By Marcus Lu
The end of the 21st century will see the first plateauing (and eventually shrinking) of world population since the Industrial Revolution. As birth rates fall across the globe, what does this mean for the world’s most populous countries?
To find out, we visualized forecasts for the world’s six largest countries using data from the latest revised version of the UN World Population Prospects 2022.
Projections are based on a “medium fertility scenario”, which assumes countries will converge at a birth rate of 1.85 children per woman, by 2045-2050.
China’s Projected Population Decline
China’s population boom has officially come to an end, with the country reporting two consecutive years of decreases (down 850,000 in 2022, and 2.1 million in 2023).
| Year |  China |
 U.S. |
 Indonesia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 812M | 199M | 114M |
| 1980 | 975M | 222M | 146M |
| 1990 | 1,144M | 246M | 181M |
| 2000 | 1,260M | 281M | 213M |
| 2010 | 1,344M | 310M | 242M |
| 2020 | 1,424M | 335M | 271M |
| 2030E | 1,417M | 351M | 291M |
| 2040E | 1,380M | 366M | 308M |
| 2050E | 1,317M | 375M | 317M |
| 2060E | 1,211M | 381M | 319M |
| 2070E | 1,091M | 387M | 318M |
| 2075E | 1,035M | 389M | 316M |
Note: Figures are rounded.
The country’s population in 2050 is forecasted to be 1.32 billion, which is roughly the same as it was in 2007. The UN believes this demographic downtrend will accelerate as we enter the second half of the century.
What does this mean for the Chinese economy? Many worry that a smaller workforce, coupled with an aging population, will increase healthcare expenditures and hamper economic growth.
India’s Population Boom Continues
Meanwhile, the UN believes that India’s population will peak somewhere in the mid 2060s, just shy of the 1.7 billion mark.
India’s population will not age as quickly as its neighbor. Those over the age of 65 will represent less than one-fifth of the population until 2060, and their share of India’s total number of people and will not approach 30% until 2100.
| Year |  India |
 Pakistan |
 Nigeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 551M | 58M | 55M |
| 1980 | 689M | 79M | 72M |
| 1990 | 861M | 114M | 94M |
| 2000 | 1,050M | 152M | 121M |
| 2010 | 1,232M | 192M | 159M |
| 2020 | 1,390M | 225M | 206M |
| 2030E | 1,509M | 272M | 260M |
| 2040E | 1,608M | 320M | 318M |
| 2050E | 1,668M | 366M | 375M |
| 2060E | 1,695M | 406M | 427M |
| 2070E | 1,691M | 439M | 472M |
| 2075E | 1,678M | 452M | 491M |
Note: Figures are rounded.
Finally, whether these predictions come true or not will depend on how quickly birth rates fall as the country develops. For example, India’s fertility rate fell from 6.2 in 1950, to 2.0 in 2021 (births per woman).
Source: Visual Capitalist
