By Hamilton Nwosa (Head, The New Diplomat’s business and data tracking desk)
With just about five months to this year’s Edo State governorship election, contemporary political plots in Edo state ought to have triggered a full-blown political war among contending gubernatorial gladiators. However, the ravaging covid-19 pandemic have temporarily put things on hold. Going by the initial time-table released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the governorship polls was scheduled to hold on September 19, this year. But every attention seems focused on containing the deadly virus fueling speculations that the All progressives Party (APC) primaries billed to hold in June, preparatory to the governorship election in September, may likely be re-scheduled or conducted through e-voting processes.
The raging war of words between Governor Godwin Obaseki, the incumbent governor of Edo State and his estranged political mentor, national chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, has also taken a back-seat as allies in both camps have temporarily put their war arsenals on hold.
To many, this period therefore serves as a holiday of sort. It would afford political actors in the State the opportunity of re-examining the political dynamics of Edo State. In fact, analysts believe that the political differences between Obaseki and Oshiomhole offer some prospects that might radically reconfigure the 2016 electoral map of Edo State which saw the APC winning the gubernatorial election as Mr Obaseki emerged as governor because of Oshiomhole’s political resilience, not in-spite of him. According to those who hold this view, Oshiomhole had defied projections by political associates that Obaseki, as a first class technocrat, and not a conventional politician who would suffer fools gladly, his candidature might likely hit a brick wall among the Edo political class. But Oshiomhole’s sturdiness shattered those projections as Obaseki, an erudite technocrat emerged as governor in 2016!
However, experts maintain that times have changed. Apart from the fact that both Obaseki and Oshiomhole have fallen apart, the crowded field that host an array of governorship aspirants within the Edo APC may also not help matters. Apart from Obaseki who would be fighting a tough battle to secure the APC’s ticket to seek re-election, there are Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, a lawyer and strong political war-horse with strong organizational prowess, Engr Chris Ogiemwonyi, a former Minister for State for Works, and Dr Pius Odubu, a former deputy to Comrade Oshiomhole when the later was governor. There is also Major-General Charles Airhiavbere, a former governorship aspirant, and Mr Henry Idahagbon, a former Edo State Attorney- General and Commissioner for Justice, who is leading Edo Peoples Movement (EPM) now called Authentic APC. With this line-up, it is not clear which side Oshiomhole might tilt the political pendulum. There are speculations of possible dark-horses. But analysts predict that unless, serious political maturity is deployed, the intrigues and bitter acrimony that might arise from the selection or election process among Oshiomhole’s loyalists for the governorship ticket of APC, might throw up a rancorous war within the APC that the PDP may latch on in its bid to wrest power from the ruling APC.
Interestingly, the initial dusts over some internal crisis within the PDP last year appear to have died down. But the PDP is not immune to internal tension. In the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the list is said to include Senator Matthew Urhoghide, chairman Senate Committee of Public Accounts, Mr Kenneth Imasuangbon, alias “the rice man”, Arch Mike Onolememen, a former Minister of Works, Hon. Omorogie Ogbeide-Ihama, a young politician from Oredo and Gideon Ikhine. But inside sources reveal that the chances of Imasuangban, Ikhine and others from central senatorial zone appear bleak because the current political currents sit pretty well with only aspirants from Edo South. Urhoghide, a two-term senator is said to be generally admired by many across political parties divide. He is also very likeable, approachable and most accessible. In fact, one analyst from Edo State said: “ Senator Urhoghide is a very likeable personality. He is also seen as an approachable and very easy to reach. In fact, people say, when you call him anytime, he personally takes his calls unlike many arrogant folks who call themselves leaders. He is a good material.” Insiders believe that Urhoghide is a likely dark horse within the PDP. The result: The battle for 2020 governorship which has been temporarily put on hold on account of covid-19 might prove very interesting and stormy in the weeks ahead. But how is the APC and PDP ranking in the three senatorial zones? What are the forces and factors at play? And what are the demographics?
The Demographics…
Edo South Senatorial zone is the largest Senatorial district. It has about 58% of the State’s projected voters demographics strength. In fact, the projected voting strength of the other two- Senatorial zones-North (25%) and Central (17% )- when polled together do not seem to equal South senatorial district in terms of statistical voting capabilities! However, political analysts are quick to explain that the huge voting strength of Edo South is largely cosmopolitan, and it’s made up of diverse ethnic groups just like the case in Lagos State. And Edo State is quite large in terms of landmass (about 17,802 square kilometers). Thus the smallest Senatorial zone (Edo Central ) is almost like the size of the entire Lagos State in terms of landmass.
The population setting in the 18 LGAs as captured in the Senatorial demographics are as follows:
Edo Central Senatorial Zone (PDP Stronghold-17%)
- Esan Central (137,900)
- Esan North-East (159,800)
- Esan South East(217,900)
- Esan West(167,300)
- Igueben (92,100)
Edo North Senatorial Zone (APC Stronghold-25%)
- Akoko-Edo(342,600)
- Etsako Central(123,400)
- Etsako East(193,000)
- Etsako West(260,700)
- Owan East(202,600)
- Owan West(129,800)
Edo South Senatorial Zone ( PDP, APC in Battle for Supremacy; Both parties have 2 House of Reps each but PDP has the Senatorial seat!-58%)
- Ikpoba-Okha (487,400)
- Oredo(490,600)
- Orhionmwon(241,00)
- Ovia North East(203,500)
- Ovia South West(180,900)
- Uhunmwonde(159,500)
- Egor(445,800)
Total projected population figures: 4,235,600
NB: population figures are based on National Population Commission (NPC) figures and the National Bureau of Statistics sourced from their data( NPC 2016). Note also that in the last State House of Assembly elections, the APC dusted the PDP by winning virtually all the seats!
The Current Key Front-line governorship Contenders…
Gov Godwin Obaseki (APC)
*Strength: Incumbency factor and solid technocratic skill- sets
*Weakness: His war against his benefactor, Oshiomhole is seen as a huge deficit
Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu(APC)
*Strength: Strong political war-horse with solid grassroots following
*Weakness: Inconsistent moves from ACN to PDP, and back to APC may work against him
Senator Matthew Urhoghide(PDP)
*Strength: Has goodwill, immense political support across parties and mass popularity
*Weakness: Perceived as too gentle to fight the turbulent Guber battle in Edo
Dr Pius Odubu (APC)
*Strength: Has strong political base coupled with unmatched political experience
*Weakness: Seen as too loyal to Oshiomhole, a factor that may work against him in Edo
Engr Chris Ogiemwonyi (APC)
*Strength: Well organized professional with energy industry experience and goodwill
* Weakness: Seen as too old for the war coupled with being viewed as an outsider in APC
Gen. Charles Airhiavbere(APC)
*Strength: Has deep pocket that can see him through the turbulent financial war
*Weakness: Lacks political base coupled with absence of political structure
Hon Omorogie Ogbeide-Ihama (PDP)
*Strength: Young, dynamic and has great mobilization skills
*Weakness: Seen as lacking the reach and persona for the governorship race
The Political dynamics…
As earlier projected by The New Diplomat, central dynamics in the battle for supremacy, is the electoral status of the gubernatorial gladiators and the real battle for Edo South. An insider confided in The New Diplomat thus : “Whoever wins Edo South will eventually win the governorship elections. The political sentiments are very strong today. …If election is held today, it would definitely be very tough, very competitive but there is no way Oshiomhole will not deliver Edo North fully to anyone he supports full block. Edo North controls 25% of the voting population. He still holds the structure in Edo North. Yes the deputy governor is there, Philip, but who is really Philip when you are talking of people like Pally Iriase, Julius Ihonvbere, Abdul Oroh, Aikhokia, Agba, etc in Edo North? ” But another source countered that Obaseki might similarly win Edo Central, given the relative work he has done in Edo Central, and the political sentiment in” Edo Central that they might stand a better chance of being governor in 2024 if they support Obaseki”. The analyst added: “ It would be a tough contest my brother. Godwin (Governor Godwin Obaseki) has done some work in Edo Central and he may win the votes there given the sentiments of the Esan people. The previous government marginalized Edo Central , a place that produced eminent elder statesman and foremost nationalist like late Chief Anthony Enahoro who fought for Nigeria’s independence. And he would also get votes from Edo South, his home senatorial zone. And the Esans also want to be governor in 2024, that is one issue”.
The New Diplomat’s checks reveal that the race would be tough with a lot of dynamics being thrown up. A top journalist from Edo State confided in The New Diplomat: “Let me tell you the truth. Obaseki and Oshiomhole would have resolved their political differences long ago. Obaseki should have long mend fences with his benefactor, Comrade. Without comrade, Obaseki wouldn’t have won. So he should have just managed the Comrade (Oshiomhole), no matter his shortcomings. No human being is perfect. That is why this election would be tough, the Oshiomhole factor. Oshiomhole is a very strong factor. But you know there are also political hawks whose stock-in-trade is to feed fat from their open hostilities. The Obaseki I know is a good natured person but his political loyalists have made things difficult for reconciliation with his political mentor, Comrade Oshiomhole. Some of Obaseki’s associates are also very, very arrogant and unapproachable. They are like double dealers. They are also making enemies for the governor and at the end, some of them will jump ship and go and mend fences with Oshiomhole when the chips are down. However, I don’t see how APC will not win Edo State. It is up for APC to pick up. Oshiomhole worked very hard to build up APC in the state, so it is for APC to pick up.”
But another school of thought maintains that both APC and PDP are equally matched in Edo State politics with the result that no one party can lay claim to absolute dominance. The analyst cited the example of PDP controlling two Senatorial seats(South and Central) while the APC holds the reigns of government at the State level as governor. ” That is why I am telling you that APC has to be very careful in managing its internal fight so that it does not give chance to PDP to leverage on to attempt to snatch the governorship seat”, an analyst quipped. He added;” That is why I told you earlier that whoever wins Edo South, will ultimately win the governorship. Edo Central is a traditional base of PDP even though Obaseki has made some in-road there, while Edo North is absolutely APC’s chiefdom as Oshiomhole’s own Senatorial base. So the battle ground still remains Edo South with 58% of voting strength.” However, for now, the titanic battle for the soul of Edo State has been temporarily put on hold because of the ravaging impact of covid-19!
NB: In the coming weeks, as customary when Covid-19 has been managed, The New Diplomat would be conducting a field survey as we move closer to September, 2020 Edo governorship polls. The New Diplomat Inc’s Poll Tracking team will aggregate all field data from across all the 18LGAs in Edo State, and officially released polling data by INEC, including number of registered voters, expected voters with PVCs, population figures by both NPC and NBS, voting strength of various LGAs, etc. Our Poll Tracking Team would then develop a Hybrid Poll tracking methodology that would combine different survey methods to arrive at a verdict of which governorship aspirant or candidate is projected to win both their parties primaries and the general elections. The Hybrid approach include sampled respondents, focus groups interviews, coding, field questionnaires, telephone interviews, reputation audit, sampling of voting demographics, etc. Our findings and projections would be published well ahead of the elections!
