Edo Guber: How Obaseki, Ize-Iyamu Rank 18 LGAs

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Less than two weeks to the governorship election in Edo State, the two major contenders in the race, Mr. Godwin Obaseki of the All Progressives Congress, APC. and Mr. Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, are putting in all within they’ve got to secure victory at the poll.  Obviously, the stakes are high and for the stakeholders from both sides of the divide, September 10,  promises to be decisive.

  Expectedly, as the campaigns draw to a close, they are getting rougher and dirtier and there are indications that issues are being sacrificed for personality attacks much the same way as is currently being witnessed between Mrs. Clinton and Donald Trump in the U.S. Presidential Campaigns.  But it is hoped that the leaders on both sides would be able to live up to their responsibility so that these verbal attacks would not degenerate to violence before, during and after the election.

  Interestingly however, the campaigns have also been characterized, as it were, by cross-carpeting of party members and potential voters from either side.  And this phenomenon tends to render bookmakers’ permutations very difficult as to which side will sail to victory at the end of the day.  The New Diplomat crew has taken time to analyze and update the positions of the two parties, local government area by local government area, in the three senatorial districts of the state.

 

EDO NORTH SENATORIAL DISTRICT

Godwin Obaseki’s Strengths

  Edo North Senatorial District comprises six local government areas namely, Etsako East, Etsako West, Etsako Central, Akoko Edo, Owan East and Owan West.  It is the home base of the outgoing governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole who is currently leading the campaign train of the APC candidate, Obaseki.  Other APC chieftains solidly behind Obaseki include his running mate, Mr. Phillip Shuaibu; the present Secretary to the State government, Prof. Julius Ihonvbere; Sen. Francis Alimikhena; Hon. Abdul Oroh; Hon. Pally Iriase and Hon. Peter Akpatason among others.

  In the six councils in this senatorial district, the APC has established a strong presence because Oshiomhole is from there.  The governor is definitely determined to ensure that the APC sweeps all the six councils with a 100 percent win come September 10. The choice of one of their sons as the running mate to the governor is also an added boost and encouragement for the people to cast their votes for the APC, not to talk of the University of Education Oshiomhole has established in the area.

  It was Oshiomhole’s huge impact on the lives of the people of the senatorial district that prompted the six traditional rulers in the senatorial district, led by the Otaru of Auchi, Alhaji Aliru Momoh (Ikelebe III), to endorse Obaseki’s candidacy. The royal fathers went further to jointly donate an undisclosed cash sum to support Obaseki’s campaign. Also, the recent decamping of the PDP chairman, in ward 11 of Etsako West Local Government Area of the state, Chief Sunday Edehor, who is from the same ward with Obaseki’s running mate, Shuaibu is an added boost to APC’s chances in the area.

 Oshiomhole’s success in reconciling the top APC chieftains in Edo North, especially Odubu’s supporters in the area is seen as another source of strength for Obaseki’s campaign in the area.  The New Diplomat gathered that the combined forces of the APC chieftains in Edo North have the capability of crushing every opposition in terms of votes.  As commented by one of the chieftains, “A hundred percent victory in Edo North for APC in September 10 is realistically achievable.”

 

Obaseki’s Weaknesses

  Although Oshiomhole’s administration has been acknowledged to have spread development evenly to the entire Edo North Senatorial district, there are pockets of grudges from some local government areas where the governor has been accused of neglect in siting of developmental infrastructure and appointments. The New Diplomat’s investigation reveals that people of Akoko-Edo and the two Owan councils are grudging over unfulfilled promises by Oshiomhole to address the issue of some major link roads to their areas and his failure to appoint  Obaseki’s running mate from their areas.  There are also complaints that the dilapidated and abandoned School of Agriculture, Agenebode which Oshiomhole promised to resuscitate has remained moribund.  The Muslim communities in these three areas, The New Diplomat discovered, have continued to complain that Oshiomhole failed to appoint one of their own as running mate to the governor. 

  In Owan West Local Government Area, the people of Okpuje-Ilueha are not particularly happy with the outgoing government of Oshiomhole which they accused of reneging on its promise in 2007 to construct the only road linking the area to Uzebba through which they evacuate their farm produce and they have vowed not to cast their votes on September 10 if the road was not done.

  Whether or not these pockets of grudges could be peacefully addressed by Obaseki before the election or whether their votes may not be too significant to cause any upset is not very clear for now.

 

Ize-Iyamu’s Strengths

 The strength of the PDP and indeed, Pastor Ize-Iyamu in Edo North, lies in some key stakeholders whose political experience are as old as the current democratic dispensation in the country.  These include the state PDP chairman, Chief Dan Orbih; Sen. Yisa Braimoh, Chief Mike Ogiadomhe, Col. Tunde Akogun (Rtd), Chief Raymond Dokpesi, Alh. Kassitu Ozeto among others.  Although this zone appears to be the traditional stronghold of the APC  because  Oshiomhole is from there, these party stalwarts have been on ground and can boast of great grassroots followers who remain very loyal to their cause.

  There are political calculations that the PDP may not be able to make any meaningful impact in areas like Akoko-Edo and the three Etsako councils. But in the two Owan council areas, the PDP is capitalizing on a seemingly deep-rooted grievance by the voting population over neglect by the outgoing administration of Oshiomhole.  They have chosen to boycott the September 10 governorship election or embark on protest voting.   Even in Etsako East Local Government Area, the PDP has exploited some issues such as the neglect of the College of Agriculture in Agenebode and lack of medical centre in the council headquarters.  The party’s flag-bearer, Iyamu has promised the people that his government would renovate the college and establish health centres.  The party’s success in these areas will depend on how well the party henchmen from that area could mobilize the voters to their side. Analysts strongly believe that the PDP may spring a surprise and capture more than the minimum required votes.

 

Ize-Iyamu’s Weaknesses

  Aside the APC heavyweights that are on ground in Edo North, including Oshiomhole, the senatorial district has a heavy presence of development attracted to it by the governor.  The presence of good network of roads and renovation of schools are among some of the infrastructure which show the presence of government in the area.  So also is the effort of government to re-open the Okpella cement factory to create employment.  Also, the picking of Shuaibu as running mate to Obaseki acts as another impetus to sway majority of voters in that zone the way of the APC.  And this may crush any opposition which the PDP may attempt to muster in the area. Another factor that would work against the PDP in Edo North is that since the creation of the state, they have not produced a governor and the 16years of PDP in the state did not bring any development to the area.

 

EDO CENTRAL SENATORIAL DISTRICT

Obaseki’s Strengths

  There are five councils in this district namely, Esan Central, Esan North-East, Esan South-East, Esan West and Igueben.  The zone constitutes about 18 percent of the entire population of the state.   Prominent chieftains of the APC in this zone include the state APC chairman, Mr. Anslem Ajezua; the Speaker of the Edo State House of Assembly, Hon. Justin Okonoboh; Mr. Mike Inegbineki, Mr. Victor Eboigbe, Hon. Victor Edoror, Hon. Sam Oboh, Prof. Osunbor, Hon. Patrick Ikhariale and Comrade Peter Esele among others.

  Although Edo Central appears to be the traditional home of the PDP in the state, the APC and Obaseki would rely heavily on the infrastructural development which Oshiomhole brought to  the area, especially in the area of roads, schools renovation and health care.  For instance, it is believed that the impact of the development of Oshiomhole’s administration is evident in major towns and villages like Ewu, Irua, Ubiaja, Ekpoma, Uromi among others.  The people are quick to point to the construction of Isua-Uzunema road, the Irua-Usugbenu-Ujogba road, the Ewhohimi-Ewatto-Ohordua-Okhesan road, Igueben-Udo road, Ewohimi-Agadagba among others.

  If the achievements of Oshiomhole’s administration are to be taken into consideration by the people of Edo Central, then it is expected that they will cast their votes for the APC and Obaseki. As the zero hour of election draws near, the APC campaign machinery keeps drumming into the ears of the voters the accomplishment of the party in Edo Central. 

 

Obaseki’s  Weaknesses

APC’s weakness may result from the combined forces of seasoned PDP chieftains in the area.  For instance, the former national PDP Board of Trustees chairman, Chief Tony Anenih; Chief Tom Ikimi, Sen. Odon Ugbesia, the running mate to Ize-Iyamu, Hon. John Yakubu; former Minister of Works, Mr. Mike Onolememen among others are ready to neutralize the APC and Oshiomhole machinery in the zone.  Also, the people of Edo Central, having lost the chance of producing the governor this time around were expecting the position of the deputy.  And so, they were aggrieved when Oshiomhole used his power to deny them of that position. 

 

 

Ize-Iyamu’s Strength

  As has been outlined above, the PDP in the state seems to have its base in this district.  And it is with that machinery they were able to produce two out of the three senators in the state in the 2015 election.  The party’s heavyweights at the moment appear to have forged a stronger unity to ensure the Esan block votes are secured for the PDP.  Speaking at the flag-off of Pastor Ize-Iyamu’s campaign in Benin City about two months ago, Chief Tom Ikimi declared that the machinery with which they enthroned Oshiomhole seven years ago has been re-oiled to retake power back to the PDP.  And so, he added, even if it is going to be difficult to capture the entire state for the PDP, they will ensure Edo Central’s votes are safe in their kitty.

 

Ize-Iyamu’s Weakness

  What may work against PDP/Ize-Iyamu in Edo Central Senatorial district is the seemingly clear differences in infrastructural development of the area between the pre-Oshiomhole administration and the present state of development.  And this has formed the basis of the APC campaign in the area.  The emphasis of APC has been that the eight years of the PDP administration failed to impact positively on the lives of the Esan-speaking people.  It is also evident that the major roads in Uromi, the home of the PDP leader, Chief Tony Anenih, were constructed by Oshiomhole’s administration.  These structures are likely to work against PDP.

 

EDO SOUTH SENATORIAL DISTRICT

  Edo South Senatorial District promises to be the battle ground where the political fire-power of the APC and PDP would be put to test.  First, the zone which comprises seven local government areas commands nearly sixty percent of the entire population of the state.  The local government areas include: Oredo, Orhionmwom, Ikpoba-Okha, Egor, Uhunmwonde, Ovia North-East and Ovia South-West.  And of these seven, Oredo controls the highest votes followed by Orhionmwon.

 

Obaseki’s Strengths

  APC/Obaseki’s structure in Edo South is built around the national chairman of the party, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun; the Director-General of Obaseki Campaign Organization, Mr. Osarodion Ogie; former governorship aspirant and deputy governor, Mr. Pius Odubu; Hon. Razaq Belo-Osagie, Hon. Osifo Washington and a host of other party leaders and chieftains.    Besides the fact that Obaseki is from Oredo Local Government Area, Oshiomhole’s influence in Benin City, the State capital, is overwhelming and this accounts for the strength of the party in the area.  Analysts believe that APC will capture council with over seventy percent clear win. 

  Other councils that will fall to APC in Edo South may include Ikpoba-Okha where Ogie hails from and Uhunmwonde Local Government Area which is a traditional APC stronghold.  Until recently, Egor council was a PDP stronghold but if the recent decamping of a sizable number of PDP members in the area to APC is anything to go by, Egor might just be one of the battle grounds where the two parties will test their superiority at the poll.

  Orhionmwon comes next in voting size to Oredo Local Government Area.  Ize-Iyamu, hails from here.  So, also does the former deputy governor, Pius Odubu, who contested the APC governorship primary with Obaseki.  He is fully back into the party and at the forefront of the campaign.  He is a grassroots mobilizer and a leader with a large follower.  His structure in Orhionmwon Local Government Area is capable of giving PDP a run for its money.  Therefore, Orhionmwon may be yet another tough battle ground for the two parties.

 

Obaseki’s Weaknesses

  Ovia North-East and Ovia South-West are known to be traditional homes of PDP being the homestead of Esama of Benin, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion.  His presence at Ize-Iyamu’s Campaign flag-off in Benin City about two months ago clearly indicates that he is fully involved in the bid to reclaim the governorship of the state for the PDP.  Observers believe that the two councils would go to PDP. 

 

Ize-Iyamu’s Strengths

  The PDP heavyweights in Edo South include Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, Chief Lucky Igbinedion, Sen. Matthew Urhoghide, Sen. Daisy Danjuma, Sen. Roland Owie, Clement Edo-Osagie among others. 

  It has been predicted that Orhionmwon Local Government Area and the two Ovia councils may be captured by the PDP.  However, observers also believed that with the presence of Odubu structure in Orhionmwon, APC would not allow it go to the PDP.  In the same vein, the PDP structure in Edo South would not fold its arm in Oredo Local Government Area to allow APC sweep it hundred percent.  Egor Local Government Area is predicted to be fifty-fifty for the two parties.

 

Ize-Iyamu’s Weaknesses

Analysts see Ikpoba-Okha, Uhunmwonde and most part of Oredo Local Government Areas being captured by Obaseki.  With the recent massive defection of PDP members to APC in Egor Local Government Area, Ize-Iyamu seems to be losing some ground in Edo South. But this may be compensated with the two Ovia Local Government Areas which may be delivered wholesale by the Igbinedions.   Also, the recent defection of Sen. Ehigie Uzamere, a chieftain of the PDP to the APC in Edo South is capable of affecting the fortunes of Ize-Iyamu in the zone.

  But in summary, Edo South generally appears to be the battle ground that will determine the winner of the September poll.

Hamilton Nwosa
Hamilton Nwosa
Hamilton Nwosa is an experienced, and committed communication, business, administrative, data and research specialist . His deep knowledge of the intersection between communication, business, data, and journalism are quite profound. His passion for professional excellence remains the guiding principle of his work, and in the course of his career spanning sectors such as administration, tourism, business management, communication and journalism, Hamilton has won key awards. He is a delightful writer, researcher and data analyst. He loves team-work, problem-solving, organizational management, communication strategy, and enjoys travelling. He can be reached at: hamilton_68@yahoo.com

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