By Sonny Iroche
Introduction: A Nation at a Crossroads
Since attaining independence from Britain on October 1, 1960, Nigeria has stood as a continental giant, Africa’s most populous country, blessed with vast natural resources, strategic geographical positioning, and a highly educated, industrious diaspora. Yet, in spite of these advantages, the nation’s democratic journey has been punctuated by electoral controversies, political violence, and recurring questions over whether the will of the people truly prevails at the ballot box.
As 2027 draws nearer, Nigeria faces a defining test. This will not just be another election year, it will be a measure of our maturity as a democratic nation and our ability to lead Africa by example. In a global climate where democratic norms are under strain, Nigeria has both the responsibility and the opportunity to prove that the African democratic experiment can flourish.
The imperative is clear: the 2027 presidential and gubernatorial elections must be free, fair, transparent, and violence-free. The stakes are not merely political, they are existential for Nigeria’s unity, credibility, and leadership on the continent.
Part I: A Political History Written in Highs and Lows
To appreciate the urgency of reform ahead of 2027, we must revisit Nigeria’s political history since independence. Our story is one of repeated cycles, moments of democratic optimism cut short by disputes, coups, or the erosion of public trust.
1. The First Republic (1960–1966)
Nigeria’s first post-independence elections (1964 general elections and the 1965 Western Region elections) were marred by allegations of rigging, intimidation, and violence. Deep regional and ethnic divisions, coupled with a winner-takes-all political culture, ignited unrest, particularly in the Western Region’s infamous “Operation Wetie” crisis. The First Republic collapsed in 1966, giving way to military rule and the subsequent civil war, 1967-1970.
2. Military Interlude and the Second Republic (1979–1983)
After 13 years of military governance, the 1979 elections brought President Shehu Shagari to power. Though relatively peaceful, the elections revealed weaknesses in electoral adjudication, the twelve two-thirds Supreme Court ruling being one example. The 1983 elections, however, were widely condemned for large-scale malpractice, leading to a loss of legitimacy and paving the way for another coup.
3. The Third Republic and the Annulled Hope (1993)
The June 12, 1993 presidential election, presumably won by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (M.K.O.) Abiola, remains widely regarded as Nigeria’s freest and fairest vote. The annulment by General Ibrahim Babangida was a national trauma, sparking protests, sanctions, and a democratic crisis that lingered until 1999.
4. The Fourth Republic (1999–present)
Democracy was restored in 1999 under President Olusegun Obasanjo. Since then, Nigeria has conducted seven general elections (1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023).
• 2003 & 2007: Marked by systemic rigging, ballot snatching, and violence. The 2007 polls were so flawed that even President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua publicly admitted their shortcomings.
• 2011: Though an improvement, they witnessed post-election violence in Northern Nigeria, claiming over 800 lives.
• 2015: A milestone, Nigeria achieved its first peaceful transfer of power between political parties, as Muhammadu Buhari defeated incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.
• 2019 & 2023: Electoral technology such as card readers and BVAS promised progress, but delays, logistical failures, vote-buying, and judicial controversies again marred public confidence.
Part II: Why 2027 Must Be Different
The upcoming 2027 elections are not just another electoral cycle; they are a referendum on the future of Nigeria’s democracy. Several factors make them pivotal:
1. A Youthful, Restless Electorate
Over 70% of Nigerians are under the age of 35. Many of these young citizens participated actively in movements like #EndSARS and are demanding accountability, transparency, and reform. Their disillusionment with politics must be addressed through credible elections.
2. Nigeria’s African Leadership Role
As the largest economy and population in Africa, Nigeria’s democratic health sets the tone for the continent. Free and fair polls would strengthen our moral authority in ECOWAS, the African Union, and global forums.
3. Economic Urgency
Nigeria’s economy faces structural challenges, unemployment, inflation, debt, and overreliance on oil. Political stability and legitimacy are prerequisites for implementing difficult but necessary reforms.
4. Global Perceptions
In an era of heightened scrutiny, international investors, partners, and institutions judge governance quality through electoral credibility. Flawed elections weaken investor confidence.
Part III: Lessons from the Past
Nigeria’s electoral history reveals recurring pitfalls:
• Politicisation of the electoral body (INEC): While INEC has introduced reforms, questions about independence persist.
• Weaponisation of ethnicity and religion: Politicians often exploit identity fault lines, deepening division.
• Vote-buying: Now alarmingly prevalent, eroding the sanctity of the ballot.
• Judicial entanglement: Courts have become arbiters of final election outcomes, sometimes undermining voters’ choices.
• Election-related violence: Intimidation, thuggery, and killings in hotly contested regions.
If unaddressed, these issues will again define 2027, making the will of the people secondary to political manipulation.
Part IV: Charting a Path to a Free and Fair 2027
To reverse the cycle, Nigeria must adopt a whole-of-society approach involving the government, INEC, political parties, civil society, security agencies, media, and the electorate.
1. Electoral Reforms and INEC Independence
• Appoint credible citizens into INEC leadership through a multi-stakeholder process involving the National Assembly, judiciary, and civil society, not the sitting president alone.
• Guarantee financial autonomy for INEC to prevent executive influence.
• Invest in electoral technology but ensure redundancy systems to avoid BVAS or server failures.
2. Political Party Accountability
• Enforce internal party democracy, transparent primaries reduce pre-election litigation.
• Disqualify candidates or parties engaging in violence or vote-buying.
• Implement strict campaign finance monitoring to reduce illicit funding.
3. Security Sector Neutrality
• Police, military, and civil defence must protect voters, not intimidate them.
• Special election security units should be deployed with non-partisan oversight.
• Prosecute electoral offenders swiftly to send a deterrent message.
4. Civic Education & Voter Preparedness
• Nationwide campaigns on voters’ rights and responsibilities.
• Engage traditional rulers, faith leaders, and influencers to preach peace.
• Encourage youth participation in election observation.
5. Technology & Transparency
• Real-time publishing of polling unit results on INEC’s IReV portal.
• Use blockchain-backed verification for result collation.
• Public audit of election results before final declarations.
Part V: The Moral Imperative of Violence-Free Elections
Elections are not war. Yet Nigeria’s political contests too often resemble battlegrounds. The human cost, lives lost, communities traumatized, must never again be the price of political ambition.
We must reject the mindset that electoral victory is worth bloodshed. A nation of over 200 million people cannot afford to normalise post-election violence. Political leaders must sign and honour peace accords, and their supporters must be held accountable for breaches.
Part VI: The Will of the People Must Prevail
The essence of democracy is that power flows from the consent of the governed. Every Nigerian’s vote, whether cast in Umuahia, Lagos, Maidugiri, Jos, Kano, Yenagoa, Enugu, or Sokoto, must count equally.
When electoral outcomes reflect the will of the people:
• Citizens trust their government.
• Leaders govern with legitimacy and moral authority.
• National unity is strengthened.
But when elections are stolen, manipulated, or marred by violence, the social contract fractures, and cynicism, apathy, and instability follow.
Conclusion: 2027 as a Continental Example
Nigeria’s 2027 elections are an opportunity to reset our democratic trajectory. A credible, violence-free process will not only stabilise our nation but inspire Africa. From Dakar to Nairobi, from Accra to Johannesburg, the world will be watching.
We owe it to our founding fathers, to the heroes of June 12, to every Nigerian who has queued under the sun and rain to vote, and to future generations yet unborn, to deliver an election where the voice of the people is the final authority.
Let us make 2027 the year Nigeria proved that Africa’s giant is also Africa’s democratic beacon.
N.B: Sonny Iroche was a Senior Academic Fellow at the African Studies Centre at the University of Oxford. And holds a Post Graduate degree in Artificial Intelligence from the Saïd Business School of the University of Oxford, UK.
