By Abiola Olawale
The English Premier League (EPL) is reaching a fever pitch as the 2024-25 season nears its climax, with the race for UEFA Champions League qualification tighter than ever.
With only five automatic spots available for the 2025-26 Champions League, heavyweights Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle United, and others are locked in a fierce battle to secure a coveted top-five finish.
As of May 15, 2025, the Premier League’s top-five race is a nail-biter, with just four points separating third-placed Newcastle United from seventh-placed Nottingham Forest.
Liverpool have already clinched the title and a Champions League berth, while second-placed Arsenal need just one more point to confirm their spot.
This leaves three automatic Champions League places up for grabs, with Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in contention.
Newcastle United, currently third, are in pole position with a 95% chance of securing a top-five finish, according to Opta’s supercomputer.
Their recent 2-0 victory over Chelsea, powered by goals from Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães, has bolstered their chances.
Eddie Howe’s side have been unstoppable, winning 19 of their last 25 matches across all competitions, including the Carabao Cup final against Liverpool.
However, Newcastle face a challenging run-in, with fixtures against Arsenal (away) and Everton (home).
Manchester City, sitting fourth with 64 points, have rediscovered their winning streak with four straight wins before a surprise 0-0 draw against Southampton.
City’s remaining fixtures include Bournemouth (home) and Fulham (away), offering opportunities to solidify their position.
Chelsea is currently fifth with 63 points. Despite a 56% chance of a top-five finish, their inconsistent form has raised concerns.
Chelsea will have to win Manchester United (home) and Nottingham Forest (away) to have any chance of finishing in the top five.
Also, Chelsea’s potential trump card is the UEFA Conference League, where they are favourites to win. A victory in the final against Real Betis would secure a Europa League spot, but a top-five finish remains their priority to return to the Champions League after two seasons away.
Aston Villa (sixth, 63 points) and Nottingham Forest (seventh, 62 points) are still in the hunt, with 40% and 18% chances of a top-five finish, respectively. Villa’s recent 1-0 win over Bournemouth keeps them in contention, while Forest’s draw against Leicester has dented their momentum.
Both teams are guaranteed European football next season, but a Champions League spot would be a historic achievement.
Villa faces Tottenham and Manchester United in their final games, while Forest’s season concludes with a potential decider against Chelsea.
