By Obinna Uballa
The Lagos Business School (LBS) has projected that Nigeria’s e-commerce market could surpass $16 billion by 2030, noting that the country’s digital transformation will play a decisive role in shaping future economic growth.
The Dean of LBS, Professor Olayinka David-West, represented by Professor Akintola Owolabi, made the projection at the 35th annual conference of the Finance Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN), held in Lagos on Saturday.
David-West said Nigeria stands “on the brink of a digital revolution” driven by its young population, rising internet penetration, and fast-evolving fintech and e-commerce ecosystems. She pointed out that as of March 2024, more than 163 million Nigerians were online, representing 43.5 per cent internet penetration, while telecommunications contributed about 18 to 20 per cent to GDP.
“The digital revolution goes beyond statistics. It is reshaping commerce, services, and livelihoods across Nigeria,” she said. According to her, platforms like Jumia and Konga are powering e-commerce expansion, while logistics innovators such as Kwik and GIGL are creating new value chains that boost efficiency and unlock jobs.
Nigeria’s financial technology sector has also been a key driver, attracting over $2 billion in fresh investment in 2024 to cement the country’s leadership in Africa’s fintech space. Major banks such as Access Bank and GTBank are deploying Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to improve fraud prevention, enhance credit scoring, and deliver tailored services.
On taxation, David-West noted that Nigeria’s 6 per cent Digital Services Tax (DST), introduced in 2022 on non-resident digital service providers, alongside VAT on foreign services and levies such as the N50 electronic money transfer fee, has opened new revenue channels. “Digital payments and mobile money are also helping formalise the informal sector, improve tax compliance, and integrate more businesses into the financial system,” she said.
However, she stressed that structural challenges remain. Gaps in electricity supply, broadband access in rural areas, and a shortage of digital skills continue to limit participation. Regulators, she added, must strike a balance between encouraging innovation and ensuring consumer protection.
FICAN chairman, Mr. Chima Titus, echoed the call, describing the digital economy as Nigeria’s “new backbone for growth.” He highlighted that the ICT sector contributed 18.3 per cent to GDP in Q2 2025, while digital payment transactions exceeded N600 trillion in the first half of the year, up 22 per cent from 2024. Mobile money accounts, now surpassing 73 million, have extended financial inclusion deep into rural areas.
Titus further pointed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Payment System Vision 2020, which integrates artificial intelligence, blockchain settlement systems, and cross-border payments under the African Continental Free Trade Area, as evidence of ongoing reforms.
“No digital economy can thrive without an equitable and effective tax structure,” he said, urging policymakers to align reforms with innovation to unlock Nigeria’s digital potential.
