- The August 15 Trump-Putin meeting has caught Europe off guard, sparking urgent diplomatic moves to avoid being sidelined.
- EU leaders have set strict red lines on Ukraine, including a cease-fire and security guarantees, but face internal divisions, notably from Hungary.
- Despite threats of more sanctions and military proposals, Europe’s influence appears limited compared to Washington and Moscow’s direct talks.
The planned meeting in Alaska between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has left Europe scrambling.
The European Union, and most other European nations, are seeking to prevent the United States from “falling into a trap” while backing Ukraine diplomatically in every possible way and preparing more sanctions on Russia. But with no new diplomatic initiatives, they are struggling to secure a seat at the table as the continent’s fate appears to be in other capitals’ hands.
It’s fair to say Brussels woke up from its August summer recess slumber with a bang last week. While few thought the US president would crack down on Russia with restrictive measures after failing to impose any meaningful sanctions to date, no one expected him to announce a full-blown, US-Russia meeting at the highest level – the first in over four years – to take place on August 15 in Alaska.
Since the summit was announced, European officials have scrambled diplomatically. They met with US Vice President JD Vance in Britain over the weekend, the bloc’s foreign ministers held a videoconference on August 11, and on August 13 several of the continent’s leaders – including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – will hold another call with Trump.
Several European officials, whom RFE/RL has been in touch with under the condition of anonymity, say the messages from Washington so far have been “chaotic” and apparently several factions within the US administration have different aims for the Alaska meeting.
The officials noted there are different interpretations of what Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Moscow envoy, brought back from his meeting with Putin last week. While admitting they feel a bit more confident now after all the outreach, they still aren’t quite sure what to expect from Alaska.
The EU’s Red Lines
Despite this, the EU has made it clear it has several red lines. European officials want a cease-fire first before any discussions on potential Ukrainian concessions. With this should come security guarantees for Kyiv and a way to monitor the cease-fire.
Many see some sort of European role here, but does anyone else? On potential Ukrainian territory being seized by Russia, the Europeans say they will back Ukraine in whatever Kyiv ultimately decides, but they want a say in it. The EU will never de jure recognize Ukrainian territory as Russian — as in the case of Crimea since 2014, for example.
When it comes to the withdrawal of Russian troops from certain occupied areas as a form of concession, there is also some skepticism that Moscow would actually respect that. One diplomat noted that Russian troops never withdrew from Moldova’s Transnistria or from Georgia’s occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Despite all the diplomatic posturing by European countries, the fact is they’ve been sidelined. While they are insisting on being at the table on any issue of direct interest, there’s no indication they’ll be allowed to anytime soon. This stands in stark contrast with the run-up to the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in the winter of 2021-2022 when Europe was fully engaged in futile attempts at negotiations with Moscow at NATO, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and bilaterally with the Kremlin.
Now, EU leaders are struggling to stay relevant. Yes, they’re threatening more sanctions against Russia, and a 19th round is being prepared. But while some of those measures have been a nuisance for Russia, they haven’t swayed the Kremlin’s political and military calculations in the past three years.
The over 200 billion euros’ worth of Russian frozen assets in the bloc may be a useful bargaining chip, but only at a later point when talks can advance to Russia potentially making war reparations.
All the sanctions are up for renewal in January 2026, and unanimity is needed for an extension. Some EU diplomats have hinted that some measures might be dropped if Moscow delivers on certain aspects of a potential deal, but they contend that no real sequencing has been seriously discussed.
Looking For Reassurance
Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer touted a “reassurance force” of potentially 20,000 European troops to be stationed in western Ukraine. Some people say this plan is in the works, but they also admit there are still too many uncertainties surrounding it, such as the rules of engagement and whether the Americans would provide any assistance, like intelligence and large-scale transports.
Meanwhile, many point out that NATO membership would be the ultimate security guarantee for Ukraine, but there is no consensus on this issue at the military alliance, just like when the topic was dissected at NATO summits in 2023 and 2024.
For the moment, Brussels is putting its stance out there with statements. Incidentally, Hungary chose not to add its signature, again highlighting cracks in European unity. Budapest, which enjoys warm relations with the Kremlin, wants an EU-Russia summit to follow the Trump-Putin meeting.
Hungary is already blocking Ukraine’s EU aspirations and stronger measures against the Kremlin and may block future financial aid. While it currently stands alone in its direct defiance of Brussels on these topics, it might soon have company if Washington and Moscow start making real deals over European heads.
Credit: oilprice.com
