WTI crude oil futures traded near $60.20 per barrel on Thursday, extending losses as traders braced for a third consecutive monthly decline. The market remains weighed down by rising global output, a firmer U.S. dollar, and lingering concerns that OPEC+ may opt for a modest supply increase when it meets next week.
Highlights
– WTI crude oil nears $60, heading for a third monthly drop.
– OPEC+ considers raising production by 137,000 barrels per day.
– U.S. output and a strong dollar add to downside pressure.
The daily chart shows WTI entrenched in a descending triangle pattern that has defined the downtrend since midyear. Price action remains capped below key EMA’s clustered between $60.30 and $65.25. This alignment reflects firm selling control, with each rebound attempt toward the 50-day EMA near $61.60 facing renewed resistance.
The Supertrend indicator remains negative, reinforcing a bearish tone with next potential targets at $56.50 and $55.20. A decisive close below $60 could accelerate the decline toward these levels, while a breakout above $63 would be needed to reverse the near-term structure.Momentum indicators also signal continued weakness. The RSI stands at 38, underscoring subdued buying interest, while the MACD remains in a bearish cross below the zero line. The wide Bollinger Bands highlight elevated volatility, suggesting room for further downside before conditions stabilize.
Supply surge adds to pressure
Fundamentally, global production growth is keeping oil prices under strain. Reports suggest the OPEC+ alliance may add roughly 137,000 barrels per day in December to maintain market share, a move that would coincide with U.S. output hitting a record 13.6 million barrels per day. Saudi exports have also climbed to 6.41 million bpd, their highest level in six months.
New U.S. sanctions on Russian producers are unlikely to offset the supply expansion, with Middle Eastern and North American output poised to fill any shortfall. The U.S. dollar’s strength — with the DXY hovering near a three-month high—compounds the downside risk, as dollar-denominated commodities become less attractive for foreign buyers.
At the same time, soft demand growth expectations have prevented any sustained rebound. Traders remain cautious ahead of the November 2 OPEC+ meeting, where the group will weigh the balance between market stability and price competitiveness.
Outlook and key levels
WTI crude faces a critical inflection point as it trades near $60. The immediate support zone lies between $60 and $56.50, with a deeper floor at $55.20. A breakdown below these levels could extend the decline toward the $52–$50 range, while reclaiming $63–$65 would signal short-term stabilization.
As previously discussed, the market bias remains bearish heading into the OPEC+ summit, with supply growth, firm dollar conditions, and fragile demand all tilting the balance toward sellers. Unless the alliance signals stronger production restraint or renewed geopolitical disruptions emerge, WTI may struggle to avoid another monthly loss.
Credit: Oilprice.com
