By Abiola Olawale
The ongoing 2024 general election in the United Kingdom has led to widespread predictions that the ruling Conservative Party is poised to face significant electoral defeat.
Various public opinion surveys have projected that the incumbency of five consecutive prime ministers spanning 14 years may soon come to an end.
The Labour Party, a centre-left political party that has emphasized the pursuit of “change,” is anticipated to make significant gains in the ongoing election.
The New Diplomat reports that on May 6, 2010, the Conservative Party secured victory in the general election, marking the end of Labour’s consecutive wins.
Subsequently, David Cameron assumed the role of Prime Minister, inaugurating a period of Conservative governance in the United Kingdom.
However, in a trend that has persisted for over two years, public opinion surveys in the United Kingdom have consistently projected and predicted that the Conservative Party is on track for a substantial defeat in the ongoing 2024 general election.
Several opinion polls have also forecasted that the incumbent Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak will likely lose his job, with the Labour Party’s leader, Keir Starmer, setting his foot into No 10, the official residence and office of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
The New Diplomat in this report highlights some of the emerging dynamics that may pose an obstacle for the Conservative party in the ongoing general election;
* Britain’s exit from the European Union, which Sunak supported, has been a major bad policy under the Conservative’s Rule. According to one analysis, leaving the trading bloc has cost the U.K. about 5.5% of its economic output. This, to many, has been terrific.
The call for Britain’s exit from the European Union began with a Brexit Referendum during the tenure of Cameron. He was succeeded in office by Theresa May, who put together a Brexit deal but stepped down before the deal could be consummated. Johnson in his 2019 campaign promised to “Get Brexit Done,” and the country left in January 2020.
* The scandal-plagued administration of Johnson, succeeded by the widely criticized 44-day term of fellow Conservative Liz Truss, is also said to have contributed to the party’s challenges, woes and difficulties.
On March 23, nearly two months after the first confirmed case in the UK, Johnson ordered an unprecedented national lockdown, with people ordered to stay at home, bringing economic activity to a painful and an unprecedented halt.
As the country gradually emerged from the pandemic, Johnson found himself increasingly embroiled in scandal, including claims that he had secretly arranged for Tory donors to pay for a lavish refurbishment of his Downing Street flat.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock had to resign unceremoniously after a CCTV footage was leaked to the press showing him cavorting in his office with his mistress in a scene seen as a total violation of social distancing guidelines.
Most damaging however was the emergence of reports of staff holding drinking parties – some attended by Mr Johnson himself – in apparent breach of the government’s lockdown regulations, protocols and rules.
Recall also that in 2022, reports emerged that PM Johnson had been warned about the conduct of deputy chief whip Chris Pincher – who was accused of indecently assaulting two men in the Carlton Club – before he appointed him to the post, it was a scandal too many for many to contend with.
* Also, under the Conservative’s rule, the living standards are being squeezed. The gap between the very rich and the rest has continued to widen, according to recent data. Thus, there is growing widespread perception that public services are not just struggling but are on the verge of collapse.
Similarly, there is general belief that living standards have dropped dramatically in the UK, with real household disposable income falling 0.9% — the first parliamentary term in history that has left many people worse off than before, according to the economic think tank the Resolution Foundation.
* Many voters are angry with hospitals’ performance, arguably the worst in the National Health Service’s history, prisons at breaking point and multiple local governments — including the city of Birmingham, with 1.1 million people — that ran out of money and declared bankruptcy.
* The Labour Party’s leader, Keir Starmer, tipped to become the next prime minister, has been campaigning vigorously, capitalising on the woes, challenges and set backs of the Conservatives.
His campaign released a “manifesto” laying out clearly some high points of his government’s plans, including cutting hospital wait times, ushering in a greener economy and improving the U.K.’s post-Brexit trade deals with the European Union.
The Liberal Democrats committed to reaching Net Zero by 2045, recognising non-binary gender identities and scrapping the Rwanda scheme. Labour said they would repeal the Rwanda bill and impose VAT on private school fees.
