By Obinna Uballa
France is on edge as Prime Minister François Bayrou and his minority government brace for an almost certain defeat in a crucial confidence vote today, Monday, a loss that could potentially plunge the country into deeper political and economic uncertainty, reports said.
Bayrou triggered the vote after failing to secure enough support for his 2026 budget plan, which includes €44 billion ($51.3 billion) in spending cuts aimed at reducing France’s budget deficit from 5.8% of GDP in 2024 to 4.6% by 2026, still above EU fiscal limits.
CNBC reports that if the government falls, it will mark the collapse of France’s second administration in a year, following Michel Barnier’s short-lived tenure that ended last December.
The looming instability has already unsettled markets, with France’s 30-year bond yield spiking last week before easing to 4.35% on Monday, while the 10-year yield stood at 3.43%.
If that happens, President Emmanuel Macron would then face the tough challenge of appointing his fifth prime minister in less than two years, a reflection of a chronic instability that has plagued his second term, the report added.
Macron’s decision to call a snap parliamentary election last year backfired, leaving parliament fractured between left-wing and far-right blocs and forcing him to rely on a fragile centrist-led minority governments.
Both the New Popular Front on the left and the National Rally on the right have vowed to vote against Bayrou’s government after clashes over sweeping spending cuts, tax hikes, a public spending freeze, and a controversial proposal to eliminate two public holidays.
Bayrou has warned that the vote represents an existential moment for France, calling the situation “grave and urgent” in an interview with BFMTV last week. The vote is expected Monday afternoon, with results due after 5 p.m. local time.
Socialist Party MP Arthur Delaporte said his party could not back what he described as a “blind confidence vote,” blasting the scale and speed of Bayrou’s austerity plan. “Too many cuts, to public services, pensions, and social benefits. It’s not acceptable. There is social anger against the government, and Bayrou didn’t see it,” he told CNBC in Paris.
What comes next remains unclear. CNBC reports that Deutsche Bank analysts predict Macron will try to swiftly install a new prime minister capable of commanding a majority, potentially through a deal with the centre-left Socialists, while the far-right National Rally is pushing for fresh parliamentary elections.
Meanwhile, France faces two nationwide strikes on September 10 and 18, adding pressure on Macron’s administration.
Pascal Cagni, president of C4 Industries, warned that the political stalemate is unlikely to end before the 2027 presidential election. “The truth is you’ve got three blocks, and none of them have won the elections. You will not resolve that until the presidential elections,” he told CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum.
