By Obinna Uballa
The African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria’s latest experiment at forging a credible opposition platform ahead of the 2027 elections, is already showing cracks.
Barely months after welcoming heavyweight defectors, the party has been thrown into an early storm as the ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Labour Party standard bearer Peter Obi collide, raising doubts about whether the coalition can survive long enough to mount a serious challenge to President Bola Tinubu.
The latest spark came from Atiku’s midweek interview with BBC Hausa, where he declared readiness to contest the ADC presidential primaries, while promising to step aside if defeated by a younger aspirant.
Atiku, who turns 80 in 2027 was emphatic that the ADC “prioritises youth and women,” even as he avoided a definitive statement on whether he would ultimately be on the ballot.
The comments were quickly picked apart by Obi’s loyal base, the Obidient Movement, which dismissed Atiku’s positioning as political “mind games.” For them, the former Vice President represents the old order of transactional politics, incompatible with Obi’s brand of integrity-driven populism.
Dr. Yunusa Tanko, Obi’s former campaign spokesman and current coordinator of the Obidient Movement, made the pushback explicit in a statement on Thursday. “Peter Obi will never contest in a primary election where delegates must be bought. That has become the norm in other camps, and now even in dollars,” Tanko said. “For those of us who want to inspire young Nigerians, how do you encourage them with such practices?”
The rebuke underscored simmering tension between the two camps. Both men command substantial followings and carry moral authority from their 2023 campaigns. But their coexistence in one party, with the same prize in view, increasingly looks untenable.
Former Kaduna senator Shehu Sani added his voice on Thursday, suggesting that Atiku’s talk of stepping aside was more theoretical than real. “It’s easier for a camel to pass through the hole of a needle than to beat the Waziri in primaries,” he posted on X, a reminder of Atiku’s long mastery of delegate politics.
This dynamic leaves the ADC’s fragile coalition in limbo. The party was designed as a big-tent alternative for opposition figures disillusioned with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party. By bringing together Atiku, Obi and other actors, the hope was to present a united front in 2027. Instead, analysts say the clash of ambitions risks reproducing the same fragmentation that doomed opposition chances in 2023.
For Tinubu, who has endured a difficult first term marked by economic hardship, unpopular reforms and widening insecurity, division among his opponents could prove to be a political lifeline, observers say.
“The President and his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) remain vulnerable, but as 2023 demonstrated, victory is attainable with a splintered opposition,” said Chidi Anthony, Abuja based political observer. “A scenario where Atiku and Obi cannot reconcile within the ADC could easily set the stage for Tinubu’s second term bid.”
Anthony warns that unless the ADC brokers come up with an early power-sharing formula or secures a consensus candidate, its credibility as a coalition will be short-lived. “What we are seeing is déjà vu,” he noted. “The opposition always talks coalition but when the chips are down, individual ambitions take over. Tinubu may not even need to fight too hard if Atiku and Obi remain on collision course.”
