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Obi’s phenomenon, G5 Governors, Power Rotation, Muslim-Muslim Ticket, Naira Swap Trigger Shocks, Re-alignments
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Election To Jangle Nerves
The race to elect President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor will climax on Saturday as much of the 93.4 million eligible voters are set to file out to exercise their franchise in Nigeria’s hottest election of the century tipped to see record turnout.
18 presidential candidates will be on the ballot. However, all eyes are now on Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), according to several polling data.
In spite of the candidates’ records of performance in previous offices held, manifestos and big talks, certain issues appear to have stuck with the candidates and their campaigns as political messaging and rhetorics failed to shove aside the many concerns nursed by diverse voters in over five months of rigorous campaigns.
APC’s Tinubu
For Tinubu, a kingmaker in past elections who has found unflinching motivation in becoming a king himself, the concerns over the candidate’s health and the Muslim-Muslim (M-M) ticket have ceased to go away as they dug his campaign throughout the past months. While some might spurn the allegations of the drug and corruption leveled against the former Lagos Governor, the endless gaffes made by Tinubu on the campaign trail triggered more speculations over his cognitive and physical capacity to govern even among his own voters in their closets. In fact at some point, his media spin doctors began to have a hard time defending the incoherent speeches documented against him in viral videos, sometimes stretching their rhetorics to hurt their principal’s campaign.
Tinubu, 70, (though often disputed), a Southern Muslim had picked former Borno Governor, Kashim Shettima, also a Muslim as running mate in what was said to have been targeted at the Northwest and Northeast voting bank, where voters are predominantly Muslims. For this reason, his candidacy courted controversies among Southern voters and moderates in northern Nigeria, including in Southwest which has been a bastion of religious plurality and views in the country for decades.
Months-long tracking of the state of the race suggests while Christians of othordox leaning especially older people might not take exception to the M-M ticket, Tinubu, who has a Pastor wife has laboured in vain to woo evangelical Christians who worship in large congregation churches to vote for the controversial ticket despite attempts to explain it away. Religious sentiment remains an enigma across Nigeria. More so, as there is an overwhelming perception that the Buhari’s presidency has further widened Nigeria’s crack lines along religion and ethnicity in the last eight years. Hence, APC loss might be the Labour Party’s gain in the South as Obi has been tipped to eat deep into Tinubu’s targeted votes in the Southwest should religion trump ethnic sentiment among Yoruba Christians. In the end, Tinubu is still projected to take Southwest. Same cannot be said for Southeast and South-South where opposition to his candidacy appears stiffer.
Meanwhile, Tinubu, who is set to profit from 22 states, where the ruling APC holds sway amid discordant tunes between Tinubu and the presidency over the Naira swap palava, has the most hard-core voters, who are likely to stay put regardless of threat of violence and election day rigours, according to a poll by Stears Election Centre.
The Centre’s predictive poll puts Obi ahead of the two main challengers in a large voter turnout scenario, saying a lesser turnout might favor Tinubu. “The idea is that these are the harder than hardcore voters and those that most likely will turn up to vote on the day. Under that scenario, the APC candidate … emerges victorious,” co-founder and head of intelligence at data company Stears, Michael Famoroti, told foreign media.
Labour Party’s Obi
Peter Obi, 61, has inspired many young Nigerians to participate in the 2023 process with his energy, ideas and promise of moving Nigeria ‘from consumption to production.’ However, his campaign is not without concerns and odds. Bookmakers have predicted there’s no clear path for Obi to get 25 per cent of total vote cast in two-third of the 36 states –24 — in addition to winning the majority of the votes, a constitutional requirement that must be satisfied to land Nigeria’s presidency. But the Obi’s campaign and his army of supporters dubbed: ‘the Obedients’ think otherwise. Also, many of the surplus polls consistently put him ahead in the election, to the consternation of his rivals. At this juncture no poll is right, no poll is wrong until the ballot outcomes begin to emerge.
While there are early indications that Obi, a former Anambra State Governor and businessman will sweep through Southeast and parts of South-South, The New Diplomat projects that the Northwest and Northeast are locked up for APC’s Tinubu and PDP’s Atiku. Any poor showing for Obi in North-Central might mean he would have to kiss the presidency a good bye in 2023. The North-Central also known as middle-belt, under Buhari has been beleaguered by the ‘displacement and replacement strategy’ said to have been the under-belly of farmers’ frequent clashes with Fulani herders. It was learnt that this monstrous issue currently dominates the thought of many voters in states like Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa where villages had been ransacked with hundreds massacred. The massive endorsement of Obi-Datti’s ticket by the Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom should ordinarily be a rebuke to Atiku and Tinubu in the region. But how about voters in Niger, Kogi and Kwara? Do they view Obi’s candidacy using Ortom’s prism?
Yet no Nigerian President has emerged without winning the middle-belt since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari all swept votes in the region to land in Aso Rock.
Secondly, Obi’s critics have a refrain for the Labour Party — it has no structure. The party was hitherto unknown until May, 2022 when Obi showed up as against the PDP and APC’s widespread presence across Nigeria’s grassroots. Elections in Nigeria still require heavy mobilisation of party agents and machinery to police and protect candidate’s votes especially in many remote places amid the threat of vote-buying, voter’s suppression and violence in hotspots. This is as the Labour Party was unable to field in as much candidates for other positions as the behemoths: the APC and PDP have fielded, something that often boosts the participation of more party members as watchdogs at polling units and wards in Nigerian elections. But the Obedients have a signature response to this: ‘the same political structure has been a rigging tool in the past’, pointing to INEC’s introduction of BVAS machine as a cure-all strategy.
Many had suggested if the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had opted for candidate’s face and name as against Party’s logo, Obi is likely to get more visibility on the ballot especially among rural and uneducated voters. Little wonder why Obi had to wear shirt bearing the Labour Party’s logo to virtually every public outing just to familiarise voters with the logo.
Scaling these hurdles on voting day poses no small challenge. Yet it will be integral to the victory of Obi’s Labour Party as elections often throw Nigeria into a state of flux with multiple scenarios to deal with on d-day.
PDP’s Atiku
Atiku Abubakar, 76, a serial presidential candidate, is running against convention in this election, breaching the unwritten agreement of North-South power rotation. Analysts had suggested that the much of the lingering crisis roiling the PDP emanated from the attempt by the former Vice President to upend this lasting arrangement since 1999 which has somewhat balanced out power in Africa’s largest democracy as Buhari, also a northern Muslim of the Fulani stock like Atiku will complete his constitutionally guaranteed two terms on May 29.
In fact, Atiku’s running mate and Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa has been continously hounded for joining the Atiku-Okowa ticket, having mobilised Southern Governors for a power shift to the south of River Niger, only to turnaround and run with Atiku. The Governor is being taunted as ‘hypocrite’ by many of his Southern colleagues and groups like Pan-Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), Afenifere and the Ohanaeze Ndigbo, who are now hellbent on working against the ticket.
Judging by his antecedents during the Obasanjo’s years as Vice President, many Nigerian electorate still view Atiku as a rabid capitalist with far-right economic view, who could sell anything in sight. And what about his many reported corruption scandals? These concerns never dissipated throughout his campaign no matter his pattern of messaging to Nigerians.
While Atiku has staged a mammoth warchest to split the votes in the Northwest and Northeast with Tinubu and perhaps win the blocs, the breakaway G-5 Governors led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers and the rise of Peter Obi in the South have eroded Atiku’s strength in the traditional PDP areas: South-South and Southeast.
The New Diplomat reports Wike of Rivers, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Samuel Ortom (Benue), and Seyi Makinde (Oyo) pulled out of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council last year, insisting that except the National Chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, quits his position, they wouldn’t have anything to do with the campaigns.
Many of the G-5 Governors have now been reported to be engaging in alleged anti-party activities. For instance, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state on Tuesday asked voters in his state to “vote for our (PDP) senators; they should
Vote for our reps (PDP) and for the presidential candidates; they should vote for unity of Nigeria and inclusivity for Nigeria,” he said, skipping Atiku in his political messaging.
Also, Wike, a Southern Christian, who has been inconsolable since he lost the PDP ticket to Atiku against the gentleman’s power rotation, has not hidden his disdain for the Atiku-Okowa ticket, lashing out at the PDP hierarchy at every opportunity he gets to speak. Wike is said to have secretly cut a deal to work for Tinubu in Rivers amid projection that the South-South state which has the fourth highest number of registered voters after Lagos, Kano and Kaduna, might tilt towards Obi’s Labour Party this Saturday.
It’s not all doom for Atiku as there are forecasts that Atiku could still get the 25 percent in two-third of the states, courtesy PDP’s decades-old structure and Atiku’s machinery nationwide. However, in Northwest, he’s being rivalled by Tinubu and welfarist politician and the former Kano Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). In Northeast, Atiku is going head-to-head with Shettima, Tinubu’s running mate, who has some clout too in that zone. Atiku must clinch those two zones first and push the envelope in North-Central, if he must survive the 2023 onslaught. It’s really looking like an arduous task for the Adamawa High Chief, having lost the PDP’s voting strength in the South, courtesy party’s internal wrangling and his bid to usurp power shift to the South this time.
- How Next Nigeria’s President Will Emerge According To New Electoral Act
Beyond winning a simple majority, the victorious candidate also has to have at least 25 percent of the votes cast in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states.
If no candidate meets these criteria, a run-off will be conducted within 21 days, with only two candidates allowed to participate: the one with the highest number of votes in total and the candidate who garnered the required 25 percent votes in more states than any other candidate.
If there are two candidates who meet the second criterion, the candidate with the highest vote tally will be picked to run against the candidate with the majority of the votes in the first round of voting.
Essentially, second place in the first voting round does not guarantee a spot in the run-off.
The election can be cancelled if wide malpractice is recorded. In this case, a rerun will be ordered instead of a run-off.
