By Sonny Iroche
Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has seen regular elections and peaceful transfers of power, a milestone after decades of military rule. However, analysts note that politics is still dominated by a narrow elite within two major parties, fueling disillusionment. Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution established a strong presidential system (loosely modeled on the U.S.), but with a key difference: it explicitly requires that a presidential candidate be a member of a political party. Section 131 of the Constitution states that a presidential aspirant must be “a member of a political party and is sponsored by that political party” . In practice this bars any true independent from running for president. Other election provisions reinforce this party monopoly: for example, Section 134 requires that a winning candidate earn at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of the states , an arduous threshold effectively enforced through party structures. No clause in the Constitution or Electoral Act provides for self-nomination; indeed, Part D of the Constitution even holds that “no association, other than a political party, shall canvass for votes for any candidate at any election or contribute to the funds of any political party” . In short, Nigeria’s electoral laws envision parties as gatekeepers to office.
These rules contrast sharply with the American model from which Nigeria drew inspiration. The U.S. Constitution imposes only basic requirements—natural-born citizenship, age 35+, 14-year residency—for a president, and explicitly allows any eligible citizen to run. As USA.gov notes, “Anyone who meets these requirements can declare their candidacy for president” . Indeed, the U.S. routinely features third-party and independent candidates: for example, Ross Perot (1992) and many others have contested without party backing. Similarly, other democracies explicitly permit independents. Kenya’s post-2010 constitution stipulates that a presidential aspirant “is nominated by a political party, or is an independent candidate” and must collect at least 2,000 signatures in a majority of counties . Several African countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal, Benin, Burundi, etc.) likewise allow independent presidential bids . Nigeria alone among major presidential democracies has no legal outlet for citizen candidates beyond party lists.
In practice, that means every Nigerian president since 1999 has been the nominee of one of the two main parties. Supporters of this system argue it fosters national coalitions and stability. Critics counter that it stifles choice and entrenches patronage. There is growing momentum to reform this. In 2024 the House of Representatives revived a constitutional amendment to allow independents: any citizen could run for president as an independent provided they gather signatures from 20% of registered voters in each of the 36 states . (A similar 20% threshold per local area would apply for legislative races.) This bill is under committee review and would require sweeping changes to Sections 65, 131, 177 etc. Backers describe it as a progressive step (citing global precedents), while skeptics worry about ballot chaos. As one draft amendment puts it, the Constitution would need to be modified so that a candidate “is either an independent candidate or a member of a political party and is sponsored by that party” . In any event, the absence of any independent path to the presidency remains a defining feature of Nigeria’s system .
The Party System: From 1999 to Today
From the outset, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic was dominated by a few large parties. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was formed in 1998 by disparate groups (including pro-democracy activists and defectors from the military regime) . Under the leadership of ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, the PDP “quickly became the country’s dominant party,” winning the presidency and a legislative majority in 1999 . Across West Africa, such broad-based parties are common, and the PDP’s rule (1999–2015) spanned three presidencies (Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan).
Opposition parties coalesced mainly along regional lines. The Alliance for Democracy (AD) was created in September 1998 as a Yoruba-based progressive party, uniting southwestern leaders angered by the annulment of the June 12, 1993, election . AD won several states in the 1999 and 2003 elections, but internal splits led it to merge into the Action Congress (later Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN) in 2006 . (The AC/ACN came to be seen as the heir to Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s progressive legacy in the Southwest .)
In the north, the All Peoples Party (APP) was founded in 1998 and shortly thereafter renamed the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). It became “a household party in the extreme north,” with strong religious appeal . At its peak (mid-2000s) the ANPP controlled seven state governments, notably unseating the PDP in Kano (a massive prize) . ANPP’s most famous figure was former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who twice ran for president on its ticket (2003, 2007).
By the 2011–2012 period, several opposition parties – the ACN, ANPP, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) (a Buhari-led breakaway from the ANPP), and a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) – coalesced. In February 2013 they formally merged to form the All Progressives Congress (APC) . This was a watershed: APC quickly consolidated as the main rival to the PDP. In the 2015 election, APC candidate Buhari defeated incumbent Jonathan, marking “the first time in Nigerian history that an opposition party unseated a governing party and power was transferred peacefully” . APC then maintained legislative majorities (aside from mid-term defections) and re-elected Buhari in 2019 . In 2023 APC’s Bola Tinubu won the presidency, continuing the two-party arrangement (the PDP once again in opposition).
A quick overview of parties illustrates the evolution:
• Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – Founded 1998; ruled 1999–2015. Broad centrist coalition (center-right/deregulation, health and education funding) . Produced Presidents Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan. Lost power to APC in 2015.
• Alliance for Democracy (AD) – 1998, progressive Yoruba dominated party . Won seats in early elections (1999, 2003) in the Southwest. Fragmented by 2006.
• Action Congress/ACN – Formed 2006 from AD splinter groups and others . Strong in Lagos and SW; controlled Lagos state for many years. Merged into APC in 2013 .
• All Peoples/All Nigeria Peoples Party (APP/ANPP) – Founded 1998 (APP renamed ANPP in 1999). Conservative, north-based . Major opposition (had 7 governorships) until merging into APC in 2013 .
• Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) – Buhari’s party (2010–13), active mainly in the north. Merged into APC in 2013.
• All Progressives Congress (APC) – Established Feb 2013 by merging ACN, ANPP, CPC (and a faction of APGA) . Won 2015 and 2023 elections, ending PDP’s uninterrupted control. APC remains one of the two main parties today.
• Labour Party (LP) – Created 2002 (as Party for Social Democracy) under the umbrella of labour unions . For many years a minor party, it surged after former Anambra governor Peter Obi who was elected on the ticket of Odimegwu Ojukwu’s APGA, defected to the PDP, then left the PDP to join LP in May 2022 . Obi’s candidacy made LP nationally relevant; in 2023 LP won 8 Senate seats and 35 House seats . (It also won the Ondo governorship from 2009–2017 under Olusegun Mimiko.)
• Social Democratic Party (SDP) – A revived party using the historic “SDP” name of the 1990s. Led by Abdulkadir Abdulsalam and others, it has tried to present itself as a clean alternative. Its impact remains small, but it has attracted some prominent defectors (e.g. former Kaduna gov. El-Rufai joined SDP in 2023).
Other smaller parties (Young Progressives Party, Advanced Congress of Democrats, Action Alliance, etc.) have existed without major national impact. In practice, Nigeria’s elections since 1999 have been contests between PDP-aligned and APC-aligned candidates, with occasional upsets (such as third-party governors or upsets in gubernatorial races). This bipolar system has meant that aspirants often switch (“cross-carpeting”) between PDP and APC to seek nomination or office.
Peter Obi and the “Obi-dient” Youth Movement
The 2023 presidential election highlighted Nigeria’s growing youth discontent with the two-party status quo. Former Anambra governor Peter Obi ran on the Labour Party ticket with a slogan of economic reform, and anti-corruption. His campaign quickly galvanized younger Nigerians. Observers noted that Obi “inspired a zealous movement of mostly youths and disrupted Nigeria’s traditional two-man presidential contest” . In country after country, entrenched party systems can seem impenetrable – but Obi’s candidacy what appeared to be a third force (nicknamed “Obi-dients”) that mobilized on social media, and rallies.
Some analysts believed that Obi’s campaign reawakened political interest, especially among millennials who had been largely apathetic. As one study observed, the “Peter Obi effect” led to political engagement because of a “general disenchantment by the citizens towards the present crop of leaders.” In practice, Obi’s messaging – promising to tackle youth unemployment, diversify the economy, and fight corruption – resonated with students and young professionals. A policy think-tank summarized the phenomenon: “the fervency and energy of these young people, the ‘Obi-dient’ as they came to be known, … drove Obi’s startling ascendancy” . Indeed, his labor-backed party’s rallies were filled with university-age Nigerians eager for change.
Obi’s performance also demonstrated the viability of a credible third-party bid. Analysts note that he “established the viability of a third-party candidacy” in Nigeria – something long thought impossible under the entrenched PDP/APC duopoly. Polls in late 2022 even showed Obi leading in some states. In the official results, Obi placed a surprisingly third, after Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, with about 8.8 million votes (roughly 23% nationally) – far above any prior third-party showing. The Labour Party also won several legislative seats (8 Senate seats and 35 House seats) and even flipped the Anambra governorship. Many Nigerians, especially urban youth, saw the “Obi-dient” surge as a direct protest against the old political order.
On the other hand, Obi’s effort fell short of victory. Still, the campaign’s significance is clear: youth-driven movements can no longer be ignored in Nigerian politics. By breaking turnout records at rallies and generating unprecedented online engagement, Obi showed that even a nominally small party can matter when it captures popular imagination. The 2023 election served as a wake-up call: major parties can no longer take the young vote for granted, and calls for alternative voices (even outside parties) have grown louder.
It is likely that the 2027 general elections, are likely to throw up more youthful, credible and tested technocrats into the presidential race.
Cross-Carpeting and Voter Disillusionment
A chronic issue undermining Nigeria’s democracy is party defection, locally known as “cross-carpeting.” Legislators (and even governors), often switch parties mid-term, typically moving toward whoever appears in power. A case in point is the recent defections from the PDP to the ruling APC by Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, who was first elected as both a PDP Senator, then governor of Delta State and the Vice Presidential candidate of Atiku Abubakar’s PDP in the 2023 Presidential elections. Also decamping with Dr Okowa from the PDP to the APC was the Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori. This practice “has become recurring, often reflecting self-serving interests rather than a commitment to ideology or the electorate’s welfare.” . Critics argue that defection raises serious questions about public trust. As one media analysis bluntly put it, “Defections are a longstanding issue in Nigerian politics, calling into question the integrity and character of elected officials who switch parties midway through their tenure.” .
Of all the politicians who have contested against the incumbent President Bola Tinubu- Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso, have all been guilty of cross-carpeting from one party to two or three parties in the past. Whereas, President Tinubu has always remained a loyal and steadfast member of AD/ACN/APC, same structure, except change of name and mergers. This you must give to him.
Statistical data underline the scale: one watchdog reported that between Feb 2024 and Feb 2025, roughly 300 politicians defected to new parties – overwhelmingly moving into the ruling party . Major defections often come during lame-duck periods when careers hang in the balance. For example, in early 2025 dozens of legislators switched from the PDP to the APC, drawing accusations of betrayal from constituents. While Nigeria’s Constitution technically penalizes crossing the floor (an official loses seat if they defect without a party merger), enforcement has been weak, and politicians routinely reinterpret the rules or resign and recontest on a new ticket. The outcome is that party labels often seem to change for the sake of personal gain, reinforcing cynicism. In summary, there are no shared values or principles of any Nigerian political party, all that is paramount to most of these politicians is grabbing power and the allure of office.
Voter disillusionment has grown in parallel. Many Nigerians feel elections are contests between recycled politicians promising change they never deliver. A leading think-tank notes that turnout has “steadily decreased as voters have become disillusioned by the recycling of political candidates, the lack of internal democracy in political parties, and the failure of government to deliver real progress.” . Young people in particular often complain that the same set of elders reigns over politics, and fresh faces struggle to enter the arena. The two-party system tends to reserve top tickets for party godfathers rather than grassroots leaders, further entrenching patrons over performance.
Nor has the electoral process entirely insulated integrity. Nigeria consistently ranks low on global corruption indices, and each administration has been dogged by graft scandals, accusations of sexual harassment and misconduct in high places, and “big man” politics. (For example, successive fuel subsidy and budget scandals have implicated officials from both parties.) Many observers argue that as long as parties reward loyalty over merit, and as long as campaign finance remains opaque, and unaccounted for, genuine reformists will either leave politics or lose faith. This persistent cycle of “the same old players” undermines faith in institutions. The mass appeal of any Red Herring in the 2027 Presidential race, could tilt the results in favor of such a shock to the political equation. Such a campaign of an entirely new face into the race therefore, can be read as a symptom of deeper frustration: people would be eager to bypass party machines they no longer trust.
International Comparisons: Why Independents Matter
Nigeria’s restriction on independents is by no means the global norm. In well-established democracies, independent or third-party bids are quite common. In the United States, for example, the president has frequently been contested by independent candidates. (Think of Ross Perot in 1992 or Ralph Nader in 2000.) U.S. federal and state laws allow such campaigns; any qualified citizen may run once they meet age, citizenship, and ballot-access requirements. As noted earlier, the U.S. government succinctly states: “Anyone who [meets the age/citizenship/residency] requirements can declare their candidacy for president.” . This means American elections can feature dozens of candidates; while few win, independents can shape debates and offer protest options.
By contrast, Nigeria’s laws make no such provision. The implication is that many Nigerians who might prefer an independent or non-partisan candidate are forced into a binary choice or stay home. Studies of democratic pluralism often argue that independent runs can strengthen democracy by giving voice to citizens outside party structures. For example, an analysis of 2014 African elections notes that countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal, and Benin explicitly allow independent presidential candidates . Even within single-party dominance (as in Zimbabwe or Egypt), lawyers point out that the African Charter on Civil and Political Rights enshrines the principle that citizens have the right “to take part in the conduct of public affairs” through freely chosen representatives – a principle that arguably favors independent runs.
The case for reform has attracted local attention. ConstitutionalNet reported that the Nigerian House was “considering a bill to allow independent candidates” in elections . If approved, anyone meeting the signature thresholds (20% of voters in each state for president) could secure a spot on the ballot. Proponents say this would inject new competitiveness and accountability into politics. Detractors worry about overloading ballots or empowering wealthy individuals to game elections. But international experience suggests that signature requirements can mitigate frivolous bids (compare India’s deposit rules or Malaysia’s votes quorum) and that voters may welcome genuine outsiders if parties have uniformly failed them.
Ultimately, comparing Nigeria to the U.S. or its African peers highlights a choice in democratic design. Nigeria emulated America’s strong executive branch, but it has not adopted the same openness to independent candidacies. Whether that restriction remains tenable will likely be decided in coming years, as lawmakers debate the proposed amendments .
Prospects for a Reset
As we are now in 2025, observers are increasingly asking whether Nigeria’s political system needs a fundamental reset. Critics argue that merely alternating PDP and APC in power – often by narrow margins – has failed to deliver progress on the Feel-Good Index of Nigeria-jobs, infrastructure, education, food security, health care or security. The Nigerian youths are explicit that a fresh approach is needed, not more of the same. There is growing support for measures such as constitutional changes to allow independents, or legal limits on party-switching, or even term limits for legislators (to curb career politicians). For example, in 2013 then-President Goodluck Jonathan proposed constitutional amendments including independent candidature, term limits, and electronic voting – signaling that reform ideas have broad currency.
Of course, no system change is risk-free. Opponents of independent candidacies warn that a flood of candidates could confuse voters or fracture the ballot, and that wealthy individuals could dominate signature campaigns. Nonetheless, many Nigerians recall that our political history has often seen one-man rule or one-party dominance as much as we’ve seen multi-party drama. The current deadlock of two major parties might likewise need an injection of competition.
Beyond structure, there is consensus that clean governance must be prioritized. Voter frustration centers on corruption and incompetence, regardless of party. Campaigns like #NotTooYoungToRun (lowering age limits) and #EndSARS (police reform) demonstrate the public’s hunger for accountable leadership. Nigeria will not modernize if power remains with a small clique. Civil society and even international indices urge more transparency in campaign finance and civil service. Pressure also builds for merit-based appointments and adherence to rule-of-law.
Finally, the character of future leaders is a pressing question. Nigeria has a burgeoning tech sector and one of the world’s youngest populations: about 70% of Nigerians are under 35 . Success in the Fourth Industrial Revolution will hinge on skills in IT, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and innovation. Recognizing this, the government has launched programs like the 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme, aiming to train three million tech specialists by 2027 . As one commentator explains, “many nations across the world, Nigeria included, recognize the need to equip young people with the knowledge and skills needed to drive innovation as a foundation to grow [their] digital economy.” . This underscores that tomorrow’s challenges require leaders who understand AI, technology and data, not only the rent-seeking deals of the past.
In summary, Nigeria’s Fourth Republic has seen many democratic firsts – civilian rule for over 26 years, peaceful handovers, and more open debate than ever. Yet the persistence of the PDP–APC duopoly, recurring defection scandals, and widespread apathy point to a system under strain. Legal experts note that “the Nigerian Constitution and electoral laws do not recognise independent candidacy” , and many now question whether that should change. A thoughtful reset might involve amending the Constitution to welcome independent contenders, reforming parties to enforce merit and internal democracy, and empowering voters with more genuine choices. Nigeria’s young generation and its growing digital economy make clear that the era ahead demands innovation and integrity in leadership. As civil society organizations and even tech ministers have emphasized, the country’s future rests on unleashing entrepreneurial, AI and tech-savvy talent – and politics must catch up to that reality . Only with such changes can the Fourth Republic mature into the vibrant democracy its people yearn for.
NB: Sonny Iroche is a 2022-2023 Senior Academic Fellow at the African Studies Centre. University of Oxford. UK
• Post Graduate Degree in Artificial Intelligence for Business. Saïd Business School. University of Oxford. UK
• Member, National AI Strategy Committee
• Member UNESCO Technical Working Group on AI Readiness Methodology for Nigeria
• LinkedIn: http://linkedin.com/in/sonnyiroche
