By Sonny Iroche
For more than a decade, Nigeria’s northern and middle-belt states have endured relentless killings, kidnappings, and displacement. The jihadist insurgency waged by Boko Haram and its offshoot, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), has devastated communities and exposed the state’s inability to protect its citizens. The violence has spread beyond the North-East into the North-West and the Middle Belt, where banditry, herder-farmer clashes, and communal warfare have taken hold.
Roots of the Insurgency
The origins of these crises are tied to chronic underdevelopment in northern Nigeria, weak governance, and the collapse of governments in the Middle East and North Africa. The fall of Libya’s Gaddafi regime in 2011 unleashed massive arms stockpiles that flowed through the Sahel corridor into Chad, Niger, Cameroon, and ultimately Nigeria. The porous borders of West Africa have since become a highway for weapons, militants, and extremist ideologies.
Initially, Boko Haram emerged in 2009 from deep social inequality and resentment of Western education. Its evolution into a full-blown jihadist movement, and eventual link with ISIS, transformed a local rebellion into a transnational terrorist threat. The humanitarian toll has been catastrophic: tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and an entire generation denied education and stability.
Failure of Governance
Despite repeated military offensives and declarations of victory, successive Nigerian governments have failed to end the carnage. Under President Muhammadu Buhari, Islamic militants were paradoxically granted amnesty, with reports of some being integrated into the armed forces. The military’s heavy-handed approach and systemic corruption further alienated local populations and eroded public trust.
Political complicity and silence from some northern leaders deepened suspicions. Some former state governors from the North East and North West have been accused by critics of turning a blind eye to extremist infiltration. Meanwhile, state institutions have consistently failed to investigate or prosecute those responsible for atrocities, especially attacks on predominantly Christian communities in Benue, Plateau, Kaduna, and Taraba states. Occasionally, few mosques have been attacked, but not to the extent and scale of attacks on churches and Christian communities and schools, where students have been targeted.
The Middle Belt has become Nigeria’s bleeding heart, where thousands of farming villages, mostly Christian, have been razed by armed herders. The inability of security forces to protect lives and property has created a vacuum now filled by vigilantes, local militias, and revenge killings.
A Country on the Brink
The persistent killings, particularly during the Buhari years, projected Nigeria as a nation descending into chaos. Extremist violence has also spread covertly into the South-East and South-South, through sleeper cells and intelligence networks, threatening the fragile peace of the southern states.
The decision by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to run a Muslim–Muslim presidential ticket, and the recent official celebration of the Halal Economy, have further inflamed perceptions of religious imbalance. To many observers, these actions symbolize a government that is tone-deaf to the religious sensitivities that underpin Nigeria’s fragile unity.
It is against this backdrop that former US President Donald Trump, now back in office, in Trump 2.o, announced Nigeria’s designation as a “Country of Particular Concern (CPC)”, citing systematic religious persecution and unchecked killings of Christians. Trump accused Abuja of “failing to protect innocent lives” and warned that the Pentagon would consider punitive action if the Nigerian regime “fails to act decisively.”
Consequences of the CPC Designation
The CPC designation carries heavy diplomatic and economic implications. It places Nigeria among countries such as Iran, North Korea, and Afghanistan, accused of violating religious freedoms. Beyond moral condemnation, it can trigger sanctions, restricting military aid, intelligence cooperation, and even investment from US-aligned institutions.
For a nation already battling debt, inflation, and insecurity, the loss of international credibility could be devastating. Nigeria depends heavily on foreign direct investment, remittances, and multilateral support from partners like the US, EU, and World Bank. Any withdrawal or conditionality tied to human rights and religious freedom could further strain the economy and weaken the naira, Nigeria’s currency.
More importantly, the CPC label undermines Nigeria’s moral authority in regional and global affairs. It sends a signal to investors, aid partners, and the diaspora that the government has lost control of its internal security. It emboldens extremist groups, who interpret the US rebuke as proof that the Nigerian state is weak and divided along sectarian lines.
Diplomatically, it could alter Nigeria’s security cooperation with Washington and complicate its leadership role in ECOWAS and the African Union, where credibility and stability are prerequisites for influence. The designation also damages Nigeria’s soft power, especially as the world increasingly measures national standing not just by economic size but by human rights and moral governance. This designation also dims whatever little chances that Nigeria may have had in advocating a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.
What Tinubu Must Do
President Tinubu must seize this moment to change Nigeria’s trajectory. The government’s first duty is to protect its citizens, irrespective of religion, ethnicity, or region. To do so, it must adopt immediate and verifiable measures.
First, Tinubu should launch a transparent, internationally monitored investigation into the mass killings in Bornu, Benue, Plateau, and Kaduna states, ensuring that both the perpetrators and complicit officials are publicly prosecuted. Justice must be seen to be done.
Second, the President should establish a National Commission on Religious Tolerance and Inter-Faith Peacebuilding to address sectarian grievances, promote interfaith dialogue, and recommend long-term reconciliation strategies.
Third, Nigeria must tighten its borders and modernize surveillance systems, using AI- powered drones and facial recognition AI technology to monitor the global movements of these terrorists. The Defence Chief’s proposal to fence the country’s porous frontiers should be complemented with drone monitoring, satellite mapping, and biometric systems to intercept the illegal flow of arms and foreign fighters through the Sahel.
Fourth, Tinubu must re-engage diplomatically with the United States and the European Union. For nearly three years, since the withdrawal of all 109 Nigerian envoys from their diplomatic missions, new envoys have not been appointed, thereby leaving our embassies without top diplomats who can intervene on our domestic challenges. No President or Foreign Minister, especially the USA, will engage in any diplomatic dialogue with a Charge D’Affaires. By demonstrating accountability and transparency in dealing with religious and security crises, Nigeria can persuade its partners to reconsider the CPC designation and restore confidence in the country’s governance.
Fifth, the administration should review the controversial reintegration of former terrorists into the military. Instead, focus should be placed on rehabilitating victims of insurgency, widows, orphans, and internally displaced persons, whose pain has been ignored for too long. The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, should be strengthened to cater for the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) in IDP camps.
Sixthly, the Governors, Leaders of Thought, Religious and Community leaders, Ministers and Heads of Security Agencies of the entire Northern Region, should now face the reality of the moment, and come up with suggestions to the presidency for lasting and sustainable solutions to the security crisis engulfing the North, and by extension, Nigeria. If there is no peace in any part of Nigeria, there will be no peace in every part of Nigeria. The leaders of the Southern Region, should also do the same. Now is the time, that we must all put up our thinking hats to put a stop to this senseless carnage and wanton killing of innocent souls.
Finally, the government must adopt a whole-of-society approach to security. The Nigerian Armed Forces, traditional rulers, religious leaders, civil society, and regional governments must all be involved in rebuilding trust and dismantling extremist recruitment networks.
The Way Forward
The crisis of insecurity in Nigeria is not merely a law-and-order problem, it did not start today, it did not start with the Tinubu government. it is the consequence of deep structural decay. Successive governments have allowed impunity, injustice, and religious manipulation to corrode national unity. Without decisive leadership and institutional reform, the nation risks permanent fragmentation.
Trump’s declaration should therefore serve as both a warning and an opportunity. A warning that the world is watching. If Nigeria cannot end the killings, then Trump may fill the gap for us, which has its dire consequences, and an opportunity for Nigeria’s leaders to rise above sectarian politics, confront the roots of extremism, and restore the country’s moral standing.
The blood of the innocent cries out for justice; only decisive governance, not denial or political spin, can silence it. Nigeria’s leaders must now choose between the difficult path of reform, or the darker road of history repeating itself.
We must not wait for the CPC designation of Nigeria or the external threat by President Donald Trump for our leadership to stem the killings and insecurity in the country to save lives and property.
As I have often maintained: Nigeria is Too Big to be small
NB: Sonny Iroche
• CEO, GenAI Learning Concepts Ltd
• Senior Academic Fellow. African Studies Centre, University of Oxford (2022-2023)
• Member, National AI Strategy Committee of Nigeria
• Member, UNESCO Technical Working Group on AI Readiness Assessment
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonnyiroche
