- The New Administration will Grapple with Senseless Killings, N77 Trillion Debt Portfolio and 22% Inflation Rate
By Charles Adingupu
In seven days, the All Progressives Congress (APC) President-elect, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu will be inaugurated as Nigeria’s 16th President. For most Nigerians, it would be an epoch making event as it follows one of the most divisive elections in the nation’s history with record litigations; and for Tinubu himself the crowning fulfillment of a lifetime ambition.
But of more concern to students of history, are the much touted legacies left behind by the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, which should have been the spring board that would kick-start the Tinubu government.
Ironically, searching for these fantastic legacies left by the outgoing President, is like searching for a niddle in a haystack.
Needless to say, some of these legacies contributed in no small measure in nearly frustrating the actualization of Tinubu’s long dream of becoming Nigeria’s President.
Indeed, President Buhari’s legacies have actually become part of the burdens of the incoming administration.
The fact is that in matching Buhari’s promise with Buhari’s performance, historians and political pundits can easily reach the consensus that in many areas his scorecard is hollow.
It would be recalled that at his inaugural speech in 2015, Buhari had said, “Nigerians will not regret that they have entrusted
national responsibility to us.
“We must not succumb to hopelessness and defeatism. We can fix our problems.’
But the reality beggars the promise as investigations show that Buhari is currently leaving behind an inheritance fraught with many problems.
*Buhari’s legacies*
As his administration comes to an end at precisely noon next Monday, the anus of mother hen would be exposed by the ravaging wind of monumental corruption.
It would dawn on Nigerians that the Nigeria Buhari leaves behind is a sharp contrast with the one he inherited from former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.
President Buhari who had promised during his campaign in 2015 to address the lingering insecurity crisis, to fight the overwhelming corruption to standstill and build the economy by making one dollar sell at par with the Naira, failed to fulfilled his promises eight years after being in the saddle of leadership of Nigeria.
It would be needless to emphasize that Buhari failed to resolve Nigeria’s age long socio-economic challenges under his watch as the nation witnessed unprecedented retrogression on several Human Development Indices (HDI).
The Economy
As soon as Buhari came in, the nation’s economy which was breathing a good measure of fresh air suffered its first shock as crude oil earnings plummeted as a barrel of oil previously sold at $100 fell to $65.
Available records showed that the nation’s GDP which was $493.3 billion suffered a decline in 2021 to $440.8 billion.
However on the Foreign Direct Investment, (FDI), Nigeria had attracted not less than $98 billion but declined to $89.4 billion in Buhari’s eight years regime.
Available records from Nairametrics, showed that from a $89.4 billion inflow, $22.1 billion Was realised as equity investments while $67.3 billion was recorded as debt-linked securities and repayable loans.
In the same vein, within the period under review, foreign reserves decreased, inflation rate continues to gallop and naira remains at free fall as one dollar is now equal to ₦760. Other essential consumables witnessed a similar hike in price.
In 2015, a bag of rice was sold at ₦8,000 compared to current price of ₦45,000. A litre of petrol was ₦87 but sells for ₦200, a loaf of bread was ₦200 but the current price is ₦1,000.
The power generated dropped from 4,949 to 2,409.50 megawatts. It was observed that in monetary terms the total power generation capacity lost in the energy sector rose to ₦1.76 trillion between 2015 and 2022.
The administration before Buhari had 6.07 per cent growth in four years, but the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS, said the economy grew by an average of 1.40 per cent under this regime.
When the President took over from Jonathan, Nigeria’s had single-digit inflation, which stood at nine percent. But as of December 2022, the NBS put the rate at 21.34 per cent.
Inflation, which led to daily increases in the prices of goods and services, resulted in the Naira losing more than half its value.
As of April 2023, the country’s Consumer Price Index, CPI, for food stood at 640.0, compared to 176.3 points it was in May 2015. Specifically, the index gauges the average fluctuation in prices of major food items.
The World Bank, in its 2022 Nigeria public finance review report, titled, ‘A Better Future for All Nigerians’, said Nigeria’s development stagnated since 2015.
“Nigeria’s development progress has stagnated. Between 2001 and 2014, Nigeria was a rising star in West Africa, with an average growth rate of seven per cent per year, and it ranked among the top 15 fastest-growing economies in the world”, the Bank noted.
“However, this trend ended abruptly in 2015, as oil prices fell, the security situation deteriorated, macroeconomic reforms were reversed, and economic policies became increasingly unpredictable”.
According to the Association of Power Generation Companies, the national grid collapsed 98 times under Buhari’s watch.
It observed that total power generation capacity loss in the energy sector rose to N1.76tn, between 2015 and 2022.
Upon assumption of office, Buhari inherited a debt profile of approximately $10.32 billion in 2015, but he is leaving behind total debts of about N77 trillion.
The administration of ex-President Obasanjo government inherited $28 billion as foreign debt in 1999.
When it left in 2007, it was $2.11 billion after successfully securing a write-off by the London and Paris Clubs.
The Yar’adua/Jonathan government added $1.39 billion to what they inherited while the Jonathan government incurred an additional $3.8 billion.
SECURITY: 165, 000 deaths in eight years
As of May 29, 2015, Boko Haram terrorists posed a major security challenge to the nation. They held sway in some territories and at the same time could commit large-scale atrocities. The Buhari administration at some point succeeded in degrading the group’s capacity to commit mass murder beyond Borno State.
It would be recalled that upon assumption of office, the President had moved the military command centre to Maiduguri in Borno State, through the establishment of the Command and Control Centre, MCCC, in the state.
The aim was to effectively fight the Boko Haram insurgency. Irrespective of the successes recorded, the sect remains a potent threat.
However, just like the economy, security is one area many believe Buhari performed woefully. While Boko Haram was the only major threat at the time he came on board, Nigeria witnessed the birth of other terrorist groups.
The activities of Ansaru terrorists, herdsmen, bandits, kidnappers and Unknown Gunmen, UGM, have led to the death of thousands under Buhari’s watch.
Majority are still unconvinced his handling of herdsmen and bandits’ menace made the country more unsafe than he met it. In fact, several reports stated that Nigeria had more deaths under Buhari’s administration than in all previous civilian regimes since 1999.
Data gleaned from Nigeria Security Tracker, NST, showed that no fewer than 165,000 needless deaths were recorded as of May last year.
A breakdown showed that an average of 21 people was killed daily as of 2022.
In his first four years alone, 25,794 people were reportedly killed in various attacks, according to another report by Premium Times.
In the first quarter of this year alone, Nigeria Mourn, a violent incident tracking organization, reported that no fewer than 1,151 civilians and 79 security operatives were killed.
The latest Global Terrorism Index, GTI, report showed that Nigeria moved to 8th position from fourth position in 2022.
ANTI-CORRUPTION
One of the major factors that made Buhari’s 2015 victory possible was the notion that he would be tough on corruption.
This was largely informed by the incorruptible image people attributed to him given his record as military Head of State.
Since the Jonathan administration was perceived as weak on anti-corruption war, a lot was expected from Buhari in that space.
Nigeria had ranked 136th out of 168 countries in the 2015 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index.
Eight years later, analysts feel he hasn’t delivered on his promise of fighting corruption.
In his two terms, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, has yet to record high-profile convictions while many cases against former governors and ministers are pending before the commission.
In the 2022 annual Correction Perception Index, Nigeria still ranked among the most corrupt nations. The nation ranked 150th out of 180 countries.
Nonetheless, there have been a few bright spots in the anti-graft war as the EFCC had secured some forfeiture to the Federal Government.
The nation has also witnessed the repatriation of money funds stashed overseas. Upon assumption of office, the President strengthened the Treasury Single Account and the IPPIS to ensure accountability in the remittance of public funds.
Buhari also spearheaded the amendment of the Asset Management Corporation Act in 2019 and 2021. The aim was to streamline asset recovery and disposal, leading to the Proceeds of Crime, Recovery and Management Act 2022.
There were also Executive Orders to improve the ease of doing business at the nation’s seaports.
8,871 convictions in eight years
In 2022, the EFCC said it recorded 3,785 convictions, describing it as the highest since its inception.
The commission was said to have secured 103 in 2015, 195 in 2016, 312 in 2018 and 1,280 in 2019.
In 2020, 976 were secured while it was 2,220 in 2021. The summary of the figure showed that 8,871 convictions were recorded under Buhari’s watch.
In 2015, EFCC recorded a total of 103 convictions, according to the EFCC. In 2016, the first full year of Buhari’s government, 195 convictions were recorded. The number increased to 312 in 2018, and 1, 280 in 2019.
The figure, however, decreased significantly to 976 convictions in 2020 and increased to 2, 220 in 2021.
Irrespective of these, several events and actions haven’t helped Buhari’s anti-corruption record in eight years. Prominent among them is the fact that several public office holders, who have cases at the EFCC, saw their trials being discontinued or paused the moment they defect to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC.
In any case, these are some of the excess luggage of the Buhari legacy that have now become the burdens of the Tinubu administration.
