Two Women Likely In Final Race As Diplomats Escalate Negotiations, Trade Deals…
By Hamilton Nwosa(Head, The New Diplomat’s Polling, Research and data desk)
In the next 48 hours, the uncertainties hanging over the fate of five contenders for the coveted seat of Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) would give way to certainties as the WTO General Council under the chairmanship of Ambassador Walker of New Zealand would narrow the choice to two candidates.
The decision or selection of the Ambassador Walker-led team would effectively eliminate three candidates, and discontinue those dropped from advancing to the ultimate phase, final stage. Thus, from the pool of five standing candidates, three would be dropped outrightly.
The five are: former Nigeria’s Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Kenya’s former Trade Minister, Amina Mohamed , South Korea’s Trade Minister, Yoo Myung-hee, United Kingdom’s former Secretary of State for International Trade, Liam Fox and Saudi Arabia’s erstwhile Minister for Economy and Planning, Mohammed Al-Tuwaijri.
Read also: WTO: All Eyes On Okonjo-Iweala, Amina Mohamed, Myung-hee As US-China War Tilts Elements In Final Stage!
The New Diplomat investigations reveal that intense international diplomatic lobbying, back-stabbing and trade-offs have reached all time high levels as various countries escalate scheming and diplomatic lobby. High-level sources confided in The New Diplomat that Geneva, the headquarters of the WTO has witnessed an upsurge of diplomats flying into the city in last ditch moves to engage, dialogue, trade-off and negotiate.
Said a top diplomat in Geneva who wishes to remain anonymous: “ At the weekend, a couple of dinner meetings have been held among and between various contending blocs. I can tell you that the race is fierce, and at this point, it is unclear. But one scenario, I suspect is that it might end up as a two-women race by Tuesday if what I see is anything to go by…There are a lots of interventions seriously on-going.”
Asked which of the above designated candidates could make it to the final round Tuesday, the diplomat offers some useful insights: “ The three women in this race including the two men are strong and internationally experienced professionals with the requisite skills and background. But there are the political, economic, diplomatic and situational dynamics that would come into play in a selection process of this nature. That is all I can say. It is time for diplomats from contending countries to be more up and doing. That is all I can say at this point…”
Read also: WTO Top Job: Settling US, China Rift Very Challenging Says Okonjo-Iweala
Understandably, diplomats are not given to speaking directly on subject matters as they often navigate crucial issues politely, and tactfully. In fact, diplomats speak often in tongues, to use a popular African phrase! Recall that the five candidates that have advanced to this pen-ultimate level, all possess solid professionals with excellent skill-set and impressive cognate experience.
But insiders believe that the attention of the Amb Walker-led Selection team seems leaning towards three women, namely Nigeria’s former Finance Minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Kenya’s former Trade Minister, Amina Mohamed and South Korea’s Trade Minister, Yoo Myung-hee.
By Tuesday, the WTO General Council under the chairmanship of Amb Walker assisted by the duo of WTO head of Dispute Settlement, Amb Dacio Castillo and the organization’s leader of Trade Policy Review, Amb Harald Aspelund from Iceland, will announce the two candidates that would advance to the final stage of the selection process.
Said the diplomat: “ This is a very crucial hour. As I said previously, Ambassador Walker led Council will be engaging in this crucial round of consultations with WTO members to assess, determine their preferences and also seek to understand concerns , and determine which candidate is best placed to attract consensus support.”
According to the WTO protocols, this is the prelude to the final selection process. The idea behind this is to enable WTO member nations to ascertain which candidate best meet the eligibility criteria for the post of DG. This stage will see the five candidates being scaled down to two.
Read also: WTO: US, China Set To Clash Again Over Interim Chief’s Position
The final stage of consultation is expected to yield to a final consensus candidate. Going by the procedural protocols, the Walker- led Council would likely select its FINAL candidate in early November.
*Okonjo-Iweala, Amina Mohamed , Myung-hee, Fox and, Al-Tuwaijri : Who Drops Out?
It would be recalled that the WTO’s General Council had on September 18 asked the above five candidates to advance to the next stage. In line with WTO protocols, members of the WTO will now submit their two preferences to the trio of Ambassadors Walker, Castilo and Aspelund at this stage. According to Walker, the logic behind this is “ to secure a consensus decision by members on the next Director-General.”
However, a senior diplomatic source hinted that as the race enters its final, crucial phase, the intriguing elements and fierce games between, and among various regional power blocs are becoming much more glaring.
The very senior diplomat who also spoke anonymously to The New Diplomat last week repeated his position, stressing that the dynamics haven’t changed,“ Like I told you last week, the elements haven’t changed. My projection is that they might likely look in the direction of South Korean’s candidate if they are looking to balance the geo-regional diplomatic politics. Don’t forget, South Korea is in the middle-ground of the power intrigues and they may pacify Japan that could raise objection or seek to block South Korea’s bid because of bi-lateral trade tensions.
“Besides, the US may respond to China’s latest moves by aligning with South Korea in terms of seeing that it supports an ally in East Asia and South Korea is seen as a natural ally, and a strong technological power. In the alternative, don’t rule out Kenya’s Amina Mohamed. She is an insider in the WTO global system and from what I hear, she did extremely well and most excellently during the confidential interview and selection process.
Read also: ECOWAS Throws Weight Behind Okonjo-Iweala For WTO DG
“She is also a diplomat with wide-range experience in multilateral organization’s protocols and procedures especially that of the WTO which she now seeks to lead. She has lead very key high-profile positions in the WTO including its Ministerial chair, General Council Chair, Trade negotiations and Dispute resolutions chair. They might opt to utilize the experience of an insider who perfectly understands the WTO system to effect the reforms needed because you also might not want to bring in an outsider who doesn’t understand the system to pull down the entire roof…
“I also see Nigeria’s Okonjo-Iweala running very high at this pen-ultimate stage. She has broad experience and she schooled in the West and her recent acquisition of US citizenship might be an advantage. She could leverage upon that to her advantage. It could also be an identity issue. However, given the fact that Nigeria accepts dual citizenship as a country so there is no identity issues as some would want to make of it. She has been Nigeria’s finance minister, she has been an MD at the World Bank, and she has strong credentials.
” If other African countries support her candidature notwithstanding that Nigeria currently heads AfDB, AFRI-EXIM Bank and African Finance Corporation, three powerful African-based international organizations and the rest of the World go along this path, then she might just be a candidate to beat. I see the race scaling down to these three women.
“This is because my projection is that the EU may not support Britain because of BREXIT and other possible situational dynamics. Saudi Arabia might reach a consensus with Kenya and South Korea. Saudi Arabia’s candidate may opt for the Kenya woman from the cultural perspective or opt for Myung-Yee of South Korea on account of Asian regional politics. I therefore envisage a three woman battle at this pen-final stage namely: Nigeria’s Okonjo-Iweala, Kenya’s Amina Mohamed and South Korea’s Myung-Yee. But the big question is: who may likely drop among the three…? This three dimensions are what I see likely to play out. But don’t rule out anything until it is over. If Joe Biden wins the US elections or Donald Trump wins re-election, the elements might be different…”
Truly, as the race enters its final stage, the battle for the DG of WTO has brought to the fore new dynamics similar to those that characterized the fierce war between the US and China over the choice of DG of World Intellectual Property Organization, a U.N. agency in Geneva earlier in the year.
Read also: WTO Race: Hope Rises For Iweala As High Profile Endorsements Pour In
Reports indicate that the US-EU in a bid to effectively fence-off China’s increasing foray, backed Singapore’s Tang because China’s Qu Dongyu had last year emerged as the DG of the UN’s FAO-Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. However, in this new game, some believe that the race is actually between the African bloc and the East Asia bloc.
Recall that Trump has repeatedly hinted via Twitter that the US should quit the WTO outright not withstanding that this might elicit the anger of American business community which turns to the body to help address issues of disputes.
One interesting dynamics here is that the final selection process may likely dovetail into the United States presidential election contest between US President Donald Trump and former US Vice President Joe Biden.
The WTO is looking for a new DG to succeed Brazilian Roberto Azevedo, who stepped down last month. The 25-year-old trade body has never had a leader who is female. This makes the case for Okonjo-Iweala, Amina Mohamed and Yoo Myung-hee looks compelling. However, the three candidates are currently walking a very tight, tension-soaked rope that could swing in any direction!
Here are the three Women Candidates …
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (Nigeria): A former Nigeria’s Finance Minister & an ex-MD of World Bank.
According to her, she intends to “bring a fresh pair of eyes to the WTO’s challenges,” including “renewing and improving” the Organization. Her vision is anchored on the philosophy of “a WTO with Purpose,” where trade helps foster economic growth and sustainable development, and “fresh challenges. She plans to balance the intersection between trade and the environment, e-commerce, digital economy and dispute settlement. Okonjo-Iweala also highlights her rich global experience as Chair of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and a knowledge gained as a former Managing director of World Bank . She views issues of women and trade and MSMEs, as well as least developed countries’ (LDCs) participation in regional and global supplies dynamics as crucial to enhancing inclusiveness in the WTO. Analysts aver that President Buhari scored a clever diplomatic and deft political moves in putting forward Okonjo-Iweala to run for this coveted position. Her gripping credentials, excellent background and profound experience are great assets that stand her in vantage position.
Read also: Okonjo-Iweala Promises Giant Strides For WTO
Amina Mohamed (Kenya): Has served as Kenya’s Minister of Trade, Education &Foreign Affairs.
This lady who is highly regarded within and outside the WTO global system says he focus would be anchored on three Rs if she is selected as the next DG. These are reform, recovery, and renewal. She says these main themes of her mission for the WTO, is predicated on the need “to recapture the visionary inspiration of the original architects of the system” and “breathe new life into the WTO” so that it can assist in COVID-19 recovery by helping rebuild economic resilience to boost growth and sustainable development globally. Mohamed has been minister in various ministries in Kenya and played key leadership roles in the WTO including being a former Chair of WTO’s high-level decision-making bodies including its Ministerial Conference, General Council, Dispute Settlement Body as well as its Trade Policy Review Body. She underlined the need to find areas of convergence to “update the trading system to take account of climate change, the digital revolution, poverty, and sustainable development”, stressing that WTO’s “special responsibility towards its most vulnerable Members” such as LDCs, the economic empowerment of key bodies need to be prioritized. “I know this institution, I am passionate about it, I know the corridors, I have walked them, I have negotiated in them and I think it is one of the most amazing institutions for multilateral trading systems and negotiations,” she declared.
Yoo Myung-hee (South Korea): South Korea’s Trade Minister & only Woman from Asia…
Myung-hee’s goal as “to make the WTO more relevant, resilient, and responsive.” Yoo’s top priorities are: MC12, including a successful and effective outcome on fisheries subsidies and “tangible outcomes” on e-commerce; WTO’s reforms mechanism including such subject matters as to “update the rule-books”, “deliver agreements with real economic impact,” “ restore the dispute settlement system, and implement agreements and increase transparency; and sustainable development through inclusive trade initiatives and strengthened assistance to LDCs.” Yoo Myung-hee who is South Korea’s Trade Minister sees herself as the “bridge” candidate, aiming to overcome the divide between the United States and China, and also as a candidate that would act as a bridge between rich countries and developing nations. Dr. Rohinton P. Medhora, Chair of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, a policy research Think-Tank in Canada, posits that Yoo’s South Korea’s nationality could be an advantage as South Korea “is usually held up as a successful development model and is admired for its shrewd way of doing capitalism.” He also avers that the United States might in a diplomatic sense, see South Korea as an advantage in her tense war with China over trade.
