By Obinna Uballa
A new poverty report by the World Bank has sparked a wave of controversy in Nigeria, with the Federal Government dismissing it as “unrealistic” and experts insisting that the figures, however grim, reflect the lived experiences of millions of citizens.
The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update released this week estimates that 139 million Nigerians, about 60 percent of the population, are living below the poverty line.
Experts say the figure, up from 129 million in April 2025, underscores the growing hardship faced by households despite government claims of economic recovery.
But the Presidency was quick to dispute the findings, arguing that the data was based on outdated models that failed to capture Nigeria’s informal economy and recent social intervention programmes.
In a statement released by Sunday Dare, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Media and Public Communication, the government said the World Bank’s figure was “a theoretical construct, not a real-time count of poor Nigerians.”
“While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic,” Dare wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday.
He explained that the estimate was derived from the global poverty benchmark of $2.15 per person per day, set in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). At current exchange rates, that translates to about N100,000 per month, well above the country’s new N70,000 minimum wage, suggesting that the model may not reflect local realities.
“The World Bank’s measure overlooks Nigeria’s informal and subsistence sectors, which sustain millions of families. Poverty cannot be understood solely through statistical formulas,” the statement said.
The Presidency went on to list a series of initiatives it says are tackling poverty and inequality, including expanded Conditional Cash Transfers to 15 million households, disbursement of N297 billion since 2023, and the rollout of the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme aimed at providing micro-infrastructure in every ward.
Other programmes cited include the strengthening of N-Power, TraderMoni, and Home-Grown School Feeding, alongside new infrastructure investments to boost jobs and reduce living costs.
Dare said the administration’s structural reforms, such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification—were “painful but necessary” measures to rebuild the economy.
“Even the World Bank itself has acknowledged that these reforms are restoring macroeconomic stability,” he added.
World Bank insists hardship is deepening
At the report’s launch in Abuja, Mathew Verghis, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, praised the government’s reforms but warned that macroeconomic progress had yet to translate into improved living standards.
“Despite these stabilisation gains, many households are still struggling with eroded purchasing power,” Verghis said. “In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty.”
He described the current reform window as a “historic opportunity” to reverse years of decline, likening it to India’s economic turnaround in the early 1990s.
“Growth is picking up, debt indicators are improving, and inflation is slowly easing,” he said. “But reforms must now move from policy to people.”
Experts and opposition push back
Many economists and political observers who spoke to Punch Newspaper said the government’s rebuttal misses the point.
Tony Akeni, National Publicity Secretary of the Labour Party, said the administration’s claims of recovery mean little when Nigerians cannot afford food or housing.
“While the President talks about growth and reduced inflation, these are only figures on paper. They haven’t translated into any advantage for the ordinary Nigerian,” Akeni said.
The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) spokesman, Ladipo Johnson, accused the government of worsening the country’s debt burden and failing to protect citizens from the fallout of its economic policies.
“The President keeps proposing new loans despite ballooning deficits. Unless something changes, poverty will rise further before year-end,” Johnson warned.
From the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Deputy National Youth Leader Timothy Osadolor said Nigerians “don’t need the World Bank to know there’s hunger in the land.”
“You see it on people’s faces every day. The government should stop arguing with statistics and focus on results,” he said.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) echoed similar sentiments, with its spokesman Bola Abdullahi describing the presidency’s defence as “self-delusion.”
“The GDP numbers they tout are meaningless when the average family can’t afford a decent meal,” Abdullahi said. “Maybe the World Bank will succeed in telling the government what we’ve been saying all along.”
For the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), the debate over poverty figures is secondary to the reality that wages no longer sustain workers.
Chris Onyeka, the NLC’s Assistant General Secretary, said the new N70,000 minimum wage “barely buys a bag of rice.”
“Poverty is not an abstract statistic, it’s a daily struggle. Workers are living it,” Onyeka said. “Inflation, high rents, and transport costs have made survival a luxury.”
Economist Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), noted that while the government’s reforms were vital for long-term stability, they have temporarily worsened hardship.
“The process of fixing what’s broken has aggravated poverty,” Yusuf said. “Exchange rate unification and subsidy removal spiked inflation and weakened purchasing power.”
He advised the government to shift focus toward reducing living costs through targeted support for agriculture, transport, and small businesses.
