sustained investments in infrastructure and manufacturing.
Selassie noted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected to stabilise at 4.1 per cent in 2025, with a modest pickup in 2026, even as global headwinds, ranging from weaker demand and volatile commodity prices to tight financial conditions, continue to test the region’s resilience.
“Several countries in the region – Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda – are among the fastest-growing economies in the world,” Selassie said. “Their success reflects steady progress in macroeconomic reforms and fiscal management.”
Nigeria’s exclusion from the list comes despite the IMF’s recent upward revision of the country’s growth forecast to 3.9 per cent in 2025, up from 3.4 per cent in July, on the back of higher oil output, improved investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal policy.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had similarly reported that Nigeria’s GDP grew by 4.23 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 3.48 per cent in the same period of 2024, indicating gains from improved oil production, a rebound in non-oil sectors, and easing inflationary pressures.
However, the IMF maintained that Nigeria’s growth remains below potential, urging the government to deepen structural reforms, enhance power supply, curb inflation, and expand non-oil revenues through industrial diversification and tax efficiency.
Selassie also warned of rising financial vulnerabilities across Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting growing government dependence on domestic banks for funding—a situation he said poses risks to financial stability. About half of the region’s public debt, the IMF estimates, is now held by domestic financial institutions.
“As access to external financing tightens, many governments have turned to domestic lenders to sustain spending,” Selassie said. “While this provides short-term relief, it heightens risks to bank balance sheets and deepens the sovereign-bank nexus.”
The IMF identified two major policy priorities for African economies: domestic revenue mobilisation and sound debt management. It urged governments to modernise tax systems, strengthen compliance, improve transparency, and ensure equitable implementation of reforms that build public trust.
Turning to Nigeria, Selassie acknowledged that recent monetary tightening and exchange rate reforms have helped to moderate inflation, though he cautioned that prices remain elevated.
“The decline in inflation is consistent with tighter policies and exchange rate adjustments,” he said. “But inflation remains sticky, meaning prices have settled at higher levels. Policy discipline must continue to restore stability.”
Meanwhile, the IMF commended Nigeria’s ongoing reforms in fiscal and monetary management, describing its current stance as “broadly positive.” According to Davide Furceri, Division Chief in the Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department, Nigeria’s fiscal stance is “neutral” and aligned with efforts to stabilise prices.
“Nigeria has done quite a lot in recent years—streamlining tax codes, reducing burdens on businesses, and curbing wasteful spending,” Furceri said. “These are policies in the right direction.”
The IMF’s Tobias Adrian, Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, added that Nigeria’s recent exchange rate adjustments and tighter monetary policy have strengthened external buffers and improved policy credibility.
“A depreciating exchange rate isn’t necessarily bad, it can restore equilibrium,” Adrian explained. “Nigeria has taken meaningful steps to strengthen its policy framework.”
Assistant Director Jason Wu added that higher revenues and improved transparency in foreign exchange management have contributed to lower inflation, now down to 23 per cent from over 30 per cent last year.
Despite these improvements, the IMF warned that external headwinds persist, including slowing global growth, volatile commodity prices, and expensive borrowing conditions. It urged African countries to maintain fiscal discipline, manage debt prudently, and continue implementing structural reforms.
“While capital flows are resuming, the risk of another round of volatility remains,” Wu said. “Countries must strengthen their fundamentals to withstand future shocks.”
The IMF concluded by urging African nations, particularly Nigeria, to boost productivity through reforms that enhance tax efficiency, debt transparency, and intra-African trade, arguing that stronger regional integration could accelerate sustainable growth.
