By Obinna Uballa
The World Bank has cast doubt on Nigeria’s ambition to bring inflation down to single digits in the near term, warning that the country remains trapped in double-digit inflation while most of Sub-Saharan Africa is moving toward price stability.
In its latest Africa’s Pulse report released on Tuesday, the Bank projected that Nigeria, alongside Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe, will continue to record double-digit inflation rates through 2025.
According to the biannual report, while 37 of Africa’s 47 economies are on track to maintain single-digit inflation by 2026, Nigeria stands out as an outlier due to persistent structural challenges, including currency depreciation, high food and energy costs, and supply bottlenecks.
This assessment undermines the Federal Government’s optimism that recent reforms, such as foreign exchange unification, fuel subsidy removal, and tighter monetary policy, would rapidly curb inflation. Top government officials, including Finance Minister Wale Edun and Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso, have repeatedly promised that single digit inflation remains a medium-term goal.
Speaking at the CBN Governor’s Annual Lecture at the Lagos Business School last week, Cardoso insisted that the Bank’s policies were designed to achieve the target. “The idea is to ensure that in the medium term we achieve single-digit inflation,” he said.
But the World Bank, in its evaluation, stressed that while inflation has receded across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria remains one of the few economies still locked in double-digit price growth.
The report noted: “Consumer price inflation has continued to recede across most Sub-Saharan African countries, albeit at varying speeds. After peaking at 9.3 per cent in 2022, the region’s median inflation declined to 4.5 per cent in 2024 and is projected to stabilize between 3.9 and 4.0 per cent annually over 2025–26.”
Despite this, nine countries, including Nigeria, are expected to remain in the double-digit inflation bracket next year.
The World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s growth outlook by 0.6 percentage points, citing stronger oil output and modest investment flows. However, it warned that inflation remains a drag on household welfare and investor confidence.
“While countries like Ivory Coast and Kenya are benefiting from price stability and easing monetary conditions, Nigeria’s inflation trajectory continues to undermine consumer demand and macroeconomic stability,” the report said.
Economists point to a mix of currency depreciation, high energy costs, and food supply disruptions, exacerbated by insecurity and weak logistics, as key drivers of Nigeria’s price crisis.
Meanwhile, South Africa, Senegal, and Tanzania have managed to keep inflation within single digits, aided by disciplined fiscal policies and effective exchange-rate management.
“The median inflation in the region is less than four per cent. Moreover, most currencies that were cratering relative to the US dollar have now recovered and are stable,” said Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa. “Nigeria’s situation remains challenging because of exchange rate pass-through and structural supply bottlenecks.”
The report also highlighted the broader challenge of job creation across Africa, warning that growth alone is insufficient to absorb the region’s expanding labour force. It identified agribusiness, healthcare, housing, tourism, and mining as sectors with the greatest potential to generate employment.
For Nigeria, the persistence of inflation is worsening living standards, eroding incomes, and deepening unemployment pressures.
