There have been so much hues and cries amongst some Nigerians and public commentators about the exclusion of Nigeria from the recent BRICS conference hosted by South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, despite its previous position as Africa’s leading economy. This has sparked debates among analysts who hold different views about the development. The conference which took place in South Africa recently admitted new members into the BRICS, which include, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Some argue that Nigeria’s drop in GDP following the devaluation of its currency may have been a reason for its exclusion. On the other hand, others believe that Nigeria may not have thought it expedient in its interest and necessary to join the BRICS, considering Nigeria’s historical role as a founding member of the defunct Organization of African Unity, where the policy of non- aligned nations was adopted by member-states, and its commitment to remain non-aligned during the Cold War till date, could have influenced its exclusion. But the BRICS organization cannot be said to have excluded a country that never applied for membership in a union that it may not have thought appropriate to join, at least not for now.
Further to the ongoing debate on whether Nigeria should remain non-aligned and not join BRICS, considering its historical ties with South Africa, its economic and diplomatic ties with the other members, and the rapidly changing dynamics of global power.
The critical issue on the exclusion of Nigeria from the BRICS conference ought to be analyzed, and exploring the potential reasons behind it, and juxtaposing the economic implications of Nigeria’s drop in GDP and its historical role as a non-aligned country during and after the Cold War.
Then considering the somewhat oscillating, uneasy and unpredictable relations between Nigeria and South Africa, particularly in light of Nigeria’s support during South Africa’s apartheid era, and recent xenophobic attacks on mainly Nigerian businesses/traders in South Africa and to a less extent, the reprisal attacks on South African interests in Nigeria.
Finally, the question should be, whether Nigeria should remain non-aligned and refrained from joining BRICS, given Russia’s declining influence and the recent invasion of Ukraine. And the fact that Nigeria has always maintained a historic, diverse, and cordial economic and socio-political relations with the Western bloc, comprising mainly, the USA, the UK and Europe.
Let me therefore highlight the dynamics that should inform and guide our foreign policy advisors of President Bola Tinubu on this recent euphoria of BRICS, which I will advise, Nigeria not to consider at this time, but maybe in the future. For now, the Tinubu government should concentrate on fixing and steading the wobbling ship of the Nigerian state, which finds itself in tempestuous waters of economic, political and social turmoil.
The following considerations should inform Nigeria’s decision to join BRICS, and keep to its age long non-aligned status, while still maintaining its cordial relations with the members of any country or bloc that have mutual respect for Nigeria and share our common interests and values to make the world and better and safer place.
First, Economic Factors:
Nigeria’s drop in GDP following the devaluation of its currency should focus more on fixing its ailing economy, debt servicing and generally have a firm and positive grip on its fiscal and monetary policies rather than being a pawn in proxy struggles for supremacy between the superpowers in any euphemistic union, at this point in time. Perhaps, Nigeria could consider joining in the future.
As the leading economy in Africa, Nigeria’s economic stability is crucial for the continent’s growth. However, the devaluation of the Naira, in any case, may have weakened Nigeria’s position, making it less attractive for BRICS membership. This economic factor, that is, if BRICS does extend invitation for membership cannot be overlooked, as BRICS seeks to strengthen economic ties among its members.
Secondly, Historical Significance:
Nigeria’s historical role as a founding member of the defunct Organization of African Unity and its non-aligned status during the Cold War, and thereafter could have influenced its exclusion from BRICS invitation if that was the authentic reason Nigeria’s commitment to non-alignment during a time of intense global power rivalry demonstrated its independence and desire to maintain neutrality. This historical significance may have clashed with the objectives and alignment of BRICS, informing Nigeria’s not expressing any interest in membership.
Thirdly, Nigeria-South Africa Relations:
Nigeria’s support for South Africa during its apartheid era, both financially, diplomatically, and militarily, raises questions about South Africa’s gratitude towards Nigeria, if truly invitations were extended to other African countries to the exclusion of Nigeria.
Recall that Nigeria played a significant role in assisting and supporting South Africa during its struggle against apartheid, and it is reasonable to expect some reciprocity. However, if South Africa’s exclusion of Nigeria from BRICS is seen as spiteful, it raises concerns about the sincerity of their relationship.
Lastly, Russia’s Influence:
Joining BRICS, which is championed by Russia, may not be in Nigeria’s best interest considering Russia’s declining international influence. The invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions have weakened Russia’s military and economic power. Nigeria should carefully consider aligning itself with a bloc led by a country experiencing a downturn in power, as it may not provide the desired benefits in the long run.
In conclusion, the exclusion of Nigeria from the BRICS conference, despite the fact that Nigeria’s Vice President, Kashim Shettima was in attendance, albeit as an Observer, raises questions about the reasons behind it. While economic factors, such as Nigeria’s drop in GDP, may have played a role, historical significance and the Nigeria-South Africa relations cannot be ignored. Nigeria’s non-aligned status during the Cold War and its support for South Africa during apartheid may have clashed with the objectives and alignment of BRICS. Therefore, I would caution that Nigeria should carefully consider aligning itself with a bloc led by Russia, whose influence is waning internationally. Ultimately, Nigeria’s decision to remain non-aligned or join BRICS should be based on a thorough analysis of its own interests and the changing dynamics of global power.
NB: Sonny Iroche, 2022-2023 Senior Academic Fellow, African Studies Centre of the University of Oxford. He is also an Investment Banker of 30 years experience. He was an Executive Director of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), 2013-2017)
Twitter (X): @IrocheSonny
