Revealed: How OPEC Oil War Cost Jonathan 2015 Election

By Dotun Akintomide & Olamilekan Okeowo

The plan by former President Goodluck Jonathan to increase Nigeria’s oil output from 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) quota approved by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to about 5mbpd has been fingered as the key reason why he lost the 2015 presidential race, The New Diplomat has learnt.

This much was revealed by a former National Vice Chairman, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Adedeji Doherty.

Doherty in an interview revealed that Jonathan’s problems started when he planned to increase daily oil production output to 5mbpd against the approved 2.1mbpd quota approved by OPEC for Nigeria being an active member.

In order to boost Nigeria’s production capacity, he noted that President Jonathan tried to promote peace and stability in the Niger Delta and also lobbied OPEC to make the former Petroleum Minister, Diezani Alison Madueke the Chairman of OPEC.

“The whole essence was to increase the production output hovering between 2.1-2.2mbpd as that time to about 5mbpd.” he explained.

However, this decision by Jonathan to boost Nigeria’s production was rejected at OPEC which also made Jonathan to incur the wrath of  countries including the United States and Russia that were not even members of the OPEC block.

“If you know the creation of OPEC, you must have heard about the seven sisters: Exxon, Shell, BP, Mobil, Texaco, Gulf and Chevron. These are the ones that control the global oil and they all drill throughout Africa,” he narrated.

He lamented that the problems of Jonathan started from there, whereby Nigeria was producing only 2.2mbpd compared with huge expenditure needed to finance developmental projects.

While berating the international communities for their role in ensuring Jonathan lost the election, Doherty pointed out that whereas, Jonathan, being a product of the Niger Delta while trying to foster security and increase oil production output, Nigeria started experiencing the downward trend of oil price from above $120 to $70 per barrel with 2.1 million barrels per day, which is the OPEC approved quota.

“If we have a population of about 200 million people, while Saudi Arabia has 30 million, yet it’s doing 10 million barrels per day. Angola has maybe 11 million people, but it’s doing about 2.7 million barrels per day, there is no need for Nigeria to remain in OPEC,” he suggested.

He said the Jonathan’s administration introduced Presidential tax force to augment the 2.1mbpd OPEC’s quota by creating non-OPEC oil to further increase production for local consumption, as well as generate Foreign Exchange, Forex for the nation.

“Other countries don’t have a quarter of what we have. Jonathan introduced presidential tax force to create non-OPEC oil and OPEC production to raise foreign exchange needed to stabilize the Naira against other currencies and this made Nigerians not to suffer.

As a result of the production restriction, he claimed that the administration of Jonathan was forced to produce and declare 2.1mbpd by OPEC, hence the need to produce outside the OPEC quota to boost production.

“To satisfy the militants and ensure peace in the Niger Delta, a certain proportion of Nigeria’s crude was being shared to the boys to calm their nerves and guarantee peace despite Jonathan being a product of the Niger Delta,” he added.

According to him, the decision by Jonathan to produce non-OPEC oil cost him his relationship with United States and made him lost the 2015 Presidential election. “That’s the truth. If you want to know the truth today that was what cost him 2015 election. America came in and did everything to hand over power to the current president,” he noted.

“However, look at what has happened to the black market rate because the militants stopped damaging oil facilities due to Vice President Yemi Osinbanjo’s involvement. With the relative peace, oil production has increased to 2 mbpd. You can get dollar rate for business, education and travels because more money has come into the system.” Doherty expressed. 

Revealing how Jonathan achieved increased production figure, he explained that the former President brought successful entrepreneurs into oil industry. “He allowed everybody to sell and get his/her commission and bring the money to the coffers of the country per barrel sold. And that was why the money was flowing in the circulation.”

This latest revelation is coming on the heels of how the international communities preferred the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari over Jonathan which is detailed in a new book  ‘Against the Run of Play’, written by Segun Adeniyi to be launched on Friday.

The book which chronicled how former President Jonathan lost his 2015 re-election bid reported how Jonathan accused Obama of influencing the opinions of world leaders against him.

“I got on very well with Prime Minister David Cameron but at some point, I noticed that the Americans were putting pressure on him and he had joined them against me,” he noted in the new book.

“But I didn’t realise how far President Obama was prepared to go to remove me until France caved in to the pressure from America.” 

Explaining how desperate Obama was to have his way, Jonathan said he had a good relationship with President Francois Hollande of France, but the former US president muddled the waters. 

He then said weeks to the election, Hollande joined “the Americans in supporting the opposition against me.”

The former President said the Obama administration kept citing allegations of corruption against his government as the reason for its stand against him, but that it was not specific in its accusation.