By Hamilton Nwosa (Head, The New Diplomat’s Polling, Research and Data Desk)
It is no longer news that incumbent Governor of Edo state, Mr Godwin Obaseki won last Saturday, September 19 governorship election following his declaration as the winner of the election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
In the fiercely contested poll, Governor Obaseki who was the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), polled a total of 307,955 votes to beat his main challenger, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled a total of 223,619 votes.
However, it would be recalled that Governor Obaseki won his first election which held in 2016 with the support of his now estranged political godfather, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the immediate past governor of Edo state and a former National chairman of the ruling APC.
In the 2020 gubernatorial contest, both Obaseki and his main rival, Ize-Iyamu switched parties in a somewhat symbolic reversal of roles, making Obaseki run on PDP while Ize-Iyamu contested on the platform of APC. According to some, the outcome of the election went slightly against several verdicts by various opinion polls and projections. How did voters arrive at preferences? What were the factors that aided Obaseki’s victory?
The New Diplomat’s team led by Hamilton Nwosa, Head polling, research and data collation desk went to town to sample peoples views and opinion. Here are 5 factors that the preponderance of opinions attribute or cite as the dynamics that propelled voters in Edo state to support Obaseki and ultimately aided his victory.
- Tinubu’s Video and Podcast: Many of those sampled say an audio and virtual broadcast released by a former governor of Lagos State and one of the national leaders of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the eve of the Edo governorship election calling on Edo state voters to vote against Obaseki was ill-timed. In that Video, Tinubu also introduced himself as a national leader of all democrats, among other things. Many said the video angered many voters who expressed concerns that Tinubu’s influence over Lagos state politics was likely to be extended to Edo state should the APC win the election. Obaseki’s supporters reportedly leveraged upon this to massive advantage, campaigning that “Edo Is Not Lagos.” Some believe that this video also angered some key figures including some die-hard APC members who felt “Tinubu was trying to claim credit if APC wins, so let’s cut him to size now…”
- APC’s Internal Differences And Intrigues: According to a local reporter with one of the national newspapers in Benin-City, part of the reasons why APC’s candidate lost the election was that the party didn’t put up a united front as some political leaders allegedly regarded the battle for Edo governorship seat as “that of Oshiomhole and Tinubu to contend with.” Gabriel Egharevba, a resident of Benin told The New Diplomat that this may have been premised on intrigues within APC over 2023 presidential race. He said: “There is a bloc that is against Tinubu and Oshiomhole and they didn’t want the APC candidate to win because that would probably give Tinubu an edge in the jostle for 2023. This has nothing to do with Pastor Ize-Iyamu at all. Oshiomhole on his part, also didn’t help matters. He should have reached out to that group which also has some APC serving governors and woo them over to his side by assuring them that their political stakes are guaranteed; after-all politics is mainly about interest.” Unconfirmed reports say this bloc provided propelling force for Obaseki’s camp. This was unlike the case in PDP where Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State led a team of PDP governors, and provided support for Obaseki.
- Oshiomhole’s Factor: Some persons interviewed from the South Senatorial zone which Governor Obaseki won with a wide margin, are of the view that Oshiomhole’s brand didn’t quite resonate well with voters in the South as Ize-Iyamu’s voice and presence was not loudly audible and visible enough here. According to them, this fuelled all types of suspicion, and there were no sufficient assurances given to cosmopolitan residents and indigenes in the South Senatorial zone that Oshiomhole was not likely going to dominate an Ize-Iymau’s government should the APC win. Another element that reportedly worked against the APC’s candidate appears to be the fact that the Obaseki camp either intentionally or unknowingly framed the narrative around an Obaseki vs Oshiomhole war. Gabriel (a local reporter in Benin City) said: “Perhaps Oshiomhole should have concentrated on Edo North and allow Ize-Iyamu and APC bigwigs from Edo South to be the face and voice of their campaign in the Southern Senatorial zone. That way, the masses and elite here wouldn’t have seen it as an Obaseki-Oshiomhole battle.”
- Technology, Innovation and Digital Media: Another point some people claimed may have aided Obaseki’s victory was that he had a better funded and a better organized team with specialty in technology, Innovation and digital media. According to Austin (a professional in Benin who supported APC’s Ize-Iyamu): “ even though I was strongly for APC, and I am still APC, I must say the Governor’s side had a better organized social media and technology team that deployed the power of technology and innovation to great advantage.”
- Obaseki’s “Perceived” Performance: One voter, an IT expert who has earned a certificate in Google Analytics said he voted for Obaseki because he perceives him as a professional with the right skill-set to provide direction for Edo State at this time. He said: “ In 2016, I voted for PDP then. The Candidate was Pastor(Pastor Ize-Iyamu). That was because I believed that the candidate was on ground, he knows Edo state, he has capacity to perform and that it was therefore risky to experiment with someone like Obaseki who was just coming from Lagos. So I voted against Obaseki in 2016. But today, I am Google certified and I now work as an IT practitioner in Benin City. I believe the enabling environment is somewhat opening up and he is building on Comrade Oshiomhole’s giant strides in Edo state. Oshiomhole did a very good job in Edo state as governor. Whether you like Oshiomhole or not, you can’t take it from him that his achievements have not been matched .. I believe that it is the foundation that Oshiomhole laid that Obaseki is leveraging on. I am an Oshiomhole fan but I also believe the governor should be allowed to continue with how he is leveraging on that Oshiomhole legacy to the benefit of entrepreneurs like us…”
