Analysts weigh in as Putin threatens Europe with war amid Ukraine peace talks uncertainty

The New Diplomat
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By Obinna Uballa

Peace talks between the United States and Russia on Tuesday failed to produce a breakthrough, with Russian President Vladimir Putin doubling down on threats toward Europe and saying Russia is “ready” for war, even as diplomacy struggles to yield a resolution to the nearly four-year conflict in Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law Jared Kushner travelled to Moscow for discussions with Putin and his senior aides on a draft peace plan aimed at ending the war. The talks lasted five hours, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters, describing them as “very useful, constructive, and highly informative,” while cautioning that significant disagreements remain.

“We agreed on some things … while others caused criticism, and the President [Putin] also made no secret of our critical, even negative, attitude toward a number of proposals. But the main thing is that we had a very useful discussion,” Ushakov said, according to NBC News.

Details of the plan remain unclear. Following an initial 28-point draft secretly devised by the U.S. and Russia, Ukraine and its European allies amended the proposal to 19 points and held further talks in Florida last weekend. Russia and Ukraine remain deeply divided over central elements, including Moscow’s demand that Kyiv cede partially-occupied eastern territory and disagreements over Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine.

Ushakov confirmed that both sides discussed a 27-point plan during Tuesday’s talks and had received additional documents from the U.S., though he did not elaborate. Both nations agreed to keep details of the discussions confidential.

‘Ready’ for War

Ahead of the talks, Putin attacked Europe’s counterproposals, describing them as “absolutely unacceptable” and claiming that the continent’s leadership has “no peace agenda.”

“We’re not going to war with Europe; I’ve said that a hundred times. But if Europe suddenly wants to fight us and starts, we’re ready right now,” Putin told journalists.

European officials have raised concerns over being excluded from initial U.S.-Russia talks, which produced a draft seen as favoring Russia. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned Monday that “it is clear that Russia does not want peace, and therefore we need to make Ukraine as strong as possible.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, sought to remain optimistic, telling Irish lawmakers that Ukraine is “closer to peace than ever before” and that there is a “real, real chance” for an agreement following discussions with Washington.

Geopolitical analysts say Russia is likely to prolong the peace process, leveraging its battlefield advantage to extract concessions from Ukraine.

Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations to CNBC that, “It’s in Putin’s interest just to keep the process going … to have a long process of diplomatic engagement. He wants a broader conversation about Russia’s reintegration with the West and relations with the U.S., commercial agreements, and to make this long and drawn out while continuing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and making incremental gains on the ground.”

Amos Hochstein, managing partner at TWG Global and former senior advisor in the Biden administration, echoed the assessment to CNBC, noting that Ukraine faces a difficult trade-off between territorial concessions and fragile security guarantees.

“The Russians are not in a hurry for a deal here,” Hochstein said. “Any concessions Ukraine might make would be hard to secure from Russia, which depends on the war to maintain leverage and sustain its war economy.”

The talks underscore the tenuous state of diplomacy in the Ukraine war, with Moscow asserting its demands, Europe pressing for robust support for Kyiv, and the U.S. navigating a delicate balancing act in pursuit of a potential resolution.

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