Trump’s 14% Tariff ‘II Wreck US-Nigeria”s N31.1 trillion Trade, Oil Revenues to Plummet, Say Experts

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By Abiola Olawale

The recent 14% tariff imposed on Nigeria’s exports to the United States of America by US President Donald Trump has triggered massive reactions from top Nigerian diplomats, economists and analysts.

Recall that Trump had on Wednesday unveiled a sweeping tariff policy, dubbed “Liberation Day,” imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports entering the United States, with additional “reciprocal tariffs” targeting specific nations.

Consequently, exports from Nigeria to the US will attract a 14% tariff compared to the 27% that the US government claims it receives from Nigeria. The tariff is set to take effect on April 9, 2025.

This comes as Nigeria relies heavily on exports like crude oil, petroleum gas, and nitrogen-based fertilizers to the U.S., according to data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the NBS report, Nigeria’s trade with the United States totalled N31.1 trillion between 2015 and 2024 (10 years).

The NBS data revealed that total imports within this period were N16.4 trillion or 8.7% of Nigeria’s global exports. In 2024, these exports generated approximately N931 billion in revenue, according to data from the NBS.

The tariffs also come just as the U.S. began importing jet fuel from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery, with six vessels carrying 1.7 million barrels last month.

However, with the new 14% tariffs, many experts including diplomats, economists and trade analysts have raised fear that it would negatively affect this income stream by increasing costs for American buyers, potentially wrecking demand for Nigerian goods.

In this regard, economists warn that this could shrink Nigeria’s export competitiveness, particularly in the oil sector, which forms the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, potentially Plummeting oil revenues.

The immediate fallout could be a reduction in foreign exchange earnings, putting further massive pressures on the already fragile and disincentivized naira.

According to analysts, with inflation and living costs already hitting thecroof top, a weakened, decapitated naira might escalate economic challenges for everyday Nigerians.

Job losses in the export-dependent sectors like oil and agriculture are also a looming concern, as businesses would likely adjust to shrinking U.S. demand.

Similarly, in the midst of this development, Nigerian experts in International Affairs and Diplomacy have warned against further delay in the appointment of substantive Ambassadors and High Commissioners who should be deployed to various countries to commence serious bilateral engagementsvon behalf of Nigeria, to help stem the tide of isolation and dire economic consequences for Nigeria.

The retired diplomats who expressed grave concern that the continued failure of President Bola Tinubu to appoint substantive heads of Nigeria’s diplomatic missions- ambassadors and high commissioners, two years after they were recalled, stressed times like this ” it is important to have your principal envoys in various host countries including the US to engage, negotiate on behalf of Nigeria.”

A former permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and one time Nigerian Ambassador to Switzerland/Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva, Ambassador Martin Uhomoibhi, who spoke with the press on the subject matter, said: “It might not be too good to leave the foreign missions vacant for long because of the serious implications it might have regarding how the nation is rated within the comity of nations.”

He added: “If our diplomacy must achieve the desired results, then the earlier the substantive ambassadors are appointed to replace the ones that have been recalled.”

Similarly, another erstwhile permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and one time Nigerian Ambassador to Ethiopia and the African Union, Ambassador Paul Bulus Lolo, stated that the delay in appointing the substantive heads of the missions is unusual and has serious negative consequences for Nigeria.

He said: “I do not recall any time in Nigeria’s history as an independent country when its embassies and high commissions abroad have been for a long period as now without accredited ambassadors to head them.”

Another user on X (@General_Oluchi) said, “With the increased tariffs, buying food exported from Nigeria is going to be too expensive at the diaspora supermarkets. If the customers can’t afford them, they rot. If exporters can’t sell, they won’t ship. But let’s cheer our master strategist, Donald Trump, for putting Nigeria first. His supporters are reeling in excitement. There’s joy in the streets as farmers celebrate their new American godsent!”

In the same vein, a user of X (@AYANFEØ1), said: “The 14% tariff imposed on Nigerian exports might decrease trade with the U.S., rendering Nigerian products less competitive, which could negatively impact businesses reliant on exports, lower foreign exchange revenues, and possibly result in job cuts within the affected sectors.”

While the Nigerian government is yet to react officially to the development, some world leaders have sharply criticized Trump’s latest round of tariffs, calling them a “major blow” to international trade and economic stability.

In a related development, the South African presidency, in a statement, has condemned the new tariffs as “punitive”, saying they could “serve as a barrier to trade and shared prosperity”.

“We now have to look amongst ourselves and say, within the customs union in southern Africa… how we’re going to respond to these issues,” South Africa’s Trade Minister Parks Tau say.

Also, Lesotho has said it will send a government delegation to the United States to plead its case after Washington imposed 50pc tariffs on its imports, the highest for a single nation.

“We need to urgently travel to the US to engage with its executives and plead our case,” trade minister Mokhethi Shelile told reporters.

He added: “My biggest concern was the immediate closure of factories and job losses.”

Similarly, the International Trade Union Confederation has condemned the Trump administration’s new trade tariffs, warning that the policies could spark a global trade war, lead to job losses, and increase consumer prices.

The global labour organisation condemned the move, describing it as a reckless economic manoeuvre that will disproportionately harm workers while benefiting corporate elites.

In a statement released on Thursday, ITUC reaffirmed that international trade should promote social justice, equitable economic growth, and the creation of decent jobs with fair wages and strong labour rights.

However, it warned that the U.S. government’s weaponisation of tariffs would have the opposite effect, exacerbating economic inequality and destabilising global markets.

ITUC’s General Secretary, Luc Triangle, said, “These tariffs are not part of any serious plan to support working people.

“The Trump Administration has launched a trade war that will put workers’ jobs and livelihoods at stake. It will also lead to price increases, for which workers and consumers will bear the costs.”

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