The race to select a new Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially began on Monday. Countries are racing to align interests in frantic effort to replace the current occupier of the exalted office, Brazilian, Robert Azevendo who will be bowing out in August this year.
He has been the WTO D-G since 2013 and he got re-elected for a second term in 2017. But on his own volition, he will stepping down from the position a year earlier to the expiration of his tenure.
This has forced the Organization to reduce the number of months it takes to choose a new Chief from its usual nine months to three this time.
The New Diplomat had earlier reported that following President Muhammadu Buhari’s approval of her nomination, Nigeria’s former Finance Minister and Managing Director at the World, Dr (Mrs.) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is among the five candidates who have so far been nominated by their governments for the position.
Nigeria, Egypt, Republic of Benin, Kenya and international heavyweight–United Kingdom have all nominated candidates with picture-perfect credentials and antecedents for the WTO DG election as The New Diplomat earlier weighed their chances in a special report.
The 164-member organization will receive candidates’ nominations between June 8 and July 8.
According to diplomats familiar with affairs and process of nomination at the WTO, “there will be an extensive consultation process led by the ambassadors that chair three key WTO committees that would lead to what they termed ‘a winnowing process.’
“The ambassadors indicate, based on their consultations, which of the candidates are likely to achieve consensus, effectively throwing the others over the side. The last time this process was used, in 2013 (Azevêdo had no opposition for a second term in 2017), there were winnowing cycles where the candidates were reduced first from nine to five and then ultimately to two.
“The complexity of the process will depend on how many candidates there are. At this early point, there appear to be five, either announced or mentioned, but that will almost certainly grow. The fact that it is a thankless job does not mean that nobody wants it.”
As dynamics continue to take shape ahead of the election scheduled for 2021, countries continue to focus on candidates with stuffs to bring about transformative changes at the Geneva-based organization, while also looking at factors such as gender sensitivity, geographical spread, as well as the stature of the candidate in the entire equation.
“There are two general areas where the discussion will focus—who is actually the best candidate, which is also a discussion about the state of the organization and what it needs to move forward, and “political” factors like candidate gender, geography, and status. Naturally, the media will pay more attention to the latter than the former because it is easier to discuss,” the diplomatic expert posited.
According to sources, there is considerable interest in female and African candidates since they have been under-represented in the body since inception 25 years ago. However, there is another argument that the position should alternates between the developing and developed world, meaning it is the latter’s turn this time as outgoing DG is from Brazil, categorized among the developing nations of the world. This perhaps explains why the United Kingdom has put forward her own candidate in the person of Lord Peter Mandelson.
“Two contradictory positions have emerged already. African nations argue it is “their turn” because there has never been a director-general from that continent. There has also never been one from North America, the Middle East, or Australia, but they are not making as much noise. Conversely, developed countries argue it is their turn because the organization has a history of alternating leaders from developed and developing economies. (Azevêdo, from Brazil, was preceded by Pascal Lamy from France.) There are also people who argue it is time for a woman to lead the organization—all previous leaders have been men—and that it should be a person of some stature. In 2013, one of the criticisms of Azevêdo was that he was an ambassador but had never been a minister in his government, like several of the candidates. Clearly, there is no candidate who meets all these criteria unless you can find a former female minister from a developed African country. Amina Mohamed from Kenya probably comes the closest, but she was a candidate in 2013 and did not survive the winnowing process. In political terms, it may well come down to unity.”
Asking African countries to decide on a consensus candidate, the diplomacy expert said :“If the Africans can unite behind a single candidate (right now there are three, if you count Egypt), they will have an advantage. Similarly, if developed countries, including the United States and the EU members, can unite behind someone, they will have an advantage. The current state of U.S.-EU relations suggests that may be unlikely.
“The more important question that governments should focus on is who the best person for the job is regardless of the above “external” criteria. That, however, leads to a debate over what the WTO is for and how it should be run. Some countries view it primarily as a negotiating forum; others see it as not only a rule-maker but also a rule-enforcer and adjudicator. The U.S. position is closer to the first, and the EU position is closer to the second. Both, and most other countries, would agree the WTO is not doing very well at either mission and needs reforms. But even there, countries part company. Some will want an aggressive leader who will actively push members to consensus; others believe the organization should remain fundamentally member-driven and that the director general’s job is to perceive consensus rather than to create it.
“Of course, any smart candidate will not line up on one side of those divides but will equivocate. The winnowing process is supposed to get beyond the candidates’ bromides and help the members understand what they are really thinking and what kind of leader they will be. In doing that, I hope they will look for a transformational leader who can galvanize the members into agreeing to the serious reforms that are needed. That will require someone with stature and a degree of charisma who knows how to bring people together. It will also require a willingness on the part of the members to be led. An organization with too many chefs in the kitchen does not accomplish much. On the other hand, too often leaders have followed the advice of the old general who said, “I must run to get ahead of my troops so I can lead them to where they are going.” Better to find someone with a destination in mind and the skills to get countries there.”
The Selection Process For New Director-General
An international trade expert narrates the process thus far: “The current procedures for the selection of the director-general were adopted by the General Council on December 10, 2002. Keeping with general WTO practice, consensus among the membership is required to select a new director-general. Normally, the selection process begins nine months before the expiration of the director-general’s four-year term. During the first month, member states nominate candidates who are interested in the position. Candidates cannot run without being nominated by their government. The WTO recently announced that the window for nominations will be between June 8 and July 8 for the current selection process. Candidates then have the opportunity to meet with the General Council (composed of WTO members), answer questions, and present their views.
“Once the window for nominations has closed, the chair of the General Council along with the chairs of the Trade Policy Review Body and Dispute Settlement Body—referred to as facilitators for this process—will initiate rounds of consultations with the WTO membership with the goal of reaching consensus on the next director-general. In previous iterations, members have been asked to voice their preferences for fewer candidates than are in the running to narrow the field. Usually several of these “consultations” are carried out before a candidate capable of garnering consensus emerges. The number of candidates put forward has consistently grown—from three in 1995 to four in 1999, five in 2005, and nine in 2013. So far, five candidates have announced their intention to run or have been rumored to be joining the race.
“The most common point of contention, and criteria, for selection is the regional representation of the candidate. Azevêdo’s election in 2013 was strongly contested. He was the first director-general from South America, leaving North America, Africa, and the Middle East as the only regions that have yet to be represented as head of the international body. Two contradictory arguments have emerged so far. African nations argue it is “their turn.” But developed nations point out the WTO’s recent history of alternating directors from developing and developed economies and argue it is their turn, since Azevêdo is from Brazil, a developing country.
US-China War To Play Its Part?
“Given the friction between the United States and China, between the European Union and United Kingdom, and the fact that the current director-general comes from Latin America, the stars may be aligning for the first ever WTO director-general from Africa.
“However, if there are multiple African candidates and if developed countries unite around their own candidate, that might give developed countries a significant advantage. The U.S. position is unknown at this point. It would be unusual for the United States to put forward its own candidate, but the current administration could well decide that doing so might be the best way to advance its reform agenda. The formal nomination process has yet to begin and there is still plenty of time for twists and turns.”
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