By Hamilton Nwosa (Head, The New Diplomat’s Polling and Data Tracking Desk. With additional field reports from our Niger Delta Bureau Team led by Akanimore Kufre)
With the September 19 Edo State governorship election here, the two leading governorship candidates: incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki (PDP) and his main challenger, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu (APC) are fighting in a head-to-head, neck-and-neck crucial governorship battle that is set to redefine the political architecture of Edo State. The stakes are very high with political temperatures running at all-time high!
As at today, statistical data indicate that about 5% of eligible voters in the scheduled poll are still undecided as to where they would oscillate. Going by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s figures, the number of registered voters in Edo State stand at about approximately 2,210,534 with spread across the 3 Senatorial zones and 18 Local government areas (LGAs) in the state. Who secures majority of eligible votes from the designated 2,210,534 eligible voters in Saturday’s poll? This is how the candidates may likely fare in Saturday’s election including the dynamics that may shape the elections…
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- The Dynamics That May Shape The Poll…
From field questionnaires administered randomly on potential voters across the 18 local LGAs in Edo State over the last one month, field data tracked, telephone calls made, field interviews conducted, focus group discussions held by our team of reporters, field workers, data analysts, and data aggregated across the three senatorial zones, indications are that current existing political dynamics indicate a very tight, neck-and-neck battle in many LGAs except in North Senatorial zone where the APC is projected to have a field day! Though, there are 14 political parties on the ballot for Saturday’s election, the actual contest is between APC and PDP, and our projections are premised on this reality.
The New Diplomat’s survey, analysis, projections and computations are based on INEC’s statistical data of registered voters in Edo State (2,210,534), the National Population Commission (NPC) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures and data which put the state’s population at 4,234,600. Of these figures, our team then undertook a random sampling of potential voters (those with PVCs).
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- The Swings, Political Trolls…
Thus as the Edo State governorship poll enter into crucial stages, stretching both the PDP and APC to a breaking point, findings from The New Diplomat’s survey based on defined metrics, show the following dynamics: It’s projected to be neck-and-neck race in the Edo South as both the APC candidate and his PDP counterpart seem to be equally matched in this zone. Indications from our field reporters show that both the PDP and APC are cresting head-to-head in Edo South with both parties projected to tie in 2 crucial LGAs while they may equally triumph in two LGAs each respectively. However, a decisive third LGA (Ovia North-East where the Igbinedions hold the aces) seemingly up for grab as the political leadership has not indicated where they stand!
In Edo Central, the PDP is estimated to lead in 3 LGAs while APC is projected to triumph in 2 LGAs. In this zone, the Esan nation, the sentiment seems to align with some political permutations among eligible and potential voters that the Esan stand a chance of producing the governor of Edo state in 2024 if Governor Obaseki wins. This dynamics is found to be working heavily in PDP’s favour in Edo Central, with the PDP projected to coast home with about 53% to APC’s 42%. However, there are still unexpected swings and oscillation shaping potential voters behavior in this senatorial zone. Edo Central has 17% of the state’s voting capabilities.
In Edo North, the political permutations are however different. Of the six LGAs, sampled respondents seem to give the trophy to APC in all the LGAs. Though the likes of Mike Ogadiahme, High Chief Raymond Dokpesi, and Shaibu may put up some fight, the combined forces of Senator Francis Alimikhena, Prof Julius Ihonvbere, Pally Iriase, Abdul Oroh, Clem Agba, APC serving House of Representatives members, elected members of Edo state House of Assembly who were denied inauguration, etc would over-power the PDP. It is likely to be a field day for the APC in Edo North. Other dynamics at play may include the Otaru of Auchi who is said to be unhappy with Shaibu.
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The estimated voting and population strength of each of the three Senatorial zones stand at approximately: Central-17%; South-58%; and North 25% respectively. From collated field data, the APC seems to be holding firmly to Edo North with a strong projected 80% support preference to PDP’s 19%. On the other hand, the PDP is projected to be holding tightly to Edo Central with an estimated 53% support to APC’s 42%. In Edo South with a projected voting strength of 58% of the state’s voting capabilities, the dynamics are unpredictable with swings, horse- trading, political oscillation escalating at all time high.
Edo South Senatorial zone is the home zone of both the PDP candidate and the APC candidate. The interplay of political factors are like twists, turns with interests and preferences ebbing and surging among sampled potential voters. Here, both candidates are equally matched with both estimated to garner comfortable leads in 2 LGAs each (PDP-2, APC-2), run head-to-head in two while one is still up for grab depending on where the Igbinedions, regardless of party affiliation, would oscillate. But as at last count, Ovia Norh-East where the Igbinedions hold strong sway is projected to be swinging in APC’s favour. Thus, the South Senatorial zone is projected currently as 50-50 race between APC and PDP. It seems deadlocked!
- What Are The Likely Factors Driving Potential Voters Attitude…?
What are the dynamics shaping this pattern of estimated behavior among potential voters in Edo State?
- Edo North (APC’s imperial kingdom-APC’s 80% support while PDP holds 19%…)
In Edo North, the race is seen as a straight fight between Obaseki and Oshiomhole with the later projected to swing 80% of block support for APC leaving PDP with a marginal 19% support courtesy of Shaibu, Obende, Ogiadohme, etc. This is the dynamics principally shaping the attitudes here. In addition, Edo North is considered as APC’s imperial kingdom. Alimikhena, Ihonvbere, Pally Iriase, Pastor Obadan, Abdul Oroh, Clem Agba, Ken Ihensekhi, Taiwo Akerele, Abubakar Momoh, etc are said to be lining up behind Oshiomhole.
- Edo Central (PDP projected to lead with 53% while APC’s holds 42%…)
In Edo Central, the Esan area, the sentiment seems to align with some political permutations among eligible voters that the Esan stand a chance of producing the governor of Edo state in 2024 if Obaseki wins. This dynamics is found to be working heavily in PDP’s favour in this zone. PDP is projected to coast home with about 53% to APC’s 42% ‘s voters preference. Edo Central has 17% of the state’s voting capabilities.
- Edo South (Tight race with PDP, APC in neck-and-neck; 50%-50%;Too Close to Call…)
In contrast to the North, the situation appears sharply different in Edo South. For instance, in Oredo LGA, for instance, supporters of both PDP and APC are projected to be fighting bumper-to-bumper with no one maintaining a clear lead. It is too-close-to-call race. The PDP is however projected to lead with massive votes in Ikpoba-Okha LGA which is densely populated like Oredo with huge registered voters. The key factor that seems to be shaping the preference here is that some key allies of Governor Obaseki like Osaradion Ogie, Matthew Iduruyikemwen, etc hail from this LGA and are likely to root for PDP.
As earlier stated, in Oredo, the APC and PDP are fighting neck-to-neck in a ferocious war that have left sampled potential voters swinging back and forth. On APC’s side are Major- Gen. Charles Airhiavbere, a former governorship aspirant who asked all his allies and foot soldiers to work for APC’s Ize-Iyamu; former deputy governor Lucky Imasuen, Tony Kabaka, whose hotel was demolished for allegedly breaching state building permit laws, among others. On Obaseki’s side, are former governor Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, Senator Uzamare who are equally determined to tilt the political balance in PDP’s favour. Also, Governor Obaseki himself hails from this LGA which makes the battle more fierce. The home base factor is projected to play a decisive role here. Another curious dynamics here is that some elected legislators are not openly, vigorously campaigning thus fuelling permutations that some political horse-trading, trade-offs among the political elite may be at play in Oredo and elsewhere in the South! Another key dynamics that is quite potent here is the perceived influence of Palace Chiefs like 91-year old Chief David Edbiri, Esogban of Benin Kingdom who has never hidden his sympathies for the APC. Besides, APC’s Ize-Iyamu’s perceived grassroots acceptability appears to resonate with the ordinary folks.
In Orhionmwon LGA where APC’s Ize-Iyamu comes from, sampled field data show that APC is projected to garner massive votes making it an impregnable fortress to crack. This is also the home LGA of Dr Pius Odubu, a former deputy governor of Edo, and Engr Chris Ogiewonyi, a former Minister of state for petroleum. Both are of the APC. Orhionmwon has an estimated 118,672 registered voters. Similarly, Ovia South-West is projected to be strongly rooting for APC. On the other hand, Egor, the third largest LGA in Edo State is estimated to be tilting towards PDP. Ovia North-East is still unclear with the Igbinedions holding the aces but seems to be leaning graphically towards APC in last ditch-moves.
- How the Survey was conducted…
A total of 3,600 questionnaires distributed randomly with determined numbers administered on potential registered voters. The team then randomly sampled their preferences across the 18 LGAs in Edo State with a distribution pattern of 200 per LGA. The New Diplomat Poll Trackers then tracked, gathered, aggregated and analyzed the sampled respondents data and match same with their preferences among the parties, candidates and ascertain factors driving their preferences. However, on the whole, Saturday’s election promises to be a terrific war with swings back and forth between APC and PDP. From our field survey, the following mechanics represent how each of the two major governorship candidates as projected stand in the 18 LGAs:
- The Demographics…
Edo South Senatorial zone is the largest Senatorial district. It has about 58% of the State’s projected voters demographics strength. It is followed by Edo North with a projected voting and population capability of 25% and Edo Central which comes third with an estimated 17% voting and population strength. However, political analysts are quick to explain that the huge voting strength of Edo South is largely cosmopolitan as it is made up of diverse ethnic, professional groups just like in Lagos State.
- Projections of How the APC and PDP May Fare in the 18 LGAs..
EDO CENTRAL SENATORIAL ZONE: 17% of Voting strength(364,998 Registered Voters)
(This Central Senatorial zone controls 17% of the state’s population and projected voting strength. From collated field data and reports, the PDP is projected to triumph in 3 LGAs while the APC is projected to win in 2 LGAs. This Zone has 5 LGAs..
1. Esan Central (50,058 Registered Voters: 42, 042 projected to have PVCs(PDP’s base..)
2. Esan North-East (84,245 Registered Voters:66,790 projected to have PVCs(PDP’s stronghold..)
3. Esan South East(76,842 Registered Voters: 58,802 Projected to have PVCs(APC’s projected to Lead)
4. Esan West(99,983 Registered Voters:83,467 projected to have PVCs (PDP’s support base)
5. Igueben (46,828 Registered Voters:34,988 projected to have PVCs( APC’s stronghold )
- EDO NORTH SENATORIAL ZONE: 25% Voting strength (564,122 Registered Voters)
The APC is projected to have a landslide triumph here with about 80%. The race here is regarded as an epic battle between Oshiomhole (who is regarded in Edo North as an iconic son) and Gov Obaseki, the incumbent governor. PDP is projected to garner about 19% voters preference. This senatorial zone makes up 25% of the state’s population.
1. Akoko-Edo(Registered voters 119,254; PVCs collected 115,343 : (APC’s undiluted support base)
2 Etsako Central (Registered voters 84,245; PVCs collected 42,042; (Overwhelmingly APC)
3. Etsako East (Registered voters 81,639; PVCs collected 67,715( APC’s domain)
4. Etsako West ( Registered voters 160,137; PVCs collected 128,188 (Shaibu will put up a fight but APC is projected to win the trophy)
5. Owan East (Registered voters 91,841; PVCs collected 77,827 (APC projected to lead)
6. Owan West (Registered voters 61,193; PVCs collected 46,245 (APC projected to lead)
EDO SOUTH SENATORIAL ZONE: 58% of Voting Strength (1,281,414 Registered Voters)
It is a clear battle of strength as the two leading political parties are very strong here. The PDP has a Senator but the APC and PDP have equal representation in the House of Representatives here. In this senatorial Zone, both PDP and APC’s army of supporters are fighting tooth and nail to overwhelm one another. Both the APC and PDP candidates are also from this zone which makes the battle quite fierce. As earlier indicated PDP is projected to lead very massively in Ikpoba-Okha and maintain a neck-and-neck race in Oredo. PDP may clinch the lead in Egor. On the other hand, APC is estimated to triumph with soaring and surging leads in Orhionmwon, and Ovia South West. The dynamics are tilting strongly in favour of APC in Ovia North East, partly because of influential political leaders (Igbinedions) who are gravitating towards the APC. However, as thing stand, the South is too-close-to call.
1. Ikpoba-Okha (Registered voters 315,410; PVCs collected 214,822: (PDP is projected to lead)
2. Oredo (Registered voters 313,553; PVCs collected 240,197 ( Too close to Call as both PDP and APC’s allies like Major- Gen Charles Airhiavbere, Tony Kabaka, Lucky Imasuen(APC) and Odigie-Oyegun, Senator Uzamare(PDP) are projected to engage in fierce battle for supremacy. The Governor is from here, and his home base factor is equally tilting dynamics in his favour. However, field reports and data indicate serious swings among potential voters such that Oredo is oscillating back and forth. It’s a too close to call race here)
3. Orhionmwon (Registered voters 118,672; PVCs collected 102,739 ( APC’s strong home base)
4. Ovia North East (Registered voters 143,009; PVCs collected 113,167 (APC projected to triumph )
5. Ovia South West (Registered voters 96,409; PVCs collected 77,468 (APC projected to lead)
6. Uhunmwonde (Registered voters 74,529; PVCs collected 57,290( Neck and-Neck)
7. Egor (Registered voters 219,832; PVCs collected 158,817(PDP projected to lead)
Conclusion
The New Diplomat projections are based on independent, scientific and professional field data and poll survey across the 18 LGAs in Edo State. Going by the projections arising from our findings, both the PDP and APC are equally matched in various LGAs the South Senatorial zone. Thus in the South it’s 50-50. Both candidates are projected to run a neck-and-neck race in the South. However, the dynamics in the Central and North are graphically different. While the PDP is projected to lead with about 53% to 42% over the APC in the Central Senatorial zone, the case is not so in the North where the APC is projected to lead with a massive 80% to PDP’s 19% potential voters preference.
+NB: The New Diplomat’s Poll Tracking team polled , tracked, aggregated and collated all field data from across all the 18 LGAs in Edo State. This include officially released number of registered voters by INEC, population figures by both NPC and NBS, voting and population strength of various LGAs, etc. Our Poll Tracking Team then developed a Hybrid Poll tracking methodology that combined different survey methods including field questionnaire, data analysis, random sampling of eligible political figures views, potential voters preferences, focus group interviews, etc to arrive at our estimated verdict. These are projections which we customarily carry. For instance, shortly before last year’s Bayelsa’s governorship election, our poll and survey team projected APC’s triumph over PDP with 5 LGAs win to PDP’s 2 while 1(Yenegoa) was estimated to be too-close-to call. At the end, our projections were 97% accurate with a 1% level of improbability based on the outcome of the election.
