- Current U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance (28%) and Governor of California Gavin Newsom (23%) lead betting market odds for the 2028 U.S. President, followed by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 7%.
- Despite being ineligible for a third term, Donald Trump still holds 3.3% odds, while Elon Musk (1.1%) is also ineligible due to being foreign-born.
Although the 2028 U.S. presidential race is just over three years away, betting markets are already sizing up candidates’ odds, including ineligible candidates like current U.S. President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
This visualization shows the current implied probabilities for the candidates of the 2028 U.S. Presidential election based on Polymarket data as of October 14, 2025.
Current U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance currently has the highest odds of being elected 2028 U.S. President at 28%, followed by Governor of California Gavin Newsom at 23%.
The data table below shows each candidate’s odds of winning according to Polymarket’s trading data, as of October 14, 2025. Not every candidate below 3% odds is included in the data table and visualization:
| Candidate | Betting market odds of winning 2028 U.S. presidential election |
|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 28% |
| Gavin Newsom | 23% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7% |
| Marco Rubio | 3.5% |
| Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson | 4.3% |
| Wes Moore | 1.9% |
| Andy Beshear | 2.8% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.3% |
| Donald Trump | 3.3% |
| Kamala Harris | 1.9% |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.5% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.3% |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.9% |
| Elon Musk | 1.1% |
Following the two front-runners is congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 7% odds, with the politician with the next-highest odds being current U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 3.5%.
An unexpected outsider with higher odds than Marco Rubio is Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson with 4.3% odds, who showcases the United States’ fascination with celebrity outsiders in politics.
Outliers and Ineligible Candidates
Along with unexpected outliers like ‘The Rock’, there are other candidates betting markets are considering who are currently ineligible.
Donald Trump, already serving two Presidential terms by 2028, still garners 3.3% odds—a reflection of his enduring influence over Republican voters.
Two of Donald Trump’s children, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, are among the eligible candidates who have slim chances at 1.3% and 1.9% respectively.
Elon Musk also appears with 1.1% odds despite being foreign-born and thus barred from the U.S. presidency.
Credit: Visual Capitalist
