Asia’s liquefied natural gas imports are set to reach the second-highest on record in October, but even these elevated volumes will not be near enough to meet the pledges of North Asian countries to buy American LNG and energy under the trade deals.
Asia is set to import as much as 3.61 million tons of U.S. LNG in October, according to Kpler estimates reported by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. The October import volumes, if they materialize, would mark the second-biggest monthly Asian imports, only behind the 3.75 million tons of LNG imported in February 2021.
With China sitting mostly on the sidelines amid trade talks and extended trade truces and delays of tariffs, it will be South Korea and Japan that are expected to boost significantly purchases of U.S. LNG and other energy products in the near term.
In the U.S.-South Korea trade deal from the end of July, South Korea committed to buying $100 billion worth of U.S. LNG and other energy exports, a move hailed by U.S. President Donald Trump as a win for American workers and energy producers.
It is not clear what the timeframe is for the $100 billion South Korean imports of American energy.
Last year, South Korea’s LNG imports from the United States stood at 5.71 million tons. At current Asian spot prices of $11.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), these volumes would be worth just $3.45 billion, according to calculations by Reuters’ Russell.
Japan’s LNG import volumes from the U.S. in 2024 would be worth just below $4 billion today.
The White House says the U.S.-Japan trade deal includes “major expansion of U.S. energy exports to Japan.”
Japan may find it hard to increase significantly its purchases of American energy, especially crude oil. That’s not for lack of trying—refiners are studying raising their U.S. crude imports, but none is equipped to process 100%-pure US crude, Shunichi Kito, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan, has said, as quoted by Argus.
It’s unrealistic that North Asian trade partners, as well as Europe, will raise their U.S. LNG exports too much to meet trade-deal levels, analysts say.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
