OPEC+ members are expected to stick with their decision to pause oil production increases when the group meets online this Sunday, signaling a cautious approach amid growing signs of oversupply and persistent weakness in prices.
Delegates told reporters the meeting is likely to be “straightforward,” with ministers simply reaffirming the policy agreed earlier this month to suspend output hikes during the first quarter of 2026. The pause, driven largely by Saudi Arabia and its partners, reflects concern that global inventories are rising faster than demand as Brent crude continues to hover near $63 a barrel.
The meeting comes at a delicate moment for energy markets. U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing for a Ukraine peace deal that could eventually free up more Russian oil supply, while production elsewhere continues to surge. Analysts say the combination of easing geopolitical risk and resilient non-OPEC output is weighing heavily on market sentiment.
OPEC’s own analysis points to faster growth from the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, with non-OPEC liquids expected to rise by about 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. Global demand, meanwhile, is forecast to increase by 1.6 million bpd to 106.2 million bpd — strong, but no longer enough to tighten balances. The result is a market shifting from deficit to balance, and potentially toward surplus, if demand softens further.
The International Energy Agency projects an even looser picture, warning that inventories could swell by as much as 5 million bpd in the first quarter of 2026 — a record glut that would further pressure prices.
Still, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al Ghais pushed back against talk of oversupply, accusing some media of misinterpreting the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report. “There was a misrepresentation by some media… about the market being in a surplus next year,” al Ghais told CNBC, insisting that OPEC expects a balanced market in 2026.
For now, OPEC+ plans to maintain voluntary output cuts by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and others through early 2026. But several members have begun reviewing long-term production capacity, suggesting that if prices stabilize, incremental increases could resume later in the year.
Market watchers expect Sunday’s meeting to confirm the pause and underscore a wait-and-see strategy — one designed to preserve unity and flexibility as the world’s largest oil alliance navigates slowing demand growth, rising supply, and an uncertain geopolitical outlook.
Credit: Oilprice.com
