At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $64.90 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $61.28, as the Middle East war premium vanished.
“This (deal) saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts,” ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes wrote in a note earlier today, as cited by Reuters. The publication noted, however, that the benchmarks could end the week with a slight gain.
ING’s head of commodity strategy, Warren Patterson, described the Ukraine war as the most prominent upside risk for oil prices, writing in a note Thursday that “the ongoing threat of sanctions and secondary tariffs targeting Russia” provided support for oil benchmarks.
“A more aggressive stance fromi President Trump could place broader Russian supply at risk. Another key upside risk also stems from Russia on the supply side, specifically the potential for disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. While most of these attacks have focused on refineries, there have been instances targeting port infrastructure, which could directly impact crude oil exports,” Patterson wrote, reiterating ING’s expectation that oversupply of crude will keep a lid on prices both for the remainder of this year and all of next.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a rise in fuel demand for the week to October 3, with the Price Futures Group’s Phil Flynn noting the amount, at 21.99 million barrels daily, was the highest since the end of 2022, suggesting demand remained robust in the world’s largest consumer.
Credit: Oilprice.com
