TotalEnergies Warns of Looming Oil Glut

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TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) reported on Thursday its weakest adjusted net income for a quarter since 2021, hit by lower oil and gas prices, and warned of a coming oil glut in an unstable macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

The French supermajor booked an adjusted net income of $3.6 billion for the second quarter of the year, down by 15% on the first quarter and a 23% plunge from a year earlier, as lower oil and gas prices took their toll on price realizations and cash flows.

The Q2 earnings, which also missed slightly the analyst consensus estimate of $3.67 billion, were the lowest since the second quarter of 2021.

Following the weaker results, TotalEnergies shares fell by 1.7% in Paris and were down by in 1.35% pre-market trade in New York.

The company, like many others, had already flagged weaker results for the second quarter, on the back of 10% lower oil prices and a drop in natural gas prices.

TotalEnergies last week guided for lower earnings in its upstream and LNG divisions for the second quarter amid a drop in oil, natural gas, and LNG prices compared to early this year and the same time last year.

Higher oil and gas production somewhat cushioned the blow as cash flow only decreased by 5% to $6.6 billion despite a 10% decrease in oil price, “notably thanks to accretive hydrocarbon production growth,” CEO Patrick Pouyanné said in a statement.

For the first half of 2025, TotalEnergies’ oil and gas production averaged 2.53 million boe/d, up by 3% year-on-year and benefiting notably from the start-up of the Ballymore field in the United States and Mero-4 in Brazil.

Although it kept the pace of its buybacks and quarterly dividends, TotalEnergies cautioned that “In an unstable geopolitical and macroeconomic environment (tariff war), oil markets remain volatile with prices fluctuating between $60 and $70/b.”

And warned that “The market is facing an abundant supply that is fueled by OPEC+’s decision to unwind some voluntary production cuts and weak demand that is linked to the slowdown in global economic growth.”

Credit: Oilprice.com

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