Sunday, August 3, 2025

The Truth Banishes Fear!

The $115 Trillion World Economy in One Chart

The New Diplomat
Writer

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The Hidden Signals in Oil Markets

Asia’s oil demand is growing faster than major agencies forecast, led by India and Southeast Asia’s emerging economies. China is rapidly restructuring its supplier base, favoring Brazil while cutting ties with U.S. energy. Kazakhstan’s refining expansion and chronic overproduction raise major questions about its future in OPEC+. I’ve been following the oil market closely this…

Oil Falls Below $70 as Sentiment Sours

A poor U.S. jobs report led to a broader sell-off on Friday, with leading stock indices falling from record highs. Friday, August 1st, 2025 Buoyed by Trump’s Russia threats and news of Indian state refiners curbing purchases of Russian crude, crude oil futures have been trending above $70 per barrel throughout the week, settling on…

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Data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s GDP estimates for 2025 (except for Pakistan). All figures are rounded and in nominal USD.
Ranked: Every Country by GDP in 2025

The U.S. has been the world’s largest economy for over 100 years, and in 2025 will maintain its lead, at $30.3 trillion.

Rank Countries 2025 GDP (Billions USD)
1 🇺🇸 U.S. $30,337.2
2 🇨🇳 China $19,534.9
3 🇩🇪 Germany $4,921.6
4 🇯🇵 Japan $4,389.3
5 🇮🇳 India $4,271.9
6 🇬🇧 UK $3,730.3
7 🇫🇷 France $3,283.4
8 🇮🇹 Italy $2,459.6
9 🇨🇦 Canada $2,330.3
10 🇧🇷 Brazil $2,307.2
N/A 🌍 World $115,338.3
Showing 1 to 10 of 190 entries

*Pakistan’s forecast for 2025 is not yet released, so 2024 data is used here.

Second-largest China ($19.5 trillion) will also hold its position, now on a 15-year streak. The top two together account for over two-fifths (43%) of the world’s $115 trillion GDP.

However, there have been changes in the top five recently. Germany ($4.9 trillion) overtook Japan ($4.4 trillion) in 2024 as the third-largest economy. Meanwhile India ($4.3 trillion) passed the UK ($3.7 trillion) as 5th largest in 2020.

All three countries are expected to retain their positions till 2026—when India is projected to first pass Japan for fourth, and then Germany for third place in 2028.

Meanwhile, around the top 10 mark, Australia is predicted to overtake Spain for 13th place this year. And Brazil is expected to make the top eight by 2028.

So…What’s 2025 Going to Be Like?

The IMF expects global economic growth to continue at 3.2% fueled by rate cuts as inflation retreats across key markets in the U.S. and Europe.

Geopolitical risks remain the lurking threat to growth. In February, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will complete its third year, previously a key trigger to Europe’s post-pandemic inflation rise.

The latest Israel-Palestine conflict has already passed a year, drawing in neighbors Lebanon and Yemen, and disrupting key shipping routes.

Meanwhile, Syria remains in focus after rebels overthrew the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus, ending 24-years of rule.

As it happens we have a whole series dedicated to looking ahead. Join VC+ today to get access to the 2025 Global Forecast Series, filled with experts predictions and consensus for sectors, markets, and economies in the New Year.

Credit: Visual Capitalist

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