Rystad: Oil Prices To Remain Below $80 Despite Escalating Middle East Tensions

Abiola Olawale
Writer

Ad

Tinubu Departs Brazil for Nigeria After State Visit

By Abiola Olawale President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has concluded a three-day state visit to Brazil, departing the country for Abuja on Wednesday, August 27, 2025. The New Diplomat reports that the presidential jet took off from Brasília International Airport Air Force Base, with a ceremonial send-off attended by Brazil’s Secretary for Africa and the Middle…

President’s son jailed 6 years in fraud case as power tussle soars in Equatorial Guinea

• Two brothers at war over who succeeds Nguema Mbasogo By Obinna Uballa An Equatorial Guinea court has sentenced Ruslan Obiang Nsue, son of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, to six years in prison for illegally selling a plane belonging to the state airline, Ceiba Intercontinental, a case analysts say reflects growing rivalry within the…

Details: Why Roosevelt Ogbonna Quit Access HoldCo board

• He remains Bank MD, Says Access By Obinna Uballa Access Holdings Plc has explained that Mr. Roosevelt Ogbonna, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Access Bank Plc, resigned from the Board of the HoldCo to comply with regulatory guidelines issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The company, in a statement signed…

Ad

Oil prices are likely to remain capped below $80 per barrel despite the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, research firm Rystad Energy said on Monday, as Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes with the escalation now in its fourth day.

“Based on our earlier disruption simulations, we see oil prices capped below $80 per barrel,” Mukesh Sahdev, Rystad Energy’s Global Head of Commodities Markets – Oil, said in a market update, carried by Africa Oil+Gas Report.

The conflict appears likely to be contained and the United States could potentially play a central role, according to Sahdev.

The worst fear in the market is a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical crude flow lane where more than 20 million barrels of crude pass every day—equal to a fifth of global daily oil consumption.

While disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows could be devastating and would send oil prices spiking and add further tensions, it is an unlikely scenario for many observers and analysts, including those at Rystad Energy.

“A blockade remains the key risk that could push markets into uncharted territory,” Janiv Shah, Rystad Energy’s Vice President, Commodities Markets – Oil, said.

However, “Given its interest in keeping prices closer to $50, the US could play a stabilizing role,” Shah added.

“We maintain our view that this is likely to remain a short-lived conflict, as further escalation risks spiraling beyond the control of key stakeholders,” Shan said.

Despite Israel and Iran hitting each other’s energy sites over the weekend, the targets are not material to global oil production or crude flows.

Following the oil price jump on Friday after the start of the Israeli strikes on Iran, oil was muted in early trading on Monday, with both benchmarks falling by around 1% and trading in the low $70s per barrel as key oil flows from the Middle East remain unaffected.

Source: Oilprice.com

Ad

X whatsapp