Kazakhstan’s crude oil output jumped 7.5% in June to 1.88 million barrels per day (bpd), matching the country’s all-time high set in March, according to figures leaked to Reuters. This puts Kazakhstan well over its official OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million bpd, and continues a pattern of months-long noncompliance that’s frustrating the group’s core members—especially Saudi Arabia.
Total oil and condensate production rose to 2.15 million bpd in June, up from 2.02 million in May. Most of the increase came from Tengiz—the Chevron-led mega-field—where output surged from 813,200 bpd in May to 953,000 bpd in June. Chevron began a $48 billion expansion at Tengiz earlier this year, which has helped fuel Kazakhstan’s rapid supply growth despite a weak global oil price environment.
In the first half of 2025, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production (excluding condensates) averaged 1.79 million bpd—up 13% from the same period last year.
The country’s energy ministry insists it’s committed to OPEC+ goals, but the math—and politics—tell a different story. More than 70% of Kazakhstan’s oil is produced by international consortiums like Chevron and ExxonMobil, over which the government has no authority to impose cuts. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed in May that “the republic has no right to enforce production cuts” on foreign operators.
Kazakhstan has promised to offset its overproduction by shaving 1.3 million barrels off cumulative output by 2026—but this is widely seen as unenforceable PR.
OPEC+ will meet July 6 to set August production targets. Sources say another 411,000 bpd increase is on the table. Whether Kazakhstan complies or not may be moot—Chevron has made clear it doesn’t “engage in discussions about OPEC or OPEC+.”
As one analyst put it: Kazakhstan is pumping now, promising later, and daring anyone to stop it.
Credit: Oilprice.com
