The global oil and gas industry is facing a severe downturn with widespread job losses and investment cuts.
Falling crude prices, exacerbated by OPEC+ output increases, are making it difficult for western majors to fund projects and shareholder payouts.
The downturn is significantly impacting the US shale industry and raising concerns about the future of domestic oil production.
Oil and gas producers worldwide are bracing for a prolonged downturn, with job losses and investment cuts spreading through the industry, according to a new report from Financial Times. ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and BP have all announced large-scale layoffs, while others are shelving or selling projects to conserve cash. “This isn’t just a Conoco problem,” said Kirk Edwards of Latigo Petroleum. “It’s a flashing red warning light for the entire US oil and gas industry.”
FT writes that the sector is under pressure as crude prices, which spiked after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have since dropped by half. Opec+ has shifted strategy, increasing output to regain market share, a move that adds further price strain. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie predict Brent could slide under $60 a barrel by early 2026 and stay there “up to a few years.” Below that level, western majors struggle to fund both shareholder payouts and new projects.
The cuts are hitting hardest in the US, where shale drilling requires around $65 a barrel to stay profitable, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve. ConocoPhillips has warned that as many as 3,250 staff may lose their jobs by Christmas, while Chevron has been working through 8,000 cuts since February. BP has already trimmed 4,700 positions. “The way we protect the most jobs for the most people is by remaining competitive,” said Chevron’s Mike Wirth.
State-owned producers are also retrenching: Saudi Aramco raised $10bn by selling part of its pipeline network, and Malaysia’s Petronas shed 5,000 jobs. Capital spending worldwide is forecast to fall 4.3% this year to $341.9bn — the first decline since 2020 — and US output is expected to contract for the first time since 2021.
Some companies are leaning on outsourcing and digital tools to offset the downturn. “AI is giving operators new ways to optimise in a challenging market,” said Andrew Gillick of Enverus. But industry veterans warn that shrinking investment may have long-term consequences. “Domestic oil producers are finding it hard… which is costing jobs,” said Roe Patterson of Marauder Capital. “The problem is that our domestic oil production may not be there when the country needs it in the future.”
Credit: Oilprice.com
