By Obinna Uballa
Nigeria’s crude oil production inched up slightly to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025, according to the latest Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report released on Wednesday.
The figure represents a marginal rise from 1.39 million bpd in September, but remains below the country’s OPEC production quota of about 1.5 million bpd, marking the third consecutive month of underproduction. Nigeria last met its assigned target in July 2025.
The shortfall comes as the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, prepares to lobby OPEC for an upward revision of Nigeria’s quota at the group’s forthcoming meeting.
Lokpobiri, in a recent interview with officials of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), argued that the country’s current quota “no longer reflects its true production capacity,” stressing that Nigeria is capable of producing up to two million barrels per day.
“The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will certainly be making a case for a higher quota for Nigeria,” the minister said. “There’s no better time than now for us to push for a review to two million barrels and above.”
OPEC data show that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter of 2025, down from 1.481 million bpd in the second quarter and 1.468 million bpd in the first quarter – evidence of the country’s continuing struggle to sustain production recovery despite new upstream investments and security interventions in oil-producing areas.
Globally, OPEC reported that oil supply in October exceeded demand by 500,000 bpd, reversing the 400,000-barrel deficit recorded in September. The group attributed the surplus mainly to rising non-OPEC output, particularly from the United States, which accounted for more than half of the 890,000-bpd increase in global supply.
Analysts say these trends, rising non-OPEC production and volatile demand, have kept global oil prices swinging between $82 and $86 per barrel in recent weeks.
Nigeria’s production pattern throughout 2025 has reflected a fluctuating trend, with output peaking at 1.529 million bpd in April before sliding steadily to 1.401 million bpd by September.
