.Roller-Coaster Battle Signals Stormy War Ahead!
By Hamilton Nwosa (Head, The New Diplomat Poll Trackers)
With barely eight months to next year’s Edo State governorship election, current political plots in Edo have triggered a full-blown political combat among the various gubernatorial gladiators. Cresting on the crisis between Governor Godwin Obaseki, the incumbent governor of Edo State and his estranged political mentor, national chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, many political players in the State now see it as an opportunity, not as a blow, for the APC to re-define itself and present itself to the Edo people as a party that respects the choices of the grassroots, and indeed the electorate.
To many, this prospect might radically reconfigure the 2016 electoral map of Edo State which saw the APC winning the governorship as Mr Obaseki emerged as governor because of Oshiomhole’s political resilience and erudition, not in-spite of him. Defying political predictions that Obaseki, as a first class technocrat, and not a conventional politician who would suffer fools gladly, his candidature would hit a brick wall among the Edo political class, Oshiomhole shattered those notations!
But that was then! Things have fallen apart. The late venerable Chinua Achebe, in his classic, Things Fall Apart appeared to have captured this quite crisply: “ the falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the central can longer hold; mere anarchy is loosed upon the world.” Some political analysts assert that it is this roller-coaster dynamics that have precipitated so much intrigues, plots and counter schemes in the battle for Edo Government House come 2020. Last week, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, a former Edo State Secretary to Government, lawyer and foundation vice-chairman (South-South) of Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) which merged with CPC to form APC, crossed over to the APC from PDP.
To keen followers of Edo politics, Ize-Iyamu who is regarded as a highly impregnable and unassailable political fortress with strong organizational prowess and rectitude’s entry into the APC has altered the political mechanics of Edo 2020! Both Governor Obaseki and Pastor Ize-Iyamu hail from Edo South, the Senatorial zone with about 58% of the State’s projected voters demographics strength. In fact, the projected voting strength of the other two- Senatorial zones-North (25%) and Central (17% )- when polled together do not seem to equal or rival the South in terms of statistical voting power! However, 
the voting strength of Edo South is largely cosmopolitan made up of ethnic diversity just like Lagos State. And Edo State is quite large in terms of landmass (about 17,802 square kilometers). Thus the smallest Senatorial zone (Edo Central ) is almost the size of the entire Lagos State in terms of landmass.
Pastor Ize-Iyamu is not alone in the quest to wrest power from Obaseki, given the seeming irreconcilable differences that have erupted between the governor and his immediate predecessor and political leader, Oshiomhole. Both Oshiomhole and Obaseki parted ways on a sour political note that has fractured the APC in Edo State. Within the APC, there is also Major-General Charles Arhiavbere, a former governorship aspirant, Engr Chris Ogiemwonyi, a former minister of State for Works and Mr Henry Idahagbon, a former Edo State Attorney- General and Commissioner for Justice, who is leading Edo Peoples Movement (EPM). The later two are speculated to likely dark-horses. While in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the list is said to include Senator Matthew Urhoghide, chairman Senate Committee of Public Accounts, Mr Kenneth Imasuangbon, alias “the rice man”, Arch Mike Onolememen, a former Minister of Works, Hon. Omorogie Ogbeide-Ihama, a young politician from Oredo and Gideon Ikhine. But the chances of Imasuangban, Ikhine and others from central senatorial zone appear bleak because the current dynamics favour only aspirants from Edo South. Urhoghide, a two-term senator is said to be generally admired by many across political divide. Some say he is perceived as a likely dark horse in the political chess battle. The consequence: The battle for 2020 governorship has fiercely commenced, signaling a stormy political contest ahead. But how is the APC and PDP ranking in the three senatorial zones?
The population setting in the 18 LGAs as captured in the Senatorial demographics are as follows:
Edo Central Senatorial Zone (PDP Stronghold)
1. Esan Central (137,900)
2. Esan North-East (159,800)
3. Esan South East(217,900)
4. Esan West(167,300)
5. Igueben (92,100)
Edo North Senatorial Zone (APC Stronghold)
1. Akoko-Edo(342,600)
2. Etsako Central(123,400)
3. Etsako East(193,000)
4. Etsako West(260,700)
5. Owan East(202,600)
6. Owan West(129,800)
Edo South Senatorial Zone ( PDP, APC in Battle for Supremacy; Both parties have 2 House of Reps each but PDP has the Senatorial seat!)
1. Ikpoba-Okha (487,400)
2. Oredo(490,600)
3. Orhionmwon(241,00)
4. Ovia North East(203,500)
5. Ovia South West(180,900)
6. Uhunmwonde(159,500)
7. Egor(445,800)
Total projected population figures: 4,235,600
NB: population figures are based on National Population Commission (NPC) figures and the National Bureau of Statistics sourced from their data( NPC 2016). Note also that in the last State House of Assembly elections, the APC dusted the PDP by winning virtually all the seats!
The Current Key Front-Runners…
Gov Godwin Obaseki (APC)
Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu(APC)
Senator Matthew Urhoghide(PDP)
The Political dynamics…
But most central in the battle for supremacy, is the political and electoral status of the gubernatorial gladiators. Said an insider: “Whoever wins Edo South, will eventually win the governorship elections. The political sentiments are very strong today. Don’t forget the Palace as a factor. If election is held today, it would definitely be very tough, very competitive but there is no way Oshiomhole will not deliver Edo North fully to anyone he supports. Edo North controls 25% of the voting population. He still holds the structure in Edo North. Yes the deputy governor is there, Philip, but who is really Philip when you are talking of people like Alimikhena, Pally Iriase, Akpason, Oroh, etc in Edo North?”
The New Diplomat’s checks indicate that the narrative surrounding the return of Pastor Ize-Iyamu has been likened to the recall of a populist Samuel Ogbemudia who was brought from military retirement in 1983 and romped by political forces to run against incumbent Governor Ambrose Ali of the old Bendel State. Ize-Iyamu is said to be awesomely popular with grassroots penetration, followership and robust organizational network. However, unlike Ali, analysts say Governor Obaseki would be running for a second term on the basis of APC’s gentleman understanding that the south senatorial zone should govern for eight years just as Oshiomhole from Edo North governed for eight years. Said an insider: “Let me tell you the truth. Obaseki and Oshiomhole would have resolved their political differences long ago. But there are political hawks whose stock-in-trade is to feed fat from their open hostilities. The Obaseki I know is a good natured person but his political loyalists have made things difficult for reconciliation with his political mentor, Comrade Oshiomhole.”
The Edo governorship election would definitely arouse national interest. First, it would be taking place in 2020, a year that serves as a significant political anniversary period in Nigeria’s historic trajectory. By October 1, 2020, Nigeria would be sixty solid years as an independent nation. Coincidentally, a fearless, trail-blazing and audacious nationalist who made history as the first Nigerian to move the historic motion for Nigeria’s independence in 1953, late Chief Anthony Eromosle Enahoro, the Adolor of Uromi, hailed from the present day Edo State. A man of several firsts, late Chief Enahoro, first distinguished himself as a fiery editor at 21 in 1944, Nigeria’s youngest editor ever before venturing into politics in 1950. All eyes would thus be on Edo!
Watch out for The New Diplomat’s field findings! Like our electoral verdict on Bayelsa State, published a month before the November 16 governorship polls, The New Diplomat’s soon to be published verdict based on field findings, are factual, insightful, accurate and unputdownable! Who wins the APC, PDP primaries! And after that first stage, who eventually is best projected to win the governorship election!
NB: In the coming weeks, as customary, The New Diplomat would be conducting a field survey as we move closer to 2020 Edo governorship polls. The New Diplomat Inc’s Poll Tracking team will aggregate all field data from across all the 18LGAs in Edo State, and officially released polling data by INEC, including number of registered voters, expected voters with PVCs, population figures by both NPC and NBS, voting strength of various LGAs, etc. Our Poll Tracking Team would then develop a Hybrid Poll tracking methodology that would combine different survey methods to arrive at a verdict of which governorship aspirant or candidate is projected to win both their parties primaries and the general elections. The Hybrid approach include sampled respondents, focus groups interviews, coding, field questionnaires, telephone interviews, reputation audit, sampling of voting demographics, etc. Our findings and projections would be published well ahead of the elections!
