By Abiola Olawale
Net capital outflows from Nigeria’s equities market have surged by more than 1,073% over three years. Data from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) reveals that foreign portfolio investment (FPI) net outflows jumped from N22.68 billion in the first seven months of 2023 to a staggering N266.07 billion by July 2026.
Recent figures underscore a deepening challenge for Nigeria’s financial ecosystem: attracting international capital is no longer the primary hurdle retaining it is.
According to NGX data spanning January to July across successive years, the widening deficit highlights persistent caution among foreign portfolio investors.
YtD July 2023: Inflows stood at N81.47 billion against outflows of N104.15 billion, leaving a net outflow of N22.68 billion.
YtD July 2024: Inflows rose to N266.64 billion, but outflows outpaced them at N331.36 billion, widening the net outflow to N64.72 billion.
YtD July 2025: Inflows reached N609.73 billion, while outflows climbed to N671.56 billion, resulting in a net outflow of N61.83 billion.
YtD July 2026: The situation deteriorated sharply. Inflows recorded N513.36 billion against massive outflows of N779.43 billion, culminating in a record net outflow of N266.07 billion. March 2026 was the most volatile month, recording the largest single monthly deficit at N74.72 billion.
Analysts said the trend suggests that the challenge facing the Nigerian equities market is no longer simply attracting international capital, but retaining it once it enters the market.
They attributed the widening gap to factors including profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing and continued caution over Nigeria’s macroeconomic and investment environment.
The N266.07 billion net outflow recorded by July 2026 was more than four times the N61.83 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 and about 11.7 times the N22.68 billion recorded in 2023.
The development occurred despite a strong expansion in overall trading activity on the NGX. Total transactions reached about N11.98 trillion in the first seven months of 2026, almost twice the N6.01 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. The increase, however, was driven largely by domestic investors.
Monthly data showed that foreign outflows exceeded inflows in every month between January and July.
January recorded inflows of N47.86 billion against outflows of N66.28 billion, resulting in a deficit of N18.42 billion.
In February, inflows rose 39.4 per cent month-on-month to N66.71 billion, while outflows increased 9.1 per cent to N72.32 billion. The deficit narrowed to N5.61 billion.
March recorded the largest movement, with inflows jumping 60.5 per cent to N107.05 billion. However, outflows surged 151.3 per cent to N181.77 billion, producing the year’s highest monthly deficit of N74.72 billion.
In April, inflows fell 15.1 per cent to N90.84 billion, while outflows declined 13.7 per cent to N156.94 billion, resulting in a deficit of N61.10 billion.
May provided temporary relief as inflows fell marginally to N87.60 billion, while outflows plunged 38.8 per cent to N96.01 billion, narrowing the deficit to N8.41 billion.
The improvement was reversed in June. Outflows rose 19.9 per cent to N115.08 billion, while inflows declined 18.1 per cent to N71.71 billion, widening the deficit to N43.37 billion.
July recorded the weakest monthly inflow of N41.59 billion, down 42 per cent from June. Outflows fell 20.9 per cent to N91.03 billion, leaving a deficit of N49.44 billion.
