– Ever since OPEC+ countries started to unwind their 2.2 million b/d worth of voluntary production cuts, the expectation was that Middle Eastern producers would start to flood the markets in order to re-gain market share.
– Saudi Arabia’s June export numbers indicate that Saudi Aramco is doubling down on its production hikes, shipping 6.4 million b/d in seaborne outflows alone, marking the strongest monthly reading since March 2024.
– Saudi Arabia’s production quota was set at 9.367 million b/d for June and 9.534 million b/d, suggesting that with 220,000 b/d of pipeline exports to Bahrain and 3 million b/d of domestic refinery runs, Saudi Aramco might have brought output back even quicker than assumed.
– As daytime temperatures remain above 40° C (100° F) for some weeks already, Saudi Arabia will also maximize crude and fuel oil burning for power generation, usually peaking in July when Saudi generators burn a whopping 1.5 million b/d of fuel to keep Saudi homes cool.
Market Movers
– French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) purchased a 25% stake in Suriname’s offshore Block 53 from Spanish energy firm Moeve, expanding into the block adjacent to its $10.5 billion Gran Morgu development.
– Norway’s state-controlled oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) and its partners approved a $1.3 billion expansion plan for the Johan Sverdrup field, currently Europe’s largest, expected to be launched in Q4 2027.
– Australia’s upstream firm Santos (ASX:STO) granted exclusive due diligence for a six-week period to Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC after the latter offered $18.7 billion for it, indicating Santos is keen to be sold.
– Spanish oil company Repsol (BME:REP) agreed to sell its 24% interest in the mature Corridor development onshore Indonesia for a consideration of $425 million to the asset’s local operator, Medco Energi.
Tuesday, July 01, 2025
Saudi Arabia to Hike August Formula Prices. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, is expected to increase its formula prices for August-loading cargoes in Asia by $0.50-0.80 per barrel, as the Israel-Iran war lifted backwardation to its highest since February.
US Lifts Oil Sanctions on Syria. The Trump administration has lifted most energy-related sanctions on Syria, including an Obama-era 2011 ban on US imports of Syrian oil and refined products, whilst the country’s Baniyas refinery switched from Iranian crude to Russian oil.
Guyana Eyes Rapid NGLs Expansion. The government of Guyana, one of the fast-rising stars of offshore oil production, has called on interested companies to bid for a natural gas liquids (NGL) facility to produce propane and butane from the natural gas piped from Exxon’s (NYSE:XOM) fields.
Colombia Strikes Big Oil, For Once. Colombia’s national oil producer Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) will be doubling down on its giant Lorito oil discovery in the onshore Llanos Basin, having drilled three appraisal wells in over the past year, confirming recoverable reserves of 250 million barrels.
Enbridge Takes the State of Michigan to Court. The US Supreme Court agreed to hear the case of Canada’s midstream giant Enbridge (TSO:ENB) against Michigan Attorney General seeking to halt operations of the 540,000 b/d Line 5 pipeline, part of which runs underneath the Straits of Mackinac.
Russia Mulls Lower Taxes for Embattled Gas Giant. Russia’s government has been discussing ways to lower the tax burden of the country’s largest gas producer Gazprom, after a loss-making 2023 result and no dividends paid out in 2024, whilst the firm struggles to reorient its sales towards Asia.
Singapore Sees Record Renewable Boost. The share of renewables in Singapore’s power output mix soared to a record high in May after robust solar generation – growing at the fastest pace in more than a year – lifted clean energy to 3%, whilst gas still accounts for a whopping 95% of the total.
Damaged Israeli Refinery Eyes Gradual Return. Israeli refiner ORL (TLV:ORL) said that it had partly resumed activities at its missile-stricken 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery, shut down on the heels of Iranian strikes during the 12-Day War, hoping to be fully operational by October 2025.
Copper Prices Go Up, So Does Chile’s Production. Chile has churned out the most copper this year so far in May, a total of 486,754 metric tonnes, or up 9.4% from the same period last year, as rapidly depleting stocks keep cash prices above $10,000 per metric tonne, despite more Chilean supply.
LNG Canada Ships Its First Cargo. As signalled in our last week’s report, the $30 billion LNG Canada project loaded its maiden LNG cargo from Kitimat, Canada’s first ever export of liquefied natural gas, with the Shell-chartered Gaslog Glasgow LNG carrier heading towards Incheon, South Korea.
US Creates Hidden Subsidy for Met Coal. Metallurgical coal, used for coking in steel production, will receive a subsidy from the Trump Administration as the One Big Beautiful Bill in its current form allows coal producers to claim an advanced manufacturing tax credit, equivalent to 2.5% of the fuel.
Credit: Oilprice.com
