Less than four days to the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primary, the surplus 23 aspirants wrestling to pick the party’s sole ticket have concentrated attention on wooing adhoc delegates — the beautiful bride in the equation — who will seal their fate at the Eagle Square, Abuja. But before then, some of the gladiators imbued with mammoth warchest are hoping that the consensus arrangement said to be favoured by President Muhammadu Buhari flops.
The media had been awashed with reports touting the search for the ideal consensus presidential candidate of the ruling APC, following Buhari’s meeting with the APC Governors on Tuesday before his official trip to Spain.
It is widely believed that while the consensus will throw up certain aspirants, it is set to break the back of others, who are angling for an open presidential primary.
Checks by The New Diplomat show that the projected delegates that will participate in the APC presidential primary slated for 6-7 June, are about 2,322 — 3 each from 774 local government areas — across the six Geo-political zones of the country. If the 18 delegates from six Abuja councils are added, the figure will hit 2,340(still subjective as of the time of this reporting), no thanks to section 84 (8) of the amended electoral Act which disqualifies statutory delegates as much as 5,478 of the ruling APC from also participating. A “deficiency that was never intended”, President of the Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan would later say after the new amendment bill was passed by the red chamber. Considered a costly ‘error’ in some quarters, the disqualification of statutory delegates, others argued, has actually helped aspirants to save cost.
Like Nigerians saw last weekend during the primary election that produced Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the main opposition’s Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 polls, the non-inclusion of the statutory delegates has further empowered the adhoc delegates as politicians used all manners of juicy offers to woo them and even introduced dollars to gain delegates’ attention as the political equation became knotty at some point during the delegates’ voting.
The New Diplomat understands that whereas the adhoc delegates are elected during congresses across the wards in each state, the statutory delegates otherwise known as automatic delegates come from past and present political office holders including President, Vice, Governors, Lawmakers, Local Government Chairmen, Vice etc.
‘How Geo-political Zones are likely to fare with their pool of aspirants and Adhoc delegate bloc’
Southeast: 288 Delegates, 8 Aspirants
The Southeast geo-political zone, despite having the least delegates — 288 — among the six zones in the country, has the highest number of presidential hopefuls of the APC stock. It is indeed a crowded race there and it’s understandably so.
Assuming the eight aspirants from the region fail to queue behind their best bet on the D-Day, they are likely to mess up Southeast delegate votes before even reaching out to other geo-political zones for support and horse-trading.
The zone clamouring to produce Buhari’s successor in 2023, for the first time since the nation’s return to civil rule in 1999 has eight aspirants who include former Governor of Imo State, Senator Rochas Okorocha; former Minister of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Dr Ogbonnaya Onu; Ebonyi State Governor, Dave Umahi; ex-Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba and former Senate President, Sen. Ken Nnamani; the only woman in the APC race, B. Uju Kennedy Ohanenye; Pastor Nicholas Felix Nwagbo and former Minister of Information, Chief Ikeobasi Mokelu
Southwest: 411 Delegates, 7 Aspirants
Southwest is the geo-political zone with the second highest APC delegate bloc, next to Northwest. However, with seven presidential aspirants in the ring, the zone has more than enough gladiators and spoilers that are likely to split delegate votes from their region.
With two-three aspirants (names withheld) reported as heavyweights in the APC presidential race from the region, the battle for the ruling party’s presidential ticket might just be up to who edges out others to rake majority of the 411 delegate votes in the Southwest, without ruling out elements of surprises and shocks from the remaining fives geo-political zones.
The seven aspirants from Southwest are incumbent Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, Former Governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Fomer Governor of Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Senator Ajayi Borroffice and Former House of Representatives Speaker, Dimeji Bankole.
South-South — 359 Delegates; 4 Aspirants
The region has four aspirants in immediate past Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; Cross River State Governor, Ben Ayade; immediate past Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio and businessman Tein Jack Rich.
While Amaechi (said to be another frontline aspirant), Ayade and Akpabio are expected to deliver their states — Rivers, Cross River and Akwa Ibom respectively for themselves, barring any last-minute torpedo or withdrawal from the race, the three other Niger Delta states might become battleground for delegate votes.
For instance, the Deputy President of the Senate and APC Guber candidate in Delta State, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege has a firm grip on Delta APC and he might decide to tilt the scale in a direction that could shift the primary dynamics with delegate votes from his state and elsewhere in the region.
North-West — 558 Delegates; 2 Aspirants
North West has Jigawa State governor, Mohammed Badaru and former Zamfara State governor, Senator Ahmed Yerima. The duo are said to be quietly reaching out to delegates.
The geo-political zone is the toast of any serious presidential aspirants seeking delegate votes just as in the main popular election.
With the highest delegate bloc and considering the current dynamics, North-West can best be described as the main deciding zone that might seal the fate of all presidential aspirants. It’s believed that, whoever gets a chunk of it, gets all!
Indeed, this zone which has the highest number of delegates could likely spring surprises. The aspirants from this zone have been quietly reaching out to delegates without making noise in the media. Could there be a dark horse? The dynamics in this primary are very fluid and the pendulum could swing in any direction!
North-Central — 363 Delegates; 1 Aspirant
Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello is the sole aspirant from the region.
North-Central is also a fishing ground for the frontline contenders.
North-East — 1 Aspirant and 336 delegates.
Like the Southeast, the zone has not produced a president before now. The President of the Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan, the sole APC aspirant from the region is banking on that to clinch the APC presidential ticket.
Some are already warning that Lawan, who made a late surprise entry to the presidential race, is a dark horse that could shock the pack of aspirants from Southern Nigeria.
Political pundits had argued that should the South lose the APC presidential ticket, it might be to the waiting hands of Senator Lawan, who hails from Yobe State.
Otherwise, the North-East remains another battleground zone among leading APC presidential aspirants for delegate votes.
Where Will the Pendulum Swing?
Further checks by The New Diplomat reveal that there is divided position among gladiators in the Party as to whether the pendum should swing North or South! While some aspirants from the South-which has a total of 19 aspirants with 1,068 delegates-maintain that power should shift to the South, other aspirants from the North are similarly maintaining that the Electoral dynamics including voting population make a case for a candidate from the North more compelling.The North has just five aspirants and 1,257 delegates.
The above has continued to raise the mouthwatering question: where would the pendulum swing? Would the APC hierarchy decide to stick around a consensus presidential candidate?
